EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND US LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2004
The recent upturn in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity which began in 1995 is expected to continue in 2004. We anticipate an above average probability for Atlantic basin major hurricanes and U.S. major hurricane landfall.
his forecast is based on new research by the authors,
along with current meteorological information through November 2003
By William M. Gray1 and Philip J. Klotzbach2 with assistance from William Thorson3 and Jason Connor4
[This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide
Web: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... index.html] - also,
Brad Bohlander and Thomas Milligan, Colorado State University Media Representatives (970-491-6432) are available to answer various questions about this forecast.
Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 email: barb@tutt.atmos.colostate.edu
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2004
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 5 December 2003
Climatology (in parentheses) Forecast for 2004
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 55
Hurricanes (H)(5.9) 7
Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5) 30
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0) 6
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) (72.7) 85
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 125
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 68% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 48% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
Sounds like we're in for an interesting Atlantic Hurricane season
He will put out the next forecast on april 2nd. 
