Precip Types Map for Midwest and First call on types OV!

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Precip Types Map for Midwest and First call on types OV!

#1 Postby Guest » Sat Jan 31, 2004 7:31 pm

Well here is what its looking like for you folks from Eastern KS to Western PA up to MN.

Snows. Right now i will say the heaviest snows will fall from about KC ne up into norther MO/Eastern NE and into all of IA and southern MN east to southern WI and northern IL. Someone here is gonna see well over a foot of snow when all is said and done. And as well expect blizzard like conditions in the snow areas. The problem is the snow will lose its intensity as it heads east into the direr air towards the lakes and farther away from the Low pressure itself which should make its way thru Southern MO and into Southern IL and then east from there into the OV. Most areas in the Dark blue should see atleast 4 inches of snow from this event.

ICE/Mixed precip. ST.Louis looks to be ground zero for a sig Ice event as does alot of areas within the red area circled on the map below. Someplaces as far north to the south side of KC could see some icing as well.

Areas farther east into IN and eastward right now is my first guess as to what the precip types may be like. Areas farthest east into OH and western PA could get a good dumping of snow either way as the system transfers its energy to the coast and the cold air rushes in before the heaviest precip gets thru these areas. I expect the cold air to hold on in alot of these areas as was the case last weekend however as like last weekend some of the layers above will probably go above freezing causing a mixed bag of precip especially from i70 south. Hard to say at this point exactly where the Snow/Mix and Rain lines will be however as the models are showing the heaviest precip wont be arriving untill most levels of the atmosphere is safely below freezing from about i70 north.

Check back for more updates on this.

Image
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David
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#2 Postby David » Sat Jan 31, 2004 7:46 pm

Good map... looks like ya got the heavy icing in the right spot too. :)
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#3 Postby ssom04 » Sat Jan 31, 2004 7:50 pm

thats looks great ! so southern minnesota is in that heavy band thats exactly where i live lol i just can't wait...........also its about time someone talks about minnesota on here besides our cold temps i feel honored just last night they said 2 inches at the most on NWS and now there saying close to 8-12
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#4 Postby FLguy » Sat Jan 31, 2004 7:56 pm

great map king. there probably will be a decent 8-12" (locally 14") band running from KC to the quad cities.
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#5 Postby sertorius » Sat Jan 31, 2004 9:00 pm

Awsome map king of weather!! I was wondering-do you think the ice/snow line has moved farther north? It seemed on an earlier run today of the eta and gfs, that the low basically moved over Kansas City-am I totally off base?? Mets in KC have taken KC down to about 3-4 inches even North of the River and here in Lawrence, (just 30 miles west of downtown KC) they have us in ice but then 5-7 inches of snow-which for a snow starved individual as myself is awesome, but man that 14 inch map this morning was something I've waited 10 years for!! Is there any chance that those 2 runs were hiccups and that the storm may track a little further South again, or is it just bringing in too much warm air and I'm off base on the track? Thanks for any comments you have time for!!
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#6 Postby Dj3 » Sat Jan 31, 2004 9:10 pm

Great Map KOW! Since pittsburgh isnt on there how much do you think we will get? In your discussion you said it looked good from kansas to western PA so i am just wondering your thoughts.
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#7 Postby wxbrad » Sat Jan 31, 2004 10:50 pm

Working on my P-types and timing here in the piedmont of the Carolinas. Looks plenty cold enough, but wery of the coastal low and inverted trough. Gotta wait for a few more meso-eta runs and take a look at the Bufkit sounding tomorrow. No one cares anyways here, at least till after the Panthers whip up on the Pats tomorrow night!

GO PANTHERS!!!!
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#8 Postby Guest » Sun Feb 01, 2004 2:13 am

wxbrad wrote:Working on my P-types and timing here in the piedmont of the Carolinas. Looks plenty cold enough, but wery of the coastal low and inverted trough. Gotta wait for a few more meso-eta runs and take a look at the Bufkit sounding tomorrow. No one cares anyways here, at least till after the Panthers whip up on the Pats tomorrow night!

GO PANTHERS!!!!


Hello and welcome to Storm2K Brad. Nice first post! I do look forward to seeing more of your Discussions! Keep them comming! I

I as well will be looking at those myself tomorrow and then maybe later on doing up a map for that region as well!
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Feb 01, 2004 2:24 am

wxbrad wrote:Working on my P-types and timing here in the piedmont of the Carolinas. Looks plenty cold enough, but wery of the coastal low and inverted trough. Gotta wait for a few more meso-eta runs and take a look at the Bufkit sounding tomorrow. No one cares anyways here, at least till after the Panthers whip up on the Pats tomorrow night!

GO PANTHERS!!!!


Hey wxbrad, and welcome to Storm2k ... IMHO, the coastal trough is being progged way too aggressive (as usual in CAD events) and this situation, although discombobulated, still doesn't look like the coastal trough can make a charge back inland and secondly, I just don't see a SFC low develop anywhere but offshore given the wedge has already penetrated the coastal waters and the gradient is already tightening up offshore ... dewpoints continue to fall in Coastal South Carolina (currently now down to 18º, and fairly close to FRZing. Evaporational cooling will have some affect on the temperatures as well down here since, unlike the last event since the atmosphere was already saturated ... this airmass is extremely dry.

SF
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#10 Postby wxbrad » Sun Feb 01, 2004 7:09 am

Thanks for the kind welcomes.

Kinda a weird damming event and this coastal low is wacked out! Stormfury I'm thinking along your lines, but the precip shield keeps making some good movement to the North. The dry air is my biggest conernced, the airmass over the Carolinas is much drier and colder then last weekend and wouldn't be surprised to see some elevated storms above the wedge Monday. Which would make for some real fun!

If you get a chance check out the really strange Winter Storm Watch GSP put out this morning. I'll have fun explaining this one to the viewers.
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#11 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Feb 01, 2004 10:22 pm

Welcome, Brad... it is nice to have you here at Storm2K!

I am also hoping for some thunderstorm activity, it didn't materilize with the last low pressure and supposed northward movement "up" the Florida peninsula.
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#12 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Mon Feb 02, 2004 6:48 am

Ummmm yeah.....how bout not? What the !@#% went wrong with this system!?! And the better question is what the heck was my problem, I know not to believe the hype and yet I jumped right on the bandwagon! I have saved in my Obs thread a forecast discussion that pegged this as a possible "Quad City Crippler"..... and now, our Winter Storm Watch is a Winter Weather Advisory and instead of snow there is freezing rain falling, and a nice coat of ice that tripled my trip home from work!! I can't help but be incredibly frustrated because before this storm there was at LEAST a week that went by that our temps didn't get out of the single digits....now in time for the storm I've been waiting for years to hit my area it warms up enough to produce ice? What gives!!! I should just move south.... :roll: So anywho, I think I'll take myself to bed now....and see how much ice I wake up to later on... can we say bust?
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#13 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Feb 02, 2004 7:37 am

Hang in there, Jacki ... Davenport, IA transitioned to mixed precip and will likely change to all snow before too long as the warm nose abates to your east.

SF
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