AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EST THU JAN 22 2004
.DISCUSSION...
MAJOR CHANGE TO SUNDAY WITH FORECAST OF DAMMING AND TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON 15 DEGREES BELOW CURRENT FORECAST.
NOW THAT ETA MODEL EXTENDS TO SUNDAY STRONG DAMMING SIGNATURE
SHOWING UP. THIS AGREES WELL WITH CANADIAN MODEL WHICH PERSISTS
DAMMING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AVN IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE PARENT HIGH
WITH ONLY A 1020MB RIDGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME PERIOD AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE... HAVE DROPPED SUNDAY HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY.
WITH THIS EVENT STILL BEING FOUR DAYS OUT... THERE IS MUCH THAT
COULD GO WRONG WITH THIS FORECAST... HOWEVER ONE MUST SAY SOMETHING.
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IN NOT
HIGH THAT THIS WON'T NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL 3/4 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
HAVE DROPPED HIGHS FRIDAY A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES TO MATCH MODELS
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK.
DO NOT TRUST AVN/GFS MODEL BEYOND SATURDAY SO FORECAST RELATIVELY
DIFFICULT FOR COMING WORK WEEK. WILL STAY UNDER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
PRIOR TO RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
NC change for Sunday 1-25???
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
NC change for Sunday 1-25???
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
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Wow, I'm impressed ... the RAH discussion (AFD) goes against the GFS and clearly states that it's not to be trusted in that time frame ... and an excellent decision IMHO, in regards to how this model handled cold air damming and wedging (poorly and MUCH too quick to scour out the dammed cold air)...
SF
SF
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Weather4Life23
- Tropical Depression
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- Joined: Mon Jan 19, 2004 2:40 pm
- Location: Cary, NC
In there lastes discusiion, the forecaster states that the timeframe for frozen precip is limited.
Trying to sort between gaps in model data... but appears that
potential p-type event for Sunday will be limited given strong wwa
advection pattern and lack of cold air source region. Both the ETA model
and GFS keep parent high over Canada...developing a weak secondary
high (~1026 mb) over the northeast. True air source region will be
from a modified Upper Middle-Atlantic region...never allowing US to tap
into true cold Canadian airmass. SW flow aloft does not develop
over the area until after 06z when 850 ridge shifts offshore. Bulk
of precipitation should hold off till after 12z as 850 jet (60kt)
approaches the region. Forecast soundings show a lack of dry air in
place prior to system and that seems reasonable given cold air
linkage problems with secondary high. Thus will have a narrow
timeframe for p-type concerns at onset of precipitation with limited
diabetic influence. Strong horizontal warm air advection takes over
on Sunday as coastal trough pushes inland. Will introduce freezing
rain Saturday night and early Sunday with wording of chance of rain
possibly beginning as freezing rain.
SF, what are your thoughts
Trying to sort between gaps in model data... but appears that
potential p-type event for Sunday will be limited given strong wwa
advection pattern and lack of cold air source region. Both the ETA model
and GFS keep parent high over Canada...developing a weak secondary
high (~1026 mb) over the northeast. True air source region will be
from a modified Upper Middle-Atlantic region...never allowing US to tap
into true cold Canadian airmass. SW flow aloft does not develop
over the area until after 06z when 850 ridge shifts offshore. Bulk
of precipitation should hold off till after 12z as 850 jet (60kt)
approaches the region. Forecast soundings show a lack of dry air in
place prior to system and that seems reasonable given cold air
linkage problems with secondary high. Thus will have a narrow
timeframe for p-type concerns at onset of precipitation with limited
diabetic influence. Strong horizontal warm air advection takes over
on Sunday as coastal trough pushes inland. Will introduce freezing
rain Saturday night and early Sunday with wording of chance of rain
possibly beginning as freezing rain.
