El nino will be absent during the peak of hurricane season

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

This is the latest input from all the models for ENSO and clearly they show neutral to very weak el nino conditions until june and from july thru september only 2 models go warm.But this is a changing thing every month as last month more models were warm thru june and one month later less of them are going with warm ENSO.Now let's wait and see in the next few months how the equatorial pacific waters are as the anomalys go up and down especially at el nino 3 area.

The actual data of the anomalys are at link below.
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ ... y_ps32.gif

[hurricanetrack]

Good info, Luis.

The lack of El Nino would at least signal the possibility of having another season like 2003. Then, the big question becomes: where is the mean trough position? Obviously, there are some who try to forecast that or at least speculate on its position.

The famous Joe Bastardi seems to use water temp profiles off the East Coast to try and figure out whether or not the ridge will be strong. A strong ridge anchored off the East Coast spells disaster from time to time.

The bottom line here is that it looks like the models are trending towards what amounts to no major warming in the Pacific.

Aga, I will see Dr. Gray and his colleagues in person at the 2004 National Hurricane Conference. He speaks on the last day. I will record it with a video camera and will post clips on my site. The main thing I will be looking for is whether or not he (Dr. Gary) thinks that the protective trough will be prevalent this hurricane season. If anyone ever nails that forecast, they'll be my nominee for a Nobel Prize.

[hurricanetrack]

This should read:

Again, I will see Dr. Gray and his colleagues in person at the 2004 National Hurricane Conference. He speaks on the last day. I will record it with a video camera and will post clips on my site. The main thing I will be looking for is whether or not he (Dr. Gary) thinks that the protective trough will be prevalent this hurricane season. If anyone ever nails that forecast, they'll be my nominee for a Nobel Prize.

Not sure where "Aga" came from.

[cycloneye]

Dont worrie about any gramatical errors because nobody is perfect Mark.

In terms of the 2004 hurricane season it will be very interesting that conference and listen to all the big pros what they have to say about the upcomming season.

[Anonymous]

Based on models.....current analysis and trends should carry more weight.

[cycloneye]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

The atlantic looks relativly warm for this time of the year as the anomalys show not good news for the caribbean in the summer as those CV systems roll off africa and find warm waters in their tracks.

[Rainband]

This should read:

Again, I will see Dr. Gray and his colleagues in person at the 2004 National Hurricane Conference. He speaks on the last day. I will record it with a video camera and will post clips on my site. The main thing I will be looking for is whether or not he (Dr. Gary) thinks that the protective trough will be prevalent this hurricane season. If anyone ever nails that forecast, they'll be my nominee for a Nobel Prize.

Not sure where "Aga" came from.

I love your site. Next time a Cane threatens here. If it ever does Can I chase with you