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sertorius
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#21 Postby sertorius » Fri Jan 23, 2004 3:17 pm

Alright, i couldn't let my thread to myslef just die could I??? Kidding-just a quick note-very warm today and prob. tomorrow-the NWS has us in the 50's as late as Sunday then slowly cooling down through Tuesday-real cold air to arrive late next week-I'm getting nervous-snow has been taken out and replaced with rain (by GFS and ETA and NWS) and real cold air delayed another couple of days-it is on the models, but I get nervous when it gets delayed!! Basically snow fall has been downgraded to flurries-may get some with the Artic Front on Thursday via the GFS but who knows. Oh well, the ducks are still on the pond, but they seem to be getting mossy-Winter is caught in traffic for the dinner date I discussed earlier in the week!! Have a great day!!
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#22 Postby JCT777 » Fri Jan 23, 2004 4:19 pm

Sertorius - it looks to me like some REAL cold air will arrive in your area for mid/late next week. Hope you see some snow too!
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#23 Postby sertorius » Sat Jan 24, 2004 7:31 am

Hello everyone-I just thought I'd keep everyone updated on the happenings in the central plains-hope you don't mind!! Crazy weather shaping up here-there is an ice storm warning 20 miles to my east, but nothing for here-crazy stuff!! Looks like Kansas City is about to get walloped by another serious ice storm-I'm from KC and was living in the Brookside area during the humdinger of 2002-lost power for 6 days and had to dodge falling trees on the roads!! Here in Lawrence, if the front would move just a bit south before the sw arrived, we could have quite a mess!! The Eta does have us right on the border line through out the whole event-we shall see!! But for now, looks like a brief period of freezing rain tonight then temps in the upper 30's tomorrow-crazy that 30 miles east of me in KC they have highs progged to be 28 tomorrow-the central plains weather is so different from area to area!! The bitter cold looks to arrive by Thursday, though the mets here seem to be down playing it abit from yesterday where one from KC called it nose frezzing cold heading this way!! A lawrence met has us at 40 on Wed. with the head line warming up!!! Doesn't look like much snow for our area and it seems the really cold air is backing off a bit-per the gfs. Currently it is 36 and clear-if it stays clear after the sun comes up, we could jump up quickly!! Hope the front buuls through here by about 2:00 P.M. JCT777 thanks for the responses!! I'll keep everyone kind of update on what's happening here-because in the end, it is all heading east!! Have a great morning!!
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#24 Postby sertorius » Sat Jan 24, 2004 10:12 am

Quick update: temps. have dropped about 5 degrees since 4:00 A.M. to 31 degrees-however, suns out and we have a stiff North East Breeze-not real conducive to us staying cold-temps. will prob. rise to about 36-37 today-forcast is 39-40 degrees. Part of me wonders if NWS out of Topeka is being too conservative-they haven't updated since 2:30 A.M.-The NWS out of KC updated at 6:00 (the haz. weather part) and are real confident of severe iceing in Kansas City and in Eastern Kansas-they have warnings posted 20 miles to my North and 20 miles to my East-but, many times KC will get big snow or ice and Lawrence is left high and dry!! All depends on the front and how much we warm up today!! I would think if we stayed at about 33-34 that with Evap. cooling, we would drop below freezing pretty quick. Need the cloud deck to get here quickly and the winds to shift to the North!! I'll bore you some more later!! Thanks for letting me flap my gums!! have a great morning.
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#25 Postby wx247 » Sat Jan 24, 2004 10:16 am

Thanks for the info. sertorius! :) My step-grandparents live in Lawrence so I will checking back in to see what happens. I lived in Sedalia, MO during that ice storm in 2002. Wasn't that something? :o
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#26 Postby sertorius » Sat Jan 24, 2004 10:23 am

wx247:

Besides the tornado here last Spring, that was the wildest weather I've ever been through!! Driving between my firends and our house checking on power and damage, I was dodging trees as they fell on the roads!! My son was 2 at the time and still will talk about it!! It was fun though-our whole back yard was one big freezer!! We were lucky it never got brutally cold after that!! I'll keep posting with what's going on-Lawrence seems to be ok-but KC especially North of downtown could really get rocked tonight!! have a great day!!
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#27 Postby wx247 » Sat Jan 24, 2004 10:29 am

Yeah, I will agree with the tornado assessment.

