Question for StormsFury

Weather4Life23 · #1 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:15 pm

Hey SF, Do you think you can give your thought on round 2 for central NC. Is this going be significant ice storm. Is it going to stay below freezing still. What do you think b.c i have seen the models and GFS and ETA both show good amount of QPF over NC tomorrow

Stormsfury · #2 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:30 pm

THe biggest question right now lies within the warm nose (not so much at 850mb but at 950mb and 925mb level) .. latest CHS soundings show temperatures at that level on 10ºC ....

I really believe, however, the SFC temperatures will stay below freezing for a substantial length of time, and IF the SFC temperatures warm above freezing, it WON'T be until Monday NIGHT at the earliest ..

And the Latest 18z ETA 2m SFC temperatures support the wedge remaining in place ...

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.eta18sfctw.html

Suncat · #3 Postby **Suncat** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:36 pm

Add me to this query. Round Two??? :eek:

Just heard on TV that there have been about 500 reported traffic accidents related to the weather in the Triangle area and about 2000 throughout the state. NC Department of Transportation is asking folks to not go on the roads, if at all possible, so that they can scrape and lay down sand and salt.

The high for today was projected to be 28 F, but I don't think it got any higher than 21 F. Monday is going to be one nasty day on the roads!!!

Suncat

Weather4Life23 · #4 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:41 pm

Suncat wrote:Add me to this query. Round Two???

Just heard on TV that there have been about 500 reported traffic accidents related to the weather in the Triangle area and about 2000 throughout the state. NC Department of Transportation is asking folks to not go on the roads, if at all possible, so that they can scrape and lay down sand and salt.

The high for today was projected to be 28 F, but I don't think it got any higher than 21 F. Monday is going to be one nasty day on the roads!!!

Suncat

Greg Fishel says that a major ice storm is likely for parts north and west of the triangle. He says it will most likly be a rain event here in the Triangle. Hmmmmm

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:44 pm

Sorry, I don't believe so despite the warm nose at the 850mb and 950mb levels ... IMHO, he's following the GFS way too closely and NOT even looked at the SFC temperature depiction from the ETA ... which holds onto the wedge much, much longer ... and especially, since Charleston vicinity is under a winter weather advisory, and the temperatures across ALL of South Carolina except the Southern Portion remains below freezing ... I just don't see the SFC temperatures warming until AFTER the precip is gone.

SF

Weather4Life23 wrote:
Suncat wrote:Add me to this query. Round Two???

Just heard on TV that there have been about 500 reported traffic accidents related to the weather in the Triangle area and about 2000 throughout the state. NC Department of Transportation is asking folks to not go on the roads, if at all possible, so that they can scrape and lay down sand and salt.

The high for today was projected to be 28 F, but I don't think it got any higher than 21 F. Monday is going to be one nasty day on the roads!!!

Suncat

Greg Fishel says that a major ice storm is likely for parts north and west of the triangle. He says it will most likly be a rain event here in the Triangle. Hmmmmm

Weather4Life23 · #6 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:47 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Sorry, I don't believe so despite the warm nose at the 850mb and 950mb levels ... IMHO, he's following the GFS way too closely and NOT even looked at the SFC temperature depiction from the ETA ... which holds onto the wedge much, much longer ... and especially, since Charleston vicinity is under a winter weather advisory, and the temperatures across ALL of South Carolina except the Southern Portion remains below freezing ... I just don't see the SFC temperatures warming until AFTER the precip is gone.

SF

He has a tendacy to be conservative.

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:51 pm

Conservative is NOT a good thing when even the coldest of the models (ETA MOS) busted by 7º in RAH ...

SF

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:06 pm

And latest RUC proggs through 5 am Monday morning keep the wedge FIRMLY IN PLACE ... with FRZ/FROZEN deep into South Carolina ...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... typ&loop=1

SF

Weather4Life23 · #9 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:19 pm

Once again, Greg says its already starting to warm.. i dont see that at all. temps have not changed all day. He also says its an all rain event tomorrow for most of the Wral viewing area

Weather4Life23 · #10 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:32 pm

He also just said it would get to about 33 in the triangle. We are offly close to the freezing mark.

Wannabewxman79 · #11 Postby **Wannabewxman79** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:46 pm

Greg has a knack for not being right, period. All the other channels metro. are saying atleast freezing rain tomorrow night and the NWS says high tomorrow 30 and freezing rain. Heck it was supposed to warm up enough by mid-afternoon to make us change to freezing rain and it never did that.

Weather4Life23 · #12 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:53 pm

NCweatherscope is the model he uses and it says that at 7pm we should be at 25 here in RDU. Its still 19

QCWx · #13 Postby **QCWx** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:00 pm

I have to wonder if the warm nose is overdone because we havent had a drop of ZR today. It's been either snow or sleet all day and it hasnt stopped. Heck, we were supposed to be ZR hours ago. I have to say I am hoping for the cold to hold and recieve more IP tomorrow.

Wannabewxman79 · #14 Postby **Wannabewxman79** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:00 pm

Yeah but to his credit he did say it would be close as to where the frozen precip. is tomorrow afternoon and then he did mention it being to the north and west of Raleigh. It all depends on how much of the CAD is left I suppose.

Yeah that is what I was saying QCWx.

Weather4Life23 · #15 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:04 pm

Wannabewxman79 wrote:Yeah but to his credit he did say it would be close as to where the frozen precip. is tomorrow afternoon and then he did mention it being to the north and west of Raleigh. It all depends on how much of the CAD is left I suppose.

Yeah that is what I was saying QCWx.

Yes i did hear him say that.

Stormsfury · #16 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:05 pm

The warm nose isn't exaggerated, but it isn't surging as far north as was progged today ... and that's obvious with

1) The resiliency of the sleet/snow to stay longer due to the cooling processes from the precip itself ... which has likely caused glaciation of the lower level deck ...
2) The continued underprogged cold air at the SFC, along with the tendency with the falling precip to further lock down the temperatures (and not to mention, the incredibly low dewpoints that keeps continually being fed down into NC from the NNE ...

BTW, the winter weather advisory continues for the Charleston vicinity with temperatures to hold between 31-35 ... and that's reflected in the ZFP tonight ... and the advisory lasts until 9 am tomorrow ...

It also appears that a small SFC low has developed off the coast of the Carolinas as well, further enhancing the CAD brought on NNE winds ...

SF

Stormsfury · #17 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:46 pm

18z MESOETA

FWIW, the MESOETA 18z cycle DOESN'T break the WEDGE ...

Weather4Life23 · #18 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:56 pm

SF, im not trying to suck up or anything but i really appreciate your help in analzying the weather for us. I have not been through any weather classes yet, but will in the fall and meteorology is my major. I know alot of weather but there are things i dont and you have made this event extremly interesting with you analysis

Stormsfury · #19 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 8:00 pm

Weather4Life23 wrote:SF, im not trying to suck up or anything but i really appreciate your help in analzying the weather for us. I have not been through any weather classes yet, but will in the fall and meteorology is my major. I know alot of weather but there are things i dont and you have made this event extremly interesting with you analysis

Anything to help out with as much as I am able to.

SF

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