Tropical Update: 29 Jan

[senorpepr]

Still focusing on the Indian Ocean today. Elita has been "finalled" out by the JTWC. Meanwhile, 91S has been upgraded to 11S...

1) TC Elita (09S). Currently at 16.9S 46.8E (135nm N of Antananarivo, Madagascar) and moving SE at 12mph. Winds are 40mph and is expected to dissipate over Madagascar. JTWC has issued Elita's final warning.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh0904web.txt
https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/satshots/sh0904sair.jpg

2) TC Frank (11S). Currently at 15.8S 63.6E (430nm NE of Mauritius) and moving SW at 3mph. Winds are 105mph and is expected to continue strengthening. By the 36hr point, Frank should top off at 145mph. This, of course, is based more ona climatological rate of intensification. Expect a quasi-staionary upper level low to act as the main steering unit for Frank throughout the period. Regardless, this system bares keeping an eye on.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1004web.txt
https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/satshots/sh1004sams.jpg

3) TC 11S. This system was upgraded from Invest 91S. Currently at 7.7S 92.2E (400nm NW of Cocos Islands) and moving ESE at 12mph. Winds are 40mph and is expected to continue to strengthen into typhoon status throughout the period. By 48hrs, 11S should be at 80mph. 11S has weak outflow and weak to moderate vertical shear. This will slow the intensification process a bit. In any event, conditions will improve by the 24hr point.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1104web.txt
https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/satshots/sh1104sair.jpg

[ColdFront77]

It would be nice if we heard about tropical cyclones like Frank here in the United States during our winter... it is meteorological news.

BTW, the first, second and last (sixth) link are showing an error at 11:30 AM Eastern.

[Lindaloo]

I agree Tom.

[senorpepr]

Those links are time sensitive. The first two belonged to a "finalled" out storm, so those links would naturally die guickly. As for the last one, looks like JTWC doesn't have an IR shot anymore on 11S. Of course, you can get all the bulletins and graphics by going to the JTWC's website: https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like things have picked up in the South Indian Ocean!

[ColdFront77]

That they indeed have, Willie.

Mike, thanks for the information regarding the time senstive site. 100% understood.

[senorpepr]

no problem... on today's update I posted a link to JTWC instead... that way users can get the latest imagery, regardless to it being VIS, IR, or MSI.

As for the advisories... they should be up-to-date. The only time they wouldn't would be if a system is upgraded from INVEST status, or downgraded from a cyclone.