An update on accumulations .... SECS threat lining up

[HM]

The north trend WRT the 500MB low is clearly verifying per wv loop but there is a well defined wall in SE canada, the 50-50. I expect the h5 low to hault in OH / MI (the N s/w in plains will come close to phasing w/ it but not quite) and then make a progression ESE through PA and NJ. This will allow the deformation zone to setup across southern new england, NYC area and N NJ. CLASSIC MILLER B model madness and sharp accumulations.

WRT to my last forecast, majority of the 12z data was gung ho on big accumulations but 18z eta began a new trend. IT was argued that the data was incorrectly initialized, missing key features or just flat out wrong ---- BUT using strictly CLIMO an H5 low in that position means snow is NORTH of PHL. IF it slides ESE, it would have to get to MD for even consideration iN PHL to be w/in the bigger accumulations. AT ONE point the MM5 had the low in VA! BUT no more ....

With that being said I dont feel any model is correctly handling the situation per the ensembles, mm5, rgem .... SO I still expect major snowfall in the NYC area including N NJ SE NY and CT / RI / ma. SHARP cutoff between TTN and PHL w/ ziltch amounts SW of PHL / S NJ. SHARP coastal boudary is taking shape across NJ which should pretty much portray the outcome tonight.

UVM, while fast, is intense and will support CSI banding / convection w/in the cold sector snow AND will contain rates 2 inches/hr or EVEN greater in some instances. PIVOTING will happen in time for new england w/ NYC on edge and NJ OUT of the loop this time b/c transfer happens to late at mid levels. ALTHOUGH w/ h5 low diving in, some SHSN will be continuing through WED afternoon in PA / NJ / NY / new england.

TOTAL accumulations were TOO high in original forecast b/c the next s/w is diving in here and the h5 low is further north than anticipated. I expect 8-16 inches of snow across the deformation zone in southern new england, NYC area and N NJ / SE ny and far NE PA. THIS includes long island. THe wall will keep it out of BOS, only 2-5 inches there. JUST south of deformation zone, expect some ice accural, sleet to change to snow across C NJ into NW burbs of PHL and accumulate 4-8 inches. Less than 4 inches south of this area and nothing south of PHL. PHL 1-3 inches w/ more ice than anything else.

THREATS down the road ..... 1/30-2/1 .... 2/3-2/5 .... 2/7-2/9
The negative NAO block continues to retrograde as energy undercuts in this very convoluted pattern. One of these events will likely be major, and data keying in on the first two to be big events w/ first PERHAPS a miss, second a hit and last one a follow-up manitoba mauler to the second storm.

MJO is still DRY w/ no signs of heating up, in that case the oncoming wet phase may be delayed some what. WHATS NEW! THE MJO has not had a consistent wave timing all winter and has caused my warm / cold periods in the seasonal to be off.

[Colin]

What about the ABE area? I kinda am right in between NE PA and FAR NW burbs of Philly. A little area called EAST CENTRAL PA.

[HM]

What about the ABE area? I kinda am right in between NE PA and FAR NW burbs of Philly. A little area called EAST CENTRAL PA.

Usually I dont answer weenie questions BUT this is b/c we need to establish what I mean. BY NW Burbs / C NJ I mean leigh valley as well. FAR NE PA means what it means, not ABE. SO ABE and TTN both in 4-8, ok buddy -- good luck though. YOU will be on higher end of 4-8 while im on lower end b/c of general mixing. SO 6-8 locally in ABE seems right in a quick burst this evening.

[HM]

Also quick note on the ice .... potential exists for a layer of freezing rain of 1/4" OR even more across parts of SE PA and SW / C NJ before it changes over to snow tonight then ends. SO while snow accumulations in PHL / local burbs are less than 4 inches, it could fall on top of a significant ice accural. IN N NJ a solid 6+ b/c of less ice and more significant snowfall / uvm.

[dwang]

Great read as usual HM. Well thought out and great explaination.


Dave

[Steve H.]

