Nowcast/Forecast analaysis-synoptic discussion

[Stormchaser16]

http://intellicast.com/Local/USNational ... odnav=none

Radar is filling in VERY nicely. As is seen with most overuning events, precip shield is expanding further N and E(a few hours ahead of model schedule). Typical of waa overunning. STRONG direct gulf feed right into the core of the system which will provide for very heavy snows in NC and VA, parts of northern SC as well should get heavy snowfall. This shield should continue to head ENE over the next few hours, then something interesting and unpleasntly diqusting for PHL north. The system will hit a wall and will break apart, why i am not sure. Only thing i can think of, is the main MW low is pulling into the GL and that is going to help cutoff the feed for the system, and it will outrun its best dynamics as it crashes into this wall of arctic air. This is why PHL proper will see 3-6" or 4-8" when they SHOULD see 6-12". CNJ 2-4" at best, NNJ 1-2" at best. Some areas in VA could see 10"+. Possibly in the northern areas of VA(not sure). Then Tuesday night into Wednesday we will see a coastal low try to develop. As the MW low tries to cut up into the lakes, the 50/50 low and strong high presssure should allow for a transfer to the coast along the new baroclinic zone. A low will organize off the NJ coast and throw snows back into NNJ/NYC and into New England. Meaning that with the whole event, PHL-NYC(NJ)(PA) get screwed. BUT it is possible that Southern New England, NYC, NNJ are looking at a 6-12" + snowstorm setting up.

[Colin]

WOOHOO!!!!!! I can't wait!

[Anonymous]

why will philadelphia not get 6-12, the precip is there like you said and there is enough gulf moisture? shouldn't philadelphia on south see that total?

[Anonymous]

what are we in central new jersey going to get, 6-12+
it seems that we keep getting f--ken screwed when it comes to big storm totals!

[Stormsfury]

why will philadelphia not get 6-12, the precip is there like you said and there is enough gulf moisture? shouldn't philadelphia on south see that total?

Because of the secondary cyclogenesis, a dry slot usually occurs in between the transferrance of the primary low and the secondary low where the best baroclinicity is ... someone always gets the shaft in situations like this ..

SF

[Stormchaser16]

True SF, but PHL SHOULD see 6-12" with this first batch of precip, but they will NOT because of the arctic air shield that is in place. I know it doesnt make sense, but the precip shield is going to slam into a wall and fall apart.

[Anonymous]

what about tonights and mondays storm will we see 4+ of just another lousy good for nothing f---en dusting

[Chris the Weather Man]

Looks to me, 12-16 inches is possible..total of both storms.... Or Am I wrong?

[Colin]

Another potentially good storm bites the dust...and people calm down. Who cares? This isn't going to be the only storm the rest of this winter.

[Anonymous]

whatever, I don't even care anymore, I'm moving to Los Angeles. At least there it's warm all year long and I don't have to wory about rain taking my snow allong the coast. Just someone tell me that we will get atleast 4 inches from tonights storm. And if we don't get tons of snow from tuesday than I hope we get 1/2-1 inch of ice.

[Colin]

Looks to me, 12-16 inches is possible..total of both storms.... Or Am I wrong?

You're wrong...I'd say 4-8" total for you.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Looks to me, 12-16 inches is possible..total of both storms.... Or Am I wrong?

You're wrong...I'd say 4-8" total for you.

For Both? ok..........

[FLguy]

http://intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadarLoop&prodnav=none

Radar is filling in VERY nicely. As is seen with most overuning events, precip shield is expanding further N and E(a few hours ahead of model schedule). Typical of waa overunning. STRONG direct gulf feed right into the core of the system which will provide for very heavy snows in NC and VA, parts of northern SC as well should get heavy snowfall. This shield should continue to head ENE over the next few hours, then something interesting and unpleasntly diqusting for PHL north. The system will hit a wall and will break apart, why i am not sure. Only thing i can think of, is the main MW low is pulling into the GL and that is going to help cutoff the feed for the system, and it will outrun its best dynamics as it crashes into this wall of arctic air. This is why PHL proper will see 3-6" or 4-8" when they SHOULD see 6-12". CNJ 2-4" at best, NNJ 1-2" at best. Some areas in VA could see 10"+. Possibly in the northern areas of VA(not sure). Then Tuesday night into Wednesday we will see a coastal low try to develop. As the MW low tries to cut up into the lakes, the 50/50 low and strong high presssure should allow for a transfer to the coast along the new baroclinic zone. A low will organize off the NJ coast and throw snows back into NNJ/NYC and into New England. Meaning that with the whole event, PHL-NYC(NJ)(PA) get screwed. BUT it is possible that Southern New England, NYC, NNJ are looking at a 6-12" + snowstorm setting up.

aside from the fact that your wrong about the second event. ill bite. it was a nice discussion.

[thstorm87]

hey flguy, do you really think you 6plus still has a chance here in philly tonight?

[Stormchaser16]

Care to explain how I am wrong regarding the second event? This is not to say PHl-NYC will NOT see accumulating snows, HOWEVER NNJ-SNE into BOX are going to be hit the hardest. Places in the rest of NJ(PHL-NYC) I think are going to be in the 3-6" range because the low will organize too late. The baroclinic zone is going to be further north, this will NOT be a Hatteras low, meaning that SNJ thru CNJ MAY be dryslotted as the low organizes. SINCE the MW low is already going to be pretty far north, it will transfer the energy at the very last minute to the NJ coast as it tries to slide up into Canada but meets head on with the strong HP and the 50/50 area of influence. This means its too little too late for most of New Jersey. IF and this is a big if, the MW low moves further SE then the baroclinic zone would be further south, however at this time i do not see this occuring. In fact, the ETA is showing the low not getting going until it reaches the SNE coast IF at all. GGEM is quite bullish on the coastal low and would pound SNE into BOX, but again the baroclinic zone too far north for PHL-NYC meaning 3-6" at best, if not even a drylot. Some areas in New England(BOX especially) and parts of E LI have the POTENTIAL to exceed 12".

NOWCAST update event 1: Precip is now building into VA, however you can already see weakening of the shield especially on the northern side as it meets that dry arctic air. What is happening is the overunning shield is moving quickly away from a low heading N towards the GL region. As it does that the shield becomes less fed from hte initial low, that combined with it meeting that high over DCA is combining for it running into a strong arctic wall. Current indications show that this high does NOT wat to move and that is preventing the precip from breaking out into NVA and DCA. Another thing that is occuring, or isnt occuring, is that since the low is pretty far back, the WAA is not as strong as if it were closer to the LP system. This can be noted as you look towards the Gulf coast, you see a strong line of thunderstorms, good gulf moisture, however as you glance north, it seems as though that feed stops. Which it does. That HP is not allowing the WAA to advance in full force at this time. And IF that HP does not move soon, the shield will wear down before getting too far north.