SF, what are your thoughts
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Skywatch_NC
- Category 5
- Posts: 10949
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 9:31 pm
- Location: Raleigh, NC
- Contact:
Latest NWS update for my area of Roa Rpds:
Sunday:
Cloudy. Rain likely...possibly beginning as light freezing rain in the morning. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 3:55 PM EST on January 22, 2004
Alamance NC-Anson NC-Chatham NC-Cumberland NC-Davidson NC-Durham NC-Edgecombe NC-Forsyth NC-Franklin NC-Granville NC-Guilford NC-Halifax NC-Harnett NC-Hoke NC-Johnston NC-lee NC-Montgomery NC-Moore NC-Nash NC-Orange NC-person NC-Randolph NC-Richmond NC-Sampson NC-Scotland NC-Stanly NC-Vance NC-wake NC-Warren NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC- including the cities of... Albemarle... Asheboro... Burlington... Carthage... Cary... Chapel HIll... Clinton... Creedmoor... Durham... Fayetteville... Fort Bragg... Goldsboro... Graham... Greensboro... Halifax... Henderson... High Point... Hillsborough... Laurinburg... Lexington... Lillington... Louisburg... Mount Olive... Nashville... Oxford... Pittsboro... Raeford... Raleigh... Randleman... Roanoke Rapids... Rockingham... Rocky Mount... Roxboro... Sanford... Siler City... Smithfield... Southern Pines... Tarboro... Troy... Wadesboro... Warrenton and Winston-Salem 355 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2004
An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southern plains on Saturday. This low will move east into the mid Atlantic states late Saturday night into Sunday. It appears temperatures late Saturday night and Sunday morning will be marginally cold enough over the northern half of central North Carolina that the rain could begin as a mix with freezing rain. This area includes The Triad... Triangle and northern coastal plain. However... any mixture is expected to be brief and confined to the early morning. All rain is expected over the southern sections which includes Albemarle... Fayetteville... Smithfield and Goldsboro.
There is still some uncertainty to the track and speed of this developing weather system which will impact the amount of precipitation which falls over the mid Atlantic region.
All persons living in central North Carolina should stay abreast of the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service.
Sunday:
Cloudy. Rain likely...possibly beginning as light freezing rain in the morning. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 3:55 PM EST on January 22, 2004
Alamance NC-Anson NC-Chatham NC-Cumberland NC-Davidson NC-Durham NC-Edgecombe NC-Forsyth NC-Franklin NC-Granville NC-Guilford NC-Halifax NC-Harnett NC-Hoke NC-Johnston NC-lee NC-Montgomery NC-Moore NC-Nash NC-Orange NC-person NC-Randolph NC-Richmond NC-Sampson NC-Scotland NC-Stanly NC-Vance NC-wake NC-Warren NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC- including the cities of... Albemarle... Asheboro... Burlington... Carthage... Cary... Chapel HIll... Clinton... Creedmoor... Durham... Fayetteville... Fort Bragg... Goldsboro... Graham... Greensboro... Halifax... Henderson... High Point... Hillsborough... Laurinburg... Lexington... Lillington... Louisburg... Mount Olive... Nashville... Oxford... Pittsboro... Raeford... Raleigh... Randleman... Roanoke Rapids... Rockingham... Rocky Mount... Roxboro... Sanford... Siler City... Smithfield... Southern Pines... Tarboro... Troy... Wadesboro... Warrenton and Winston-Salem 355 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2004
An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southern plains on Saturday. This low will move east into the mid Atlantic states late Saturday night into Sunday. It appears temperatures late Saturday night and Sunday morning will be marginally cold enough over the northern half of central North Carolina that the rain could begin as a mix with freezing rain. This area includes The Triad... Triangle and northern coastal plain. However... any mixture is expected to be brief and confined to the early morning. All rain is expected over the southern sections which includes Albemarle... Fayetteville... Smithfield and Goldsboro.
There is still some uncertainty to the track and speed of this developing weather system which will impact the amount of precipitation which falls over the mid Atlantic region.
All persons living in central North Carolina should stay abreast of the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service.
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paradoxsixnine
- Tropical Storm
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FLguy
- Professional-Met
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Stormsfury wrote:Wow, I'm impressed ... the RAH discussion (AFD) goes against the GFS and clearly states that it's not to be trusted in that time frame ... and an excellent decision IMHO, in regards to how this model handled cold air damming and wedging (poorly and MUCH too quick to scour out the dammed cold air)...
SF
exactly right. the GFS and most other models cant pick up on the low level cold air in the layers just above the surface.
but how wretched was the GFS guidance for monday in DCA, 50F !!! how F***** up is that.
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Anonymous
FLguy wrote:Stormsfury wrote:Wow, I'm impressed ... the RAH discussion (AFD) goes against the GFS and clearly states that it's not to be trusted in that time frame ... and an excellent decision IMHO, in regards to how this model handled cold air damming and wedging (poorly and MUCH too quick to scour out the dammed cold air)...
SF
exactly right. the GFS and most other models cant pick up on the low level cold air in the layers just above the surface.
but how wretched was the GFS guidance for monday in DCA, 50F !!! how F***** up is that.
Yeah the GFS guidance for Monday was 50 degrees and it was wrong.......BUT I will still warm up above freezing on Monday........I would not be surprised to see 43 here is not milder.
It wasn't THAT far off.
-JEB
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