Thoughts from a lonely Midwesterner

[silwx79]

I think with as poorly as the models have done in the past few days, it would be very hard to determine how much snow that we might get. I would not be suprised if this system doesn't end up dumping more on Illinois than some forecast are calling for. Here are some reasons.

A) Surface reports from across middle Ky, Tenn and points south show warm air moving north with dew points in the 50s and upper 40s.

B) NWS and models, GFS, busted badly across this area, just north of I64. Forecast called for a high of 40 F. We made it to 30 or 31.

C) Snow is beginning to pick up across SW Missouri and Kansas. My computer won't down load any radar loops, only current, but from other observatuions it looks like the precip is expanding and intensifying.

D) Observations at STL and Belleville currently show snow falling.

E) Most importantly, the column is already saturated. There will be little or no virga with this system. Also with all of the moisture already in place, I don't know how the models handled that.

F) One other thing that is interesting, whether it will effect Illinois and Indiana I don't know. There is a lot of moisture still coming off the Gulf head across Alabama in Ga., again not foreseen by a lot of models, any way that is what I read in another thread. Now this storm is supposed to have impressive dynamics associated with it. If this is the case I would think a strong system would easily pull some of that moisture north and west.

Please offer some feed back I am only novice, but I thought some of these things were interesting.

[wx247]

Good evening. We have had 1" as of an hour or so ago. I am getting ready to trudge back outside and measure again. I am in SW Mo and it looks you got some snow headed your way.

[Lafayette WX]

I think with as poorly as the models have done in the past few days, it would be very hard to determine how much snow that we might get. I would not be suprised if this system doesn't end up dumping more on Illinois than some forecast are calling for. Here are some reasons.

A) Surface reports from across middle Ky, Tenn and points south show warm air moving north with dew points in the 50s and upper 40s.

B) NWS and models, GFS, busted badly across this area, just north of I64. Forecast called for a high of 40 F. We made it to 30 or 31.

C) Snow is beginning to pick up across SW Missouri and Kansas. My computer won't down load any radar loops, only current, but from other observatuions it looks like the precip is expanding and intensifying.

D) Observations at STL and Belleville currently show snow falling.

E) Most importantly, the column is already saturated. There will be little or no virga with this system. Also with all of the moisture already in place, I don't know how the models handled that.

F) One other thing that is interesting, whether it will effect Illinois and Indiana I don't know. There is a lot of moisture still coming off the Gulf head across Alabama in Ga., again not foreseen by a lot of models, any way that is what I read in another thread. Now this storm is supposed to have impressive dynamics associated with it. If this is the case I would think a strong system would easily pull some of that moisture north and west.

Please offer some feed back I am only novice, but I thought some of these things were interesting.

Your thoughts may be right. HPC just updated their Heavy Snow Discussion. Looks good for C IL and WC IN.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html