ON the 12z ETA

[Guest]

it should be noted that on 12z ETA Tuesday and Tuesday night -- the beginning of the event the ETA clearly shows that over I-95 cities it is too warm for snow at the START.

of course by By 6z WED its snowing like hell... even on the coast of NJ... and Just inland its all snow.... CT may be the big winner here....

But I saw andy's post which is a borderline wish cast since the Low level warm never seems to get mentioned. This is a classic Miller B storm but the SECS checklist states that when the primary is deeper than 1008 MB -- which is the case here--- then the threat of low level mild air increases. I am Not certain that PHILLY is going to get a Big snow here...

It is importnat to realize that in MILLER b snowstorms rule #1 is that SOME ALWAYS GETS SCREWED.

someone mentioned 30 DEC 2000 earlier.

BINGO....

[Anonymous]

let south NJ get screwed and points south of there, it's out turn here in central NJ to get pounded with 10+ not just a lousy 3-6

[Heady Guy]

Thanks for your view. I was not sold on PHL getting big snows.

[donsutherland1]

Excellent points, DT. I'm certainly not sold on the outcome shown by the ETA but do like the reinforcement of the idea that a significant snowfall is possible before the storm heads away.

[paul e]

I think that my area of White Plains (central westchester county) and north may never see the freezing rain, at least, not in a way that will significantly cut down on accumulations.

[Anonymous]

Thanks for your view. I was not sold on PHL getting big snows.

Dave did not say Phila. won't he said he isn't so sure!

[Anonymous]

Thanks for the info, DT. Are you still going for the "major ice storm" for the Mid Atlantic tomorrow, or is that falling apart now?

[jdt]

I agree, some one could get screwed and the most likely area looks like Philly. Not saying it will happen just could. Not sure how they made out last night but probably nothing big and with number 2 starting as mixed then to snow they may catch the SW edge to early to get into the bigtime snows. Again not a certainty just a thought. As for the big winners at this time NNJ (especially NW NJ because of less if any mixing) NE PA, interior SE NY into interior Southern NE. 12"+ in those areas looking likely at this time. For NYC metro, LI, Coastal Southern NE because of the chance of mixed precip early on 6-12" the safe call for now. And Southern NJ/ Philly 4-8", again mixing 1st half of event cuts down accums along with catching the SW edge of precip shield. Lowest totals likely extreme SE portions because of extended period of rain/mix precip.

By the way DT, how off do you think the eta qpf is? 2-2.5" across NNJ & SE NY (if that was correct interior areas with little mix could see a solid 2 feet) I'm not buying into that much...yet. See what 12z gfs shows.

[Heady Guy]

I know what he said. He said he is not sold on PHL yet & someone gets screwed somewhere.

[White_Mtn_Wx]

Here's the snowfall map from 12/30/2000.



As DT said, the ETA paints a similar picture but with SLIGHTLY higher snowfall amounts S & W of PHL.

[Anonymous]

I live north of philadelphia and I'm definately nof south new jersey. I live in central NJ and find it very had to believe that I will be screwed from this storm. It looks ver good for plenty of snow for me doesn't it.

[NJSnowFreak]

I got 11.5" on Dec 2000....and I'm a little further inland now so if it's the same as that storm I'll be happy...

[Anonymous]

wow, i'm in the middel of that line so 13'' or so, huh.
what about totals to the northeast, do you think that they could be higher too.

[NJSnowFreak]

I'm wondering about between 0z WED and 6z WED ...does that precip that falls on the 6z WED map fall BEFORE the precip turns to snow? Or is that showing precip between 6z and 12z?

[JCT777]

Nice map for the Dec 30, 2000 event, White_Mtn_Wx. I suspect something similar could occur with this event as well, although temps weren't really an issue for that storm. Either it snowed or did nothing. With this event, someone could go from mod to heavy sleet or freezing rain - to light snow or no precip at all.