18z GFS

TheWeatherZone · #1 Postby **TheWeatherZone** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:43 pm

Alot wetter than the ETA, and its the GFS! LOL

Mike~

Heady Guy · #2 Postby **Heady Guy** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:45 pm

That is very interesting.

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dabiggiu · #3 Postby **dabiggiu** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:49 pm

yeah... looks better for C NJ, N MA, but not as good for S/C NY, CT or RI

OLD 12z

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 2_048l.gif

NEW 18z

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 2_042l.gif

BL03 · #4 Postby **BL03** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:49 pm

Interesting look how S NJ and PHL get srewed!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p36_048l.gif

Colin · #5 Postby **Colin** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:50 pm

Nice!

paul e · #6 Postby **paul e** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:51 pm

Looks identical to the 12z run.. So, at least if the ETA was some kind of a trend, its only a trend within itself, and not passed on to the GFS as well. Thank god for small miracles. Also I think its important to remember that no matter what the model shows, we simply cannot expect a change in location of 25 miles one way or the other to be a statistically significant occurance. The models simply cannot forecast yet to that degree. So while a tiny displacement in the 18z eta run might create meaningful results in the forecast maps, theres absolutely no reason to believe this kind of change will be significant when the real event occurs.

TheWeatherZone · #7 Postby **TheWeatherZone** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:52 pm

It appears this run is better for PHL than the 12z. Maybe I'm not looking at it right, but heavier precip is now over C-N NJ. A trend in the right direction? Lets hope so. I'd like to hear HM's thoughts on this. GFS is wetter than the "wet" ETA... Good? Hopefully we will see how they trend over tonight.

Mike~

Heady Guy · #8 Postby **Heady Guy** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:52 pm

PHL is not screwed at all.

TheWeatherZone · #9 Postby **TheWeatherZone** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:56 pm

Heady Guy wrote:PHL is not screwed at all.

Agreed..........

Mike~

CaluWxBill · #10 Postby **CaluWxBill** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:56 pm

BL03 wrote:Interesting look how S NJ and PHL get srewed!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p36_048l.gif

Yep 4 to 8 inches is getting screwed

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 5:15 pm

what kind of ice could we see in central NJ

BL03 · #12 Postby **BL03** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 5:15 pm

I was joking! WELL that went bad! I thought you would get it! :roll:

From that run it is still in for PHL to get a nice snowfall! :wink:

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 5:27 pm

how much for philadelphia, ABC 7 NY says 6-12 for my area.

18z GFS

18z GFS

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