colder wx tonight, clipper friday night, and winter storm

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good evening everyone. Some new developments to talk about here tonight, starting with the colder weather. A cold front has recently passed through the I 95 corridor from DC to Boston. North and west of those cities, temperature fall quickly and dangerous wind chills are the result. However south and east of I 95, temps are warmer ahead of the cold front. For example, Norfolk, Virginia is 52 degrees as of 7 PM after highs in the middle 50s earlier today. Meanwhile Reagan National in Washington DC is still at 40 degrees at 7 pm after a high of 49 earlier. BWI near Baltimore was 43 earlier today, which is 2 degrees above the normal high of 41. BWI is now 37 degrees. However the colder air is just off to the north and west. Oakland, Maryland for instance is just 12 above zero with a wind chill of -2. Hagerstown is 26 degrees with a wind chill of 12 above. However the really cold stuff is in the great lakes region where temperatures range from 5 degrees in Detroit, 2 degrees in Flint, 1 degree in Lansing, and ZERO in Mount Pleasant, Michigan with wind chills between 15 and 20 below zero. Wind chill values in the great lakes wil range from 20-40 below zero overnight with possibly lower wind chills in spots from the UP of Michigan, northern Wisconsin and the arrowhead of Minnesota too. In addition to the cold, lake effect snows continue in the lake effect favored zones from the up of Michigan into northern and western lower Michigan, northeast Ohio, and into western New York too.

The next thing to keep an eye on over the next 24 hours is a clipper system over South Dakota tonight. The latest models develop this clipper and take this clipper south and east. Thus the potential of snow showers exists from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic states Friday afternoon into Friday night. The latest model depictions point this out below.

ETA 30-48 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif

GFS 30-48 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif

Accumulating snow of 1-3 inches is likely across the upper midwest tomorrow from Minnepolis to near Chicago, Grand Rapids, and Toledo, Ohio. Some places within this swath could see locally higher amounts. As this system tracks south and east into the mid atlantic region, it will be starved for moisture. At most 1 inch of snow could fall from Washington DC up to Philadelphia late Friday night into early Saturday. However most places will more likely see just a dusting out of this across the mid atlantic states. The bigger accumulating snows will lie from the Ohio valley into the southern Great lakes and the upper midwest. While this will be for the most part a good handling storm, slippery spots are likely for folks travelling.

After the Friday-Friday night clipper is out of our way, the next focus is on this southern stream storm system, which is still progged to be a winter storm for the middle atlantic states later Sunday into Monday. The following projections show the evolution of this Sunday pm-Monday am winter storm below.

GFS 72-84 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif

ETA 72-84 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif

By Sunday afternoon and evening, snow will overspread the DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia areas from the south to the north. Meanwhile with cold air damming down east of the mountains and into North Carolina, the concern is not snow, but sleet and freezing rain from west central Virginia into northwestern North Carolina. This will likely be a significant batch of overrunning precipitation with warm air advecting in as time goes on.

Breaking it down city by city, for Roanoke, Virginia, precip should start as freezing rain and or sleet Sunday. Ice accumulation is a possibility before changing over to rain late Sunday night into early Monday.

For Fredricksburg, Virginia, snow is expected at the start Sunday afternoon with amounts in the 1-3 inch range. Snow should change over to sleet and freezing rain Sunday night and possibly change to rain Monday morning before ending.

For Washington DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, precipitation will be mainly in the form of snow. Washington DC could see 3-6 inches of snow Sunday afternoon and Sunday night followed by a mixture of sleet or freezing rain before ending Monday morning. For Baltimore and Philadelphia, precipitation should be in the form of all snow except from Baltimore south and west where snow could mix or change over to sleet or a period of freezing rain. 4-8 inches of snow is expected in these areas. However isolated places from the mason dixon line through south central New Jersey including Philadelphia could see over 8 inches of snow.

For Harrisburg and Allentown, PA, all snow is expected and could accumulate over 6 inches in some places. Areas north and west of Harrisburg and Allentown will see less snow while south and east of there could see more potentially. It's from Harrisburg and Allentown south and east to Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Atlantic City where the maximum snow amounts could be achieved from this storm.

Thes amounts are subject to change both from Friday and Friday nights clipper and for the weekend winter storm. In the meantime have a great evening.

Jim

[Chris the Weather Man]

Good Forecast, Jim! And, Yes, Colder, We could see lows near 0F agian for my area! One Heck of a January for the Northeast!

[Anonymous]

Excellent analysis as usual JIM.


We are starting to fall more precipitously here in Woodbridge. We are down to 35 and falling. We have dropped 3 degrees just in the past 20 minutes here, Dewpoints are down to 11 and falling. Winds are NNW at 14 gusting to 34mph. The weather is becoming more refreshing by the hour!

EDIT!!!! WE JUST FELL TO 34 degrees!! It's starting to free-fall now!!!

I can hardly believe we might get a couple flurries from a clipper?!!!!!

WOW, What happened to the North Trend we all know and love so much? LOL!

Looking forward to some snow on Sun night; I would not mind a glaze on a few inches of snow


-JEB

[Chris the Weather Man]

Jeb, You should visit up here. Sat morning low near 0F

[Anonymous]

Jeb, You should visit up here. Sat morning low near 0F

Yep I would really enjoy a ZERO-DEGREE jebwalk in all that snow you have there!!! I'd be crying for joy looking at all the snow piles there during the cool, refreshing jebwalk!!!

PLUS, I'd love to be there for the weekend storm!!! You folks will get CLOBBERED with a FOOT of snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This IS, without a doubt, Pennsylvania and New Jersey's Winter!!!!!

You will be in the SHWEET SPOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Better go out and buy a snow blower cos you're gonna get all worn out from shoveling all that snow from this big weekend storm that is going to bury you with 10 to 15 inches!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WOOOOOOOOOO--HOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING ON THAT ICE-AGE GREENLAND BLOCK COLD!!

[Chris the Weather Man]

We have a snowblower, Last time
it would not work! My pa and I had to dig it out. Dang, I wish i called you! I would been happy, if i called you to dig out my driveway.