Colin is no weenie, but a nice contributer. That said, think your take is pretty much on HM. Expect my ole town of Syosset, LI to do well on this event, and if the ULL cuts off, and a little further SE, they could get thumped good!! Wish I was there. Still waiting for snow in Palm Bay

[chadtm80]

He didnt say colin was a weenie, just said he dosent answer "weenie" questions.. lol

[HM]

Colin is no weenie, but a nice contributer. That said, think your take is pretty much on HM. Expect my ole town of Syosset, LI to do well on this event, and if the ULL cuts off, and a little further SE, they could get thumped good!! Wish I was there. Still waiting for snow in Palm Bay

I know who he is, have known him for years and said "weenie question" which it is ----

PROBLEM is the models dont have it further SE / closed which is the problem, if that were the case MY original call would have been more suffice. ITS ashame b/c w/ such a blocking setup, it would have been 1-2ft type snows. ITS the next s/w and lack of pna ridge which keep it moving AND more N. ALTHOUGH dont be surprised for a couple hour period where the low sits there for a bit off NJ coast then starts flying just N of east into atlantic as h5 low dives in. THIS is why someone may get up in the 12-16 inch range in CT / long island areas.

[JCT777]

Nice analysis, HM. The snow amounts you outlined seem very reasonable. And it is nice to see there a number of threats in the next 10 to 12 days.

[Four Seasons]

great as usual HM. Hope you are right. I wonder when the rubber band will break. Mid Feb? Time will tell.

[HM]

HERE we go folks! SIGNIFICANT icing in mid atlantic, but this time the N mid atlantic instead of SC /NC. I feel for those people in NC / SC, my god thats awful.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0901 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2004


AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY / CENTRAL PA / WRN MD / ERN WV PANHANDLE /
NRN VA...


CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN


VALID 271501Z - 271900Z


FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.


LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES WARMING SLOWLY ACROSS
WESTERN PA AND MUCH OF WV WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW NOW INDICATED NEAR THE WRN END
OF LAKE ERIE. MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.


LARGE BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN -- WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS -- CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN PA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF PA / ALLEGANY
MOUNTAINS OF NY EWD -- PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN FRONT.


WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
SPREADING ACROSS VERY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS...EXPECT A SEVERAL-HOUR
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN. RAINFALL RATES
MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 1/4 INCH PER HOUR...WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH PER
HOUR IN GENERAL.

[JCT777]

Thanks HM. I hope we don't get a lot of freezing rain, but that outlook seems pretty ominous.

[HM]

[Lisa]

I live in S.W. West Virginia---it has been raining here for about the past 3 hours. Some local mets said our high today would be in the mid-40's....well, we are now sitting at 36 degrees and have dropped 2 degrees in the past hour. Local mets have called for our forecast to be--rain to sleet then to snow today and snow this evening--with an accumulation of about an inch....
Any opinions on this??? Appears we may be getting the weather forecasted for the northern panhandle of the state.

[chadtm80]

rains should end my noonish Lisa then you should actually drop a few degrees after the reain ends.. So dont expect to see the mid 40's.. You have reached your peak.. Should get down to about 20 tonight and a high of about 30 or so tommorow

[Anonymous]

Thanks for posting that SPC MD, HM! I am in that region and was surprised to hear .1-.25"/hr expected because LWX only has us in an advisory for a tenth or so of ZR throughout the day! If we really see rates like that for a few hours that could be problematic, needless to say.

[Steve H.]

Moderate to heavy Freezing rain!! This could lead to additional massive power outages. Wonder how far east the zr will get before the coastal kicks in and turns the winds around? BTW, you're right, was a weenie question. How much for Palm Bay

[stormtrackerFDK1]

Saw this and I think LWX may need to take heed. They are only expecting .10 to .20 inch of QPF TOTAL.

[Stephanie]

We've had freezing drizzle all morning - I did not go into work today since I normally have an hour drive. I don't do ice! Even if I made it down to Atlantic City in one piece, I may have been stuck down there.

[TheWeatherZone]

Thanks for the update HM!

Mike~