Mt Holly Goes Rain Mon-tuesday

Heady Guy · #1 Postby **Heady Guy** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 3:59 pm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/AFDPHI

Seem to think a big warm push of air.

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:01 pm

Heady Guy wrote:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/AFDPHI

Seem to think a big warm push of air.

Well, if they think rain, then we get rain............

-JEB

Chris the Weather Man · #3 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:03 pm

They have no idea, what will happen.... It is still many days away...

smiley · #4 Postby **smiley** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:04 pm

Time to remove lips from the buttocks of the GFS Mt. Holly!

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:05 pm

I looks like rain to me as well..As I said in another thread, cold air OR lack of is going to be a problem.

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:05 pm

smiley wrote:Time to remove lips from the buttocks of the GFS Mt. Holly!

LOL LOL LOL LOL!!!!

-JEB

Heady Guy · #7 Postby **Heady Guy** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:08 pm

I guess JB's Vodka Cold is not happening.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:11 pm

Heady Guy wrote:I guess JB's Vodka Cold is not happening.

So that is what Joe B is calling the big cold outbreak these days?

-JEB

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:13 pm

Heady Guy wrote:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/AFDPHI

Seem to think a big warm push of air.

I doubt they were "thinking" at all -- they took a quick peek at the 12z GFS run and copied it to the zones, more than likely. I love this quote:

THE NEXT MAJOR STORM COMING IN MON NGT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT ON A 60 KT 8H LLJ. MOST OF THE STORM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

They sound so sure of themselves -- "it WILL be in the form of rain and be accompanied by a surge of warm air" -- NOT "one of the models suggests it will..." -- gimme a break. They then go on to ramble about possible flooding due to all the melting snow and warm air. This NWS office must be particularly bad because even LWX is including rain OR snow (a wise decision from this far out), and we're farther south. Let's remember that concern they had about massive melting next week when, more than likely, PHL will be in the 30's or lower, possibly dealing with more wintry precipitation.

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:14 pm

TroyNJ wrote:I looks like rain to me as well..As I said in another thread, cold air OR lack of is going to be a problem.

im surprised you would model hug the gfs with its terrible handling of CAD.

JCT777 · #11 Postby **JCT777** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:14 pm

Unless this storm tracks up the App Mtns, I don't see how it is going to be a rain event for my area. And if it is supposed to track up the Apps, I would have a few questions - Is the NAO going neutral or positive? Did the Greenland block break down?

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:16 pm

no no no--this will not be rainstorm--not with NEG NAO and high pressure of NE canada--commn guys--use some common sense lol...

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:17 pm

Remember the mods tend to underforecast Cold Air Damming.

-JEB

TheWeatherZone · #14 Postby **TheWeatherZone** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:19 pm

LOL at Mount Holly, they said the storm the past few days would turn to rain for some time..... :roll:

Mike~

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:19 pm

Ji wrote:no no no--this will not be rainstorm--not with NEG NAO and high pressure of NE canada--commn guys--use some common sense lol...

It could however be a mix (i.e., frzra/sleet) for the MA because of a warmer mid-layer, but probably not an all-rain event.

-JEB

d · #16 Postby d » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:20 pm

Oh please, how many times this far out has the GFS eroded the cold air. I don't have enough fingers and toes to count on. Just wait and see by the time the weekend rolls around.

Anonymous · #17 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:21 pm

Jeb wrote:
Ji wrote:no no no--this will not be rainstorm--not with NEG NAO and high pressure of NE canada--commn guys--use some common sense lol...

It could however be a mix (i.e., frzra/sleet) for the MA because of a warmer mid-layer, but probably not an all-rain event.

-JEB

agree--hopefully we can squeeze out some snow but a mix is most likely...but who knows at this point...the less the the cutting towards the lakes the better--hopefully the whole thing would just track south and east.

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:21 pm

Jeb wrote:It could however be a mix (i.e., frzra/sleet) for the MA because of a warmer mid-layer, but probably not an all-rain event.

-JEB

I agree completely. NWS Mt Holly should be ashamed of this attempt at a forecast.

Anonymous · #19 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:21 pm

Ji wrote:
TroyNJ wrote:I looks like rain to me as well..As I said in another thread, cold air OR lack of is going to be a problem.

im surprised you would model hug the gfs with its terrible handling of CAD.

OK, I confess just trying to stir the pot. :lol:

The GFS is on crack BUT it's not the only model showing rain for the upper MA.

Mt Holly Goes Rain Mon-tuesday

Mt Holly Goes Rain Mon-tuesday

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