Texas AFDs Indicating Arctic Blast in the offing

[KatDaddy]

Perhaps we shall see some frozen precip on the Gulf Coast in the upcoming weeks

Keep fingers crossed for Houston Galveston winter precip event

Hou-Gal AFD:

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HINTING AT A GENERAL TROFFY PATTERN AND A VERY
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY (SUCH AS IT IS FOR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE) FOR A
SHOT OF SOME ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED

Dallas AFD:

MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE LAST PART OF THIS
FORECAST AS UPPER HEMISPHERIC PATTERN MERGES INTO ONE SUPPORTING
STRONG ARCTIC SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL TIMING FOR
THURSDAY IS QUESTIONABLE AND WE CONCLUDE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS BETTER. FRIGIDDED CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THURSDAY.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MAY COME FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY.

[Portastorm]

Hey, I know we have a lot of Houston-Galveston folks on S2K ... so you'll get some grins out of the knowledge that for (at least) 4 consecutive runs, the GFS is progging a snowstorm for Houston on Super Bowl Sunday.

Now wouldn't that be something?!

[Guest]

That would be awesome and a total nightmare. But like they said nowhere else but Texas!!!

Bring it on...the snowstorm!!!!

[JCT777]

If there is a snowstorm in Houston on Superbowl Sunday, they should televise the snow instead of the game.

[gboudx]

If there's a snowstorm along the Gulf Coast on SuperBowl Sunday, then they might as well not even show the game down here. Everyone will be outside playing in it, or watching it fall, or talking to "dey momma an dem" about the snow.

[CaptinCrunch]

Don't worry it's not going to happen.......

[gboudx]

C'mon Chris. Let us dream for a little while. I can just see it now. <dreaming>Watching the snow fall, while eating some chicken and andoiulle gumbo. And oh yeah, the Super Bowl is on. And I just won the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters when my numbers came up.</dreaming>

[CaptinCrunch]

In the words of Aerosmith "Dream On"

[CaptinCrunch]

Here is weather.com's forecast for the upcoming 7 days in the Houston, TX. area


Today: Cloudy. Some light rain will fall throughout the day. High near 50F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 90%.

Tonight: Light rain early...then remaining cloudy with showers overnight. Low 41F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 60%.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will give way to occasional showers in the afternoon. High 49F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

Tomorrow night: Cloudy with occasional rain showers. Low around 35F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

Sunday: Rain and snow showers. Highs in the mid 40s and lows in the low 30s.

Monday: Rain mixed with snow. Highs in the low 40s and lows in the low 30s.

Tuesday: Snow showers. Highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 30s.

Wednesday: Mix of rain and snow. Highs in the upper 30s and lows in the upper 20s.

Thursday: Rain and snow. Highs in the low 40s and lows in the upper 30s.

Friday: Light rain likely. Highs in the upper 40s and lows in the upper 30s.

Saturday: Showers possible. Highs in the low 50s and lows in the upper 30s.

Sunday: Chance of showers. Highs in the upper 40s and lows in the upper 30s.

Here is NWS forecast for same time period

Tonight. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday. A 80 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph.

Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms likely then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 50s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Sunday. Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday night. Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s.

Monday. Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s.

Monday night. Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.

Tuesday. Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s.

Tuesday night. Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.

Wednesday. Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s.

Wednesday night. Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.

Thursday. Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 60s.

Wounder who's right????

[gboudx]

Make you wonder. Here's forecast for Lake Charles, La from weather.com. Considering how relatively close Houston and Lake Charles are, somethings not right.

Today
Jan 23 Partly Cloudy 64°/52° 0 %
Sat
Jan 24 T-Storms / Wind 64°/57° 80 %
Sun
Jan 25 Mostly Sunny 71°/52° 20 %
Mon
Jan 26 Partly Cloudy 70°/45° 20 %
Tue
Jan 27 Sunny 65°/42° 10 %
Wed
Jan 28 Sunny 66°/46° 20 %
Thu
Jan 29 Few Showers 67°/36° 30 %
Fri
Jan 30 Sunny 58°/39° 20 %
Sat
Jan 31 Partly Cloudy 65°/46° 20 %
Sun
Feb 01 Partly Cloudy 64°/37° 30 %

[PTrackerLA]

This is from the NWS Lake Charles discussion:

FOR NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE...BRINGING
A BRIEF COOLDOWN AS THE WEAK SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LATEST MRF
ADVERTISES A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THU...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. STAY TUNED.

Looks like the NWS will be changing their forecasts and jumping on the arctic express! I expect to see quite a change in the forecast this afternoon.

[PTrackerLA]

Christopher the weather.com forecast is surprising to say the least, that's 3 days of snow in the forecast for Houston! And to think, when average joe wants to know the weather he most likely will go to weather.com and look up the forecast. If weather.com is dead wrong on this forecast, they need to rethink what products they use to make their forecasts.

[Sean in New Orleans]

This artic air has been up there for awhile. We've all been watching it and the question has always been--not "if," but "when" it was coming down. It appears we are beginning to get the answers and the probability of snow in the Deep South is certainly there. We have time to watch--but, alot of this we are seeing with the models wouldn't be a total shock or surprise...

[CaptinCrunch]

Weather.com has D/FW in the mid 60's for a high on Wednesday, it can't be 35 and snowing in Houston the same time it's 67 in Ft. Worth, NWS has a better chance at being right than WX.com on it's forecast. I have even heard that the artic front due in here Monday wil not be as cold as first thought and will only bring high's in the lower 50's rather than the lower 40's as first forecasted. How ever I do think that by the Feb 1 or shortly after we will see a SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC FRONT and a good chance of winter weather of some sort.

[KatDaddy]

Significant Winter Storms for N, Central, and E US



THE MODELS SUPPORT AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK
AS NRN STREAM FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER
48...CUTTING UNDERNEATH HIGHER LATITUDE BLOCKED FLOW. THE
BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD
FOCUS ACROSS THE NWRN US AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN US.
EXPECT THE MODELS AND FORECASTERS WILL HAVE DAY TO DAY
CONTINUITY PROBLEMS WITH RESPECT TO PREFERENCE OF THE TIMING
AND DIGGING OF EMBEDDED SYSTEMS ALOFT AND ALSO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS DETERMINING THE POSITION/TRACK OF
ARCTIC FRONTS AND THE ORGANIZATION OF IMPORTANT WINTER
WEATHER FOCUSING/ENHANCING FRONTAL LOWS IN THIS PATTERN.

[Guest]

It doesn't say southern states - so that leaves out Texas right for the storms?

[Sean in New Orleans]

It doesn't say southern states - so that leaves out Texas right for the storms?

http://www.wwltv.com/cgi-bin/discuss/sh ... #Post20409

[CaptinCrunch]

Someone is smoking crack at that station......

[bfez1]

I am jumping up and down---I can't stand it!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

weather.com has changed their forecast for Houston and the coming week to 60's and 70's and NO snow......SORRY