GFS Finally starting to sniff it out...

[wow]

18z is now phasing the s/w over the SE, jumping the storm farther S and E.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132m.gif

[TheWeatherZone]

If this baby moves just east alittle bit, then we are talking!



Mike~

[LMolineux]

Now that si mega wow. WOW great post as always and yes this is one of the big games we got going on as i seen/heard. Lets see how this plays out.

[Anonymous]

If this storm played out as this model run portrays...............What precip type would fall over N VA and about how much liquid qpf would it be?


-JEB

[WoodstockWX]

I would SO love for that feb 3rd storm to verify, being my birthday and all!!!!!

[wow]

...and here's comes Big Papa Feb 5-8 storm:

[iCez2003]

This definately has the makings of a big storm, based on GFS andforeign models I expect a storm to ride up the OV with a secondary developing on the coast. European models hinting at CAD forming once again. You can even see how the GFS builds a high to the north, don't take anything specifically this far out, but this looks like it could be a doozy.

[CaptinCrunch]

does this mean a WINTER WX event for D/FW????

[TheWeatherZone]

As mentioned, this is SIMILIAR to what JB was mentioning with redevlopment off the coast, can't wait to see what Mount Holly does later if this is a trend......RAIN and 40's...no offense but give me a break. They should at least mention the amount of uncertainty, but they sure seemed confident for rain. I hope they BUST badly, that'd be nice. We shall see..


Mike~

[paul e]

>> this storm played out as this model run portrays...............What precip type would fall over N VA and about how much liquid qpf would it be? <<

If you took this run literally, at 138 hrs, Western VA only would be getting snow... about 2-3" for westernmost parts. Then at 144 hrs, the 840 frz line comes crashing to the coast, but by then, the precip has moved on north, except for the very northernmost sections, which would be in line for maybe a couple of inches.. But thats only a literal interpretation. 6 days out, it doesnt mean much... Theres still plenty of time to 'keep hope alive' for your area...

[WEATHER53]

I think that low on the 2/4 is far enough down that with the high to the nith it will not be any movement into ohio valley but rather a gulf origin move along east coast, hopefully on or off and not inland(not west of norfolk for DC folks)

[Anonymous]

This run taken at face value sucks south of PHL, but clearly the trend is towards a coastal storm that could potentially really deliver for the Mid-Atlantic. Hopefully tonight's Euro will show coastal development... then I can start getting my hopes up.

[Anonymous]

This run taken at face value sucks south of PHL, but clearly the trend is towards a coastal storm that could potentially really deliver for the Mid-Atlantic. Hopefully tonight's Euro will show coastal development... then I can start getting my hopes up.

If a good coastal that dumps heavy snow accums for the Mid Atlantic does verify, I really hope that it also verifies for SNE and NE getting a lot of heavy snow from it as well...........


-JEB

[FLguy]

only problem i have is that the GFS is showing a +NAO and NO 50/50 low. because of that the high is allowed to slip off the coast, the winds turn SE and p-type (along the coast and in the I-95 corridor) changes to mostly rain (after some snow or mixing). now we are talking about DCA, BWI, PHL and NYC.

this does NOT include places such as MDT, UNV, BFD, SEG, AVP, ABE, MPO, MSV, BGM, ALB, PSF and others.

the other alternative to counter this is the SLP deepens rapidly further south, which draws the cold air in quickly on the backside. low pressure systems as they deepen draw air inward toward them. so areas on the backside would rapidly change to SN (from either a ZRA/IP or RA).

and it should also be noted that NOT ALL miller type B systems screw the DCA-PHL corridor. its really all a matter of where the 850mb low jumps to the coast, how rapidly the SLP area deepens, and where it develops. the further south the development the better off that area is. providing that cold air is around to produce snow.

also one would like to see a closed low at H5 as compared to an open s/w. and the trough should also have a negative tilt. which would allow for the development of a nice deformation zone.

another thing is if the SLP area takes longer to deepen along the east coast, or the mid levels don't close off, the best forcing (isentropic ascent and frontogenesis) will correspondingly be weaker. so at times mature banding (forced by the strong UVM) doesnt develop in enough time in a miller B scenario for the DCA-BWI-PHL corridor to get heavy snow. instead, NYC/BOX/BDL are more significantly impacted.

