00z ETA CRUSHES WESTERN NC/SC WITH ICE!

[Stormsfury]

NWS says that the northeast piedmont will changeover to rain late in the afternoon tomorrow thus limiting freezing rain acretion.

I seriously doubt that, based on RDU's soundings which doesn't even show a warm nose throughout the entire atmosphere as of 10 pm...and looking at the continuing temperature drop tonight, it's gonna take an overwhelmingly strong surge of WAA to overcome the cold air dome, and in fact, COULD serve to enhance the cold air with steady precip ...

Earlier today, the precip caused the low level deck to glaciate, or freeze the low-level cloud deck and thusly, lowered the 950mb-850mb temperatures to allow more in the way of snow/sleet ... and also, notice that aided the temperature drop along with the overrunning which channeled the low-level cold air dome and it thusly rose skyward, and more cold air driven by NNE winds replaced that rising air ... hence, even colder ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

This is an amazing and classic CAD wedge ...

Southeast Current Temps

SF

[raysum]

Raysum wrote

The latest GSP discussion....WSW all day tomorrow

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WL BE MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE ZONES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST ETA AND GFS DEVELOP FRONTAL WAVE WHICH RIDES UP THE SE COAST
ON MON. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER AND FARTHER WEST
W/THIS FEATURE...AND THE ETA NOW HAS OVER AN INCH OF PCPN ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE CWA MON. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER E...BUT BRINGS
SIG PCPN TO JUST ABOUT ALL THE CWA E OF THE MTNS. CONSIDERING THE
HGHT FALLS TALKING PLACE NOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND THE MODEL/S
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WEST...IT LOOKS LIKE A SIG PCPN EVENT ACROSS
THE CWA TMRW.

THIS IS NOT GOOD. THE ETA IS ADVERTISING SFC TEMPS TO RISE NO
HIGHER THAN ABOUT 27 DEG F TOMORROW DURING THE PERIOD
OF HEAVIEST PCPN. THE OPERATIONAL ETA HAS A KNOWN COLD BIAS WITH .......................

Not exactly what I was wanting to hear. Sounds like I need to buckle up.

Me either. We can just only hope that we have sleet like today instead of freezing rain even though the NWS had forecasted freezing rain for today. I hope this will happen again

[QCWx]

The thing is..

Last year in December 2002, the roads faired very well. Sleet and Snow werent allowed to accumulate on the roads nearly as much around here. Now with every road almost basically impassible, freezing rain can only make it worse. It could literally take until thursday for the roads to get back to normal around here.

[Dan]

SF, what are the soundings for Greensboro and Hickory (if Hickory has one)?

Those soundings would better represent me for tomorrow?

Here you go ... Hickory, NC (warm nose at 850mb and 780mb)

Not trying to sound stupid, but does this graph indicate more sleet for Hickory or mainly Freezing Rain? If someone can answer this for me, I appreciate it...

[Wannabewxman79]

I sure hope we get lucky here in the Triangle (RDU) and all that misses us. Good luck to you folks in the Western part of the state.

[Stormsfury]

Not trying to sound stupid, but does this graph indicate more sleet for Hickory or mainly Freezing Rain? If someone can answer this for me, I appreciate it...

Dan, taken at face value, the cold air dome is sufficient enough for more sleet and less ZR since the below freezing layer is 4000 ft deep...

SF

[yoda]

SF... what does this mean for Northern VA?? Will we see 1/4-1/2 inch of ice here too?

[Anonymous]

SF, If I may ask you this.........

What does all this freezing rain mean for N VA tomorrow or tomorrow night?

Will we get it too? It's not like N VA will somehow be warmer than the Carolinas tomorrow night.

Thanks!!

-JEB

[Wannabewxman79]

Well, Jeb from what I have seen around here, the freezing line is going to be just west of Raleigh, but still far south into NC so I would almost bet that you will either be snow or sleet. All our local mets here say that will happen and so does the NWS.

[Craig286]

JEB...looks like some more snow is forming and heading our way...maybe another hours worth before its all said and done...

[PTrackerLA]

All those dealing with this storm take care, it sounds serious!

[Anonymous]

With just the freezing drizzle forecasted for us tomorrow, I will be going nowhere. There is just NO WAY I am even gonna try to take a jebwalk on that ice!!!!!

We have three inches + of snow, the roads will get plowed, then the freezing drizzle will fall on the cold roadway and with these sfc temps, it will be a sheet of ice.

-JEB

[Dan]

thanks SF for the clarification. I'm not the best in the world at reading those sounding graphs.

John Cessarich, a local TV Met at WYFF in Greenville, is really worried with the 0z model runs. He said that there could be a dangerous ice storm tomorrow from the Upstate northeastward into the foothills and Piedmont of NC with temps staying in the 20's even for GSP. Another station in the market is saying about the same thing, except they mention more about sleet potential with the freezing rain.