12z ETA = Going to be historic hit...

[Anonymous]

so everyone from PHY to NYC could see 12+

[iCez2003]

NYC run, jus run!

[Colin]

Looks like I'm going to get blasted...my god.

[Anonymous]

You lucky bastards in N NJ! This is definitely Dec 2000 all over again if this run verifies.

[Tip]

Looks like the upper level support for the storm is just now rounding the bend from the panhandle of Texas.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... e&itype=wv

[dabiggiu]

this is total precip for ONLY 12 HOURS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 2_048l.gif

This is truley remarkable. *****IF***** the ETA were to verify, NW NJ, CT and LI would be pushing 2 FEET.

[BL03]

NYC run, jus run!

[jdt]

The 42hr QPF is a historic storm for NJ/E PA/NYC provided they're all snow. Looks like easily over a foot in 6 hours for NW NJ.

DAMMIT, didn't you guys already get this on DEC 30 2000? It's my turn now !

Looking good for NNJ, NYC etc but especially for NE PA, NW NJ and interior SE NY and then further NE for interior Southern NE. Should not leave out coastal Southern NE and LI even though mixed precip for these coastal areas is possible early on. These type of significant snowfalls are not all that uncommon in NW NJ. Have lived here for almost almost 33 years and can expect a major snowfall on the order of 18-24" on a average of about every 2-4 years. Sometimes more often sometimes less. But looking good at this point. I would not get carried away just yet so just say 12"...+? for NE PA, NW NJ, Interior SE NY into Interior Southern NE with 6-12" for the rest of northern NJ, NYC metro, LI & Coastal Southern NE. Southern half of NJ into Philly about 4-8" because of mixing issues with lowest number SE portions. Trends can support higher totals across the entire area but prefer to hold back till later this afternoon before releasing 1-2' type snowfall amounts (If warranted).

By the way Dec 30th 2000 gave my area 18-30" and for me personaly about 24" with 30" about 10 miles to my NE.

[JCT777]

If the last 12 hours of precip from the storm is all snow, and if the ETA verifies (those are some big IF's, eh? ) - then my area is easily looking at 8 to 12 inches of snow.

[Anonymous]

what are we looking at in Central NJ? I know that IF the models verify that i will see at least 10'' inches or more.

[NJSnowFreak]

The question I'd ask is how much of that precip in the 42 hr falls as snow...

The 32 degree surface temp line at 32h runs just south of philly, but those in NJ south and east will be screwed as much of that precip will be plain rain. And even in philly itself the 850 temps will be too high to support snow, so sleet in philly.

At 42h the 32 degree line clears most of NJ but by then the heavy precip has already fallen.

[Eddie]

This looks like one of those storms where if you go like 30 miles N outside the city it will be snowing like hell. Gotta go, see you guys for the 18z runs.

[RU848789]

levans - not trying to give you a hard time, but do you really consider yourself to be in Central Jersey, at least meteorologically? Most folks think of Monmouth, Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon and maybe Mercer and Union as Central Jersey (and coastal Monmouth, meteorologically, is definitely a far cry from the rest of CNJ). Brick is basically the Jersey Shore at the extreme NE part of Ocean County and very often gets the worst of it with regard to being on the wrong side (the rain side) of the rain/snow line, vs. Middlesex and certainly vs. the more inland counties of Somerset and Hunterdon. Brick often even does worse than NW Burlington and the Philly metro area. I have a good friend in Pt. Pleasant, a few miles north of you and we always compare snow amounts and he's very often pissed. So if there's a good chance of mixing, Brick will be on the wrong side and I might even be on the wrong side (but for not as long).

[Anonymous]

i understand, but brick is not Pt. Pleasant, Pt. Pleasant is on the shore, Brick is not. Well it is but not as close. I live wright on the boarder of Monmouth county. So I consider myself C NJ. Because I'm definitely not south NJ. I REFUSE TO SIT HERE AND READ THAT I GET THE ROYAL SNOW SCREW JOB!!!!!! THIS F***EN SUCKS. I WILL GET AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW. I MAY NOT GET 18+ BUT 6+ IS GOOD FOR ME. THIS STORM HAS BEEN NOTHING BUT SH*T FOR ME. i GOT OFF FROM SCHOOL TODAY AND PLAN ON GETTING OFF TOMORROW IF THERE IS ENOUGH ICE. I PLAN ON GETTING PLENTY OF SNOW. I WILL NOT LET OTHERS TELL ME OTHERWISE. THE ONLY REASON I LIKE SNOW IS THAT IT GETS ME A NICE SNOW DAY. I WILL NOT HAVE THAT TAKEN AWAY FROM ME!!!!!!!!!!

GOD, I LIVE IN CENTRAL NJ AND THATS FINAL.

there now i feel better.

[Anonymous]

this is total precip for ONLY 12 HOURS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 2_048l.gif

This is truley remarkable. *****IF***** the ETA were to verify, NW NJ, CT and LI would be pushing 2 FEET.

You Lucky, lucky, lucky dogs you!!! WOW, Is all I can say!!!



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[R0bb0871]

lol Jeb NW Jersey here...I'll send some snow your way

[Craig286]

Doesnt look to bad for us Jeb (unless its ice)


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 2_036l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 2_042l.gif

Shows a decent amount for NVA but the question will be whether it is freezing rain/sleet/or snow

[Colin]

Looking great for me...12-24 inches is a good bet! :o

[JCT777]

Colin - I would be concerned that (A) the ETA is overestimating the QPF, (B) more of the precip will be sleet or freezing rain than you might be thinking and (C) the storm may develop further north than what is currently being shown. Based on these concerns, I would say 3 to 6 for my area, and maybe 5 to 10 for your area at this point - subject to adjustment as this gets closer and a few more model runs are behind us.

[RU848789]

Dude, don't take it personally, but Brick is about 4 miles inland from the ocean, which only makes a slight difference vs. the immediate coast. And you're not northeast of Philly - in fact you're not even ENE - more like EENE if there is such a thing (i.e., about 10 degrees north of due east). Better than AC for snow, but not better than Camden, generally and much worse than Edison or Trenton, generally. But if you want to wish yourself into snow, be my guest. I do hope, however that we all get snow, so everyone's happy - I'm just not going to count on it yet.

http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp?ov ... LPxg%3d%3d