GFS Model Forecast

[Cumulonimbus]

Wow. Talk about a BIGTIME change of a forecast in 12 hours for the Pacific Northwest. GFS for 12Z yesterday showed arctic air covering most of Washington and Oregon and very cold temperatures and snow for BOTH sides of the Cascades. By 18Z yesterday it was only for northeastern WA only and now it is mostly east of the Rockies. I have never seen a forecast model show such a large change in such a short time. In my opinion...bring back the old MRF from 5 years ago. It did a MUCH better job with being consistant. In my opinion the GFS is a bunch of crap for forecasts!! Thank goodness we have other countries with models that can forecast weather trends with far more reliability. I am also amazed that positive PNA or negative PNA...the midwest and the northeast stay in COLD weather. I need to move back to the midwest where I grew up. Seattle's weather is too boring and has very few if any extremes. I am not going to rely on the GFS anymore even for 72 hours or less. It seems to be worthless in my opinion.

[Anonymous]

GFS=

Good
For
Sh!t

[Cumulonimbus]

Yup that about sums it up. This time tho even the forecasters got caught. Kind of feel sorry for them...they do need to put out some kind of early forecast as snow in Seattle tends to cause big problems. No sooner did they do that than poof it was gone. The GFS has been changing with each and every 6 hour run for this area for 2-3 weeks now but this was a HUGE change in just a few hours. That should be the end of possible snow for Seattle for this winter. Our normal winter months for snow here are Nov-Dec and Jan...by Feb 1 it's over and spring is coming on rapidly.



Alex

[Anonymous]

Yup that about sums it up. This time tho even the forecasters got caught. Kind of feel sorry for them...they do need to put out some kind of early forecast as snow in Seattle tends to cause big problems. No sooner did they do that than poof it was gone. The GFS has been changing with each and every 6 hour run for this area for 2-3 weeks now but this was a HUGE change in just a few hours. That should be the end of possible snow for Seattle for this winter. Our normal winter months for snow here are Nov-Dec and Jan...by Feb 1 it's over and spring is coming on rapidly.



Alex

Watch out because it is gonna get SUPER cold in the conus, with the PV dropping into WI in Feb. I think some cold may seep through the Columbia River Gorge and cause snow and ice probs in Portland and Seattle come Feb. Don't count it out yet cumulonimbus.



-JEB