We were one of the only places in town back in 2002 not to lose power!!! I was so thankful because I would have frozen into one really big popsicle. :o
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#28 Postby sertorius » Sat Jan 24, 2004 11:08 am

I promise, last update for a while!! temps have jumped to 34 degrees with lots o sun-we prop. will hit 40 today-looks like Lawrence will "luck" out again and miss the severe winter weather!! KC esp. North of the river, still looks to have quite a mess on their hands!! Have a great morning!!
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#29 Postby sertorius » Sat Jan 24, 2004 2:06 pm

Early Afternoon Update: Sorry to continue to bore you, but NWS out of Topeka finally decided to issue an Ice Storm warning for Lawrence-expecting anywhere from quater to half an inch of ice accums tonight and tomorrow-I was wondering as it seemed many of the short range models were showing colder than originally thought-still, as of now, the cold front has yet to reach here-we're sunny and close to 40-clouds are very thin here-thick to our North, South, West and even North East, but very thin here-200 miles North West of me it is 25 and cloudy-my parents who live by KCI Airport in KC are cloudy and 31-very localized weather happening here as the cold air is trying to make its way south-will it happen?? One other note: it seems the models are delaying and modifying the cold air push later this week-this may be the best chance we have at winter weather for a while!! GFS (at least the run I saw) has us at 50 for Thursday and even the Euro seems much less strong with the cold this far west and south-again, it seems to be heading east!! Time will tell-if we ever cloud up and begin to cool off, I'll post again. As of now, my 9 month old has decided my computer looks fun to play with-I think I'll take him for a walk!!! have a great day!!
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#30 Postby sertorius » Sat Jan 24, 2004 11:39 pm

I was posting in David's thread, but I'll post in this one so people know what we are talking about!! As was said, the radar here is beginnning to pop-we are at 31 degrees with a dew point of 25 and a strong east wind-it will take a while for it to hit the ground as we are fairly dry here. NWS has extended the Ice Storm Warning until 4:00 P.M. tomorrow-it could get real messy here in the next 4-6 hours!! NWS still not saying much about Monday's snow, but the models are sure acting like it may be bigger!! The Artic express has been derailed and it seems it will not hit the central Plains untill Next Monday (week from this Monday) if at all. I know ice storms are dangerous, but I'm pretty fired up about this so I'll prob. bore with you more observations later.
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#31 Postby sertorius » Sun Jan 25, 2004 1:10 am

Midnight update: why am I awake?? Drizzle has started-temp. 33 degrees (only one above freezing w/in 250 miles!!) brisk east wind. If it does return to below freezing, we will have a mess here!!!
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#32 Postby David » Sun Jan 25, 2004 1:14 am

your awake cause of the weather :)

nothing here so far
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#33 Postby sertorius » Sun Jan 25, 2004 1:20 am

you're right of course-or I'm just nervous about which KU team will show up tomorrow LOL!!! I still can't believ it is 33 at the North Lawrence airport and below freezing every where else-that is wild-we are now having steady drizzle-the ground is cold and the temps. should start dropping-this really could become a mess!!!!!
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#34 Postby sertorius » Sun Jan 25, 2004 1:23 am

David:

The radar is filling in nicely-you should start getting something real soon if not already-it is light and I don't think all of it is reaching the ground, but it is comming-Southern Kansas is full of moisture and it is all heading North-Man, if the whole atmosphere could be cold, we'd have some serious snow!!!!
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#35 Postby sertorius » Sun Jan 25, 2004 1:30 am

Looking at the national radar, it really seems that the bulk of the precip is going to miss us here and be focused more east-say Sedalia, Mo. eastward-there is some fill in on our local radar, but on the national radar, it really seems that the intense precip will miss us here-but what do i know!!!!! It is still 33-I'm the warm spot of the area!!
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#36 Postby David » Sun Jan 25, 2004 1:30 am

Serious ice.... maybe snow on the back side... ice will be main threat... hopefully closing schools here if we get enough.
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#37 Postby sertorius » Sun Jan 25, 2004 1:44 am

I hope they close your school-I teach in Kansas City so I wouldn't mind a serious winter storm-mind-I've been stoked for one since October!!!! The real heavy precip should be here around 3:00 A.M. according to KC NWS and last about 5-7 hours-this really could get as bad as 2002!!
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#38 Postby David » Sun Jan 25, 2004 1:52 am

if it does..... i will definitly get a day off school.. i got 2 off in 2002 8-)
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#39 Postby sertorius » Sun Jan 25, 2004 2:16 am

Last update of the night-temp. 31; freezing drizzle-ice forming on the side walks and roads-heavier precip. here in about 2 hours-situation is really going down hill fast!!! Good night!!
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#40 Postby David » Sun Jan 25, 2004 2:18 am

nothing here to my knowledge.. atleast on the radar.. i should go check.
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