Brief discussion regarding Major Carolinas Storm...

[Stormsfury]

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My forecast/prognostic discussion)

Covers the RUC/ETA precip types, current windows for NC/SC observations, and the ETA/AVN MOS Guidance and the BUST in South Carolina, even with the ETA MOS...

SF

[Stormsfury]

OMG... IT'S 35 AT CHARLESTON, AND ALL REPORTING STATIONS NORTH OF CHARLESTON REPORTING FRZ RAIN OR MIX PCPN!!!!

Temperatures dropped 4º in ONE HOUR!!

SF

[Stormsfury]

HPC qpf's ... since only a 0.03" has fallen so far, this would be A HUGE HIT if the wedge and temperatures CONTINUE to fall in South Carolina ..



SF

[Stormsfury]

Where's the wedge? See the low cloud line for that.

[Stormsfury]

WWUS82 KCHS 251730
SPSCHS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1229 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

SCZ044-045-050-252010-
BERKELEY-CHARLESTON-DORCHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLESTON...GOOSE CREEK...
MCCLELLANVILLE...MONCKS CORNER...SAINT GEORGE...
SAINT STEPHEN AND SUMMERVILLE
1229 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

...MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE SLICK SPOTS ON OVERPASSES
AND BRIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAS ENDED...BECAUSE THERE IS
STILL STANDING WATER FROM THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES IN SOME
LOCATIONS DOWN NEAR FREEZING...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW PLACES HAVING SLICK PAVEMENT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES IN PARTS OF BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL RAIN AND POSSIBLY SLEET COULD MOVE IN TONIGHT...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...THE RISK OF SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS COULD
AGAIN DEVELOP.

PLEASE TRAVEL WITH EXTRA CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS ANY
FREEZING WATER ON ROAD SURFACES IS TYPICALLY INVISIBLE.

$$

PM


[Wannabewxman79]

Looks like it is running out of steam here in the afternoon hours. When is the second system supposed to develop?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

[Stormsfury]

[Stormchaser16]

As the overunning precip heads quickly away from the LP system, it is losing the WAA needed to break over that arctic high sitting over DCA. IF that high does not bust a move quick, then the precip shield will crumble as it loses the feed from the LP system.

[Wannabewxman79]

Snow has come to an abrupt halt and now it is sleeting like crazy.

[Stormchaser16]

http://weathertap.com/protected/static/ ... l_ani.html

We can see that in the last hour or so, snow has made VERY LITTLE progress getting up further into VA. Also if you look south you can see the last of the gulf feed getting into this system, line of thunderstorms are diminishing across the SE coast now as the precip shield becomes further isloated from the main low. As well, notice the STRONG weakening of the shield further west, over Indiana and Illinois. Also notice the dry slot coming into WV.

[Stormchaser16]

Got a little cut off at the end of my post there, anyway my point is that the precip shield is headed away from its best dynamics, and we are beginning to see the effects of that taking place. I DO expect that what is left of the WAA will make it over that arctic air and DCA will get into the mix by sundown or around there. But if that high does not move then many places around DCA may have a hard time reaching the high end of their forecast totals. It does seem as though the western edge of the shield is beginning to weaken as the models continued to show, meaning that this sytem probably wont have a surprise factor for those north of PHL (i.e hope for more snow then forecast is cancel, as the system is playing out just as it ws forecast to).

[Anonymous]

Yep, virga is overhead, but I note something that does cool my enthusiasm some........well, maybe more than some.....................

Our dewpoints have not come up much. This morning, we bottomed out at 11 degrees with a dewpoint of -6. Now, its 18 degrees, with a dewpoint of 0 degrees. If moistening was progressing, you'd think we'd see more like 8 degrees for a dewpoint.

I think I'll throttle down my excitement a couple notches. Dry air is really evaporating the snow, and I am beginning to suspect that we might see 5 inches here. Could be that 7 inches is the lollipop, if this particular lollipop is to be had at all......... LOL


Let's see what transpires.....


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!