LWX on Icing Potential Tomorrow

[Anonymous]

TUE...MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A SLUG OF MOISTURE IN THE MID-LVLS (90% RH IN THE 700-500 LYR) AND GOOD LIFT AFTER 18Z AS HEIGHTS FALL AND SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF HAT AND TRACKS NORTH RESULTING A 3-6HR PERIOD OF MDT-HVY PRECIP MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 2PM-6PM. WITH COLD AIR DAMMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA AND ALREADY A WARM NOSE SEEN ON 18Z IAD SOUNDING THIS WILL BE A FZRA EVENT FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT FOR FAR SRN MD. NEW 18Z META INDICATES ABT A QUARTER INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ISSUED A
WINTER WX ADVISORY TO COVER THE -FZDZ THRU NOON TOMORROW. ALSO INTERERSTING TO NOTE IS THAT ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS VALID 21Z FOR DCA SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 100 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WITH INDEX OF 30 SHOWALTER OF +1C AND TT OF 53. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS LFC ON SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY HIGH AROUND 600MB AND IT WILL BE VERY TOUGH TO ATTAIN. ANY WAY SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP CAN GET INVOLVED HERE INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMTS. BY THE WAY SPC DY2 HAS OUTLOOKED AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER TOMORROW. THE LAST TIME IAD EXPERIENCED -TSRA FZRA WAS DEC 16 2000. PROB LOOKS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO MENTION ANY THUNDER. FZRA WILL END AS BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN TUE EVENING.

[stormtrackerFDK1]

TUE...MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A SLUG OF MOISTURE IN THE MID-LVLS (90% RH IN THE 700-500 LYR) AND GOOD LIFT AFTER 18Z AS HEIGHTS FALL AND SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF HAT AND TRACKS NORTH RESULTING A 3-6HR PERIOD OF MDT-HVY PRECIP MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 2PM-6PM. WITH COLD AIR DAMMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA AND ALREADY A WARM NOSE SEEN ON 18Z IAD SOUNDING THIS WILL BE A FZRA EVENT FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT FOR FAR SRN MD. NEW 18Z META INDICATES ABT A QUARTER INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ISSUED A
WINTER WX ADVISORY TO COVER THE -FZDZ THRU NOON TOMORROW. ALSO INTERERSTING TO NOTE IS THAT ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS VALID 21Z FOR DCA SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 100 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WITH INDEX OF 30 SHOWALTER OF +1C AND TT OF 53. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS LFC ON SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY HIGH AROUND 600MB AND IT WILL BE VERY TOUGH TO ATTAIN. ANY WAY SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP CAN GET INVOLVED HERE INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMTS. BY THE WAY SPC DY2 HAS OUTLOOKED AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER TOMORROW. THE LAST TIME IAD EXPERIENCED -TSRA FZRA WAS DEC 16 2000. PROB LOOKS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO MENTION ANY THUNDER. FZRA WILL END AS BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN TUE EVENING.

Yep, and this is what I was talking about with you in the other thread.

[Guest]

TUE...MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A SLUG OF MOISTURE IN THE MID-LVLS (90% RH IN THE 700-500 LYR) AND GOOD LIFT AFTER 18Z AS HEIGHTS FALL AND SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF HAT AND TRACKS NORTH RESULTING A 3-6HR PERIOD OF MDT-HVY PRECIP MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 2PM-6PM. WITH COLD AIR DAMMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA AND ALREADY A WARM NOSE SEEN ON 18Z IAD SOUNDING THIS WILL BE A FZRA EVENT FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT FOR FAR SRN MD. NEW 18Z META INDICATES ABT A QUARTER INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ISSUED A
WINTER WX ADVISORY TO COVER THE -FZDZ THRU NOON TOMORROW. ALSO INTERERSTING TO NOTE IS THAT ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS VALID 21Z FOR DCA SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 100 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WITH INDEX OF 30 SHOWALTER OF +1C AND TT OF 53. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS LFC ON SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY HIGH AROUND 600MB AND IT WILL BE VERY TOUGH TO ATTAIN. ANY WAY SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP CAN GET INVOLVED HERE INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMTS. BY THE WAY SPC DY2 HAS OUTLOOKED AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER TOMORROW. THE LAST TIME IAD EXPERIENCED -TSRA FZRA WAS DEC 16 2000. PROB LOOKS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO MENTION ANY THUNDER. FZRA WILL END AS BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN TUE EVENING.

Yep, and this is what I was talking about with you in the other thread.

Looking very icy in DC. (Off topic a moment) BTW good to see you Stormtracker! I noticed you have moved as well. How is that part of PG County these days? John Bayne school still there or did they finally tear it down? Believe it or not i went to that school so many years ago (20+yrs ago). Good to see you!

[stormtrackerFDK1]

[quote="king of weather


Looking very icy in DC. (Off topic a moment) BTW good to see you Stormtracker! I noticed you have moved as well. How is that part of PG County these days? John Bayne school still there or did they finally tear it down? Believe it or not i went to that school so many years ago (20+yrs ago). Good to see you![/quote]


Actually, I'm in Frederick County now (more snow!). Never heard of John Bayne school acutally!

[Guest]

[quote="king of weather


Looking very icy in DC. (Off topic a moment) BTW good to see you Stormtracker! I noticed you have moved as well. How is that part of PG County these days? John Bayne school still there or did they finally tear it down? Believe it or not i went to that school so many years ago (20+yrs ago). Good to see you!

Actually, I'm in Frederick County now (more snow!). Never heard of John Bayne school acutally![/quote]

Intresting. Two towns with almost the same name in MD. Good move btw cant blame you. Should do alot better with snow up that way. Either way good seeing you!