[Anonymous]

only problem i have is that the GFS is showing a +NAO and NO 50/50 low. because of that the high is allowed to slip off the coast, the winds turn SE and p-type (along the coast and in the I-95 corridor) changes to mostly rain (after some snow or mixing). now we are talking about DCA, BWI, PHL and NYC.

this does NOT include places such as MDT, UNV, BFD, SEG, AVP, ABE, MPO, MSV, BGM, ALB, PSF and others.

the other alternative to counter this is the SLP deepens rapidly further south, which draws the cold air in quickly on the backside. low pressure systyems as they deepen draw air inward toward them. so areas on the backside would rapidly change to SN (from either a ZRA/IP or RA).

and it should also be noted that NOT ALL miller type B systems screw the DCA-PHL corridor. its really all a matter of where the 850mb low jumps to the coast, how rapidly the SLP area deepens, and where it develops. the further south the development the better off that area is. providing that cold air is around to produce snow.

also one would like to see a closed low at H5 as compared to an open s/w. and the trough should also have a negative tilt. which would allow for the development of a nice deformation zone.

Excellent post!!!!


-JEB

[FLguy]

ok folks ---- lets clear the air here.

tonights run of the ECM has NO coastal re-development (miller B SECS) and takes a SLP area from the plains into the lakes and then canada sweeping a well defined cold front across the mid atlantic and northeast.

likely problem is that we are lacking:

A) the 50/50 low
B) greenland block (which the EC indicates is positive)
C) cold high pressure center.

so what happens is similar to what i was describing in my previous post. because the 50/50 low isnt there to hold in the high, it simply moves off the to the east and the SE wind takes over. which, yes, for many will imply RA.

this COULD (which special emphasis on the would could) be an icing event for portions of C/NE PA/NRN NJ/NY/ and new england. depending of course on the nature of the airmass close to the surface. too early however to speculate on that.

but since the high is gone, any CAD should quickly be routed and precip turns to rain after a period of ZRA/IP in areas where the low level arctic air is still in place. i am especially concerned about this given the snowcover in place. it was a BIG factor in the DEC 11-12 icing event across MD/PA and NJ in 2002.

[FLguy]

also the D7 ECM showed the STJ loading up once again for what may be another attack on the east coast later on in the day 8-11 period.

[hurricanedude]

Rain was all we were suppose to get from the last storm according to "MODELS"
We got 3-5 in of snow and 1/3 " of Ice accretion, so my thought on computer generated forecastsexpecially 5-7 days out....well put it this way, there garbage..the next ECM run will show a blizzard, then the next run nothing, so on so forth....guess its smart to just take it day by day, and even then the weather doesnt always cooperate..IE yesterday was suppose to be rain and 45....we had freezing drizzle and Freezing rain instead.....cant even get a 12 hour outlook correct...LOL....wait and see is my philosophy

[Stormsfury]

Rain was all we were suppose to get from the last storm according to "MODELS"
We got 3-5 in of snow and 1/3 " of Ice accretion, so my thought on computer generated forecastsexpecially 5-7 days out....well put it this way, there garbage..the next ECM run will show a blizzard, then the next run nothing, so on so forth....guess its smart to just take it day by day, and even then the weather doesnt always cooperate..IE yesterday was suppose to be rain and 45....we had freezing drizzle and Freezing rain instead.....cant even get a 12 hour outlook correct...LOL....wait and see is my philosophy

The difference is what FLguy pointed out, NO 50/50 LOW and a +NAO in which causes NO blocking for the damming high, and thusly just gets shoved right out the way to the east (and in turn, the winds come from the Southeast (thus bringing WAA - warm air advection), and NOT from the NNE or northeast ...

For this past weekend storm, guess what? 50/50 LOW and the NAO NEG ... locked the cold air in, and strongly ... BIG KEY here ...

Otherwise, will be monitoring VERY closely for obvious reasons ...

SF

[Anonymous]

also the D7 ECM showed the STJ loading up once again for what may be another attack on the east coast later on in the day 8-11 period.

you really believe a strong NEG NAO can go +NAO in a matter of a few days?