Sun/Mon System. Precip Types Perlim Map & Thoughts!

[Guest]

Well first thing first. And let me say that right now im feeling a bit more confident then usuall at this early point with exception to the east of the apps because of the problems with the cad setting up. I will say that i feel pretty confident from Baltimore north it should be mainly a snow event up to NYC and South of Baltimore to NC is where the battle should take place especially more so South of DC down to Central/Western North Carolina. And this could shift 50 miles in either direction so keep a watchfull eye on it.

Out in the OV the mixed precip should be found near the OH river on north to just south of i70 and north of there should be mainly snow with the heaviest falling from i70 north to about i80 in OH into western PA. Out here but this could shift by about 40 to 50 miles or so in either direction so keep a very watchfull eye on this from Central KY to se MI. South of thses areas the precip should be all rain.

The map below shows what i think the precip types should be. And i will add that some could be seeing amounts of 6 - 12 inches in the dark blue and areas in the lighter shade of blue i expect no more then 4 inches tops and areas in the pink could see up to 6 inches of the white stuff before mixing and or changeover takes place especially closer to the darker blue..............This will be updated again.

[Stephanie]

6 - 12 inches??? Wow!!

TWC has "snow showers" for Monday.

I know that all of the mets here have been treanding for a more significant storm than what the local forecasters and TWC have been showing (ala GFS).

[yoda]

That is a great map!! I too think that many mets are underestimating the potential for this storm because they continure to look at the gFS model. I agree with the snow totals too, King.... the 6-12 for us here in Northern VA would do nicely!!! Look forward to ur next updated map!

[WXBUFFJIM]

It could verify. This is something to watch.

Jim

[Guest]

Yep your correct Steph. Amazing how soon some forget about what has happend this winter. I will say though that this one is comming from a different direction then the last several which does have me slightly worried and why i say that things could shift about 50 miles or so on that map. SF already pointed out the problem which is clearly seen about the placement of the features in KY and TN. And lets all not forget that 6 - 12 means that you may get 6 inches and not 12 i kinda doubt "Right now anyways" that many will see a foot of snow from this but its possible anyways that a few will. I will tighten these numbers up as we get closer to the system.

[SacrydDreamz]

I must respectfully disagree with your map. I'd shift the heavier snow axis south about 150 miles or so with an ice threat for NW NC into southern VA. Doubt you'll see 6" in NC.. maybe not in southwestern VA. In events like this I wouldn't call 6" to a mix at the end mixed precip… I'd save that for areas that would be a mix the majority of the time (1-2" of slop max), such as an area from Raleigh to Greensboro to just north of Charlotte.

Even though I disagree with you at this time, NICE design!!

[Anonymous]

I will as usual counsel 'caution' here.

This is all fine. Everyone is getting excited. If I get snow I'll enjoy it; however I have long watched and endured the infamous 'North Trend' this winter.

I will remain cautious as usual concerning this 10% chance of snow in the Mid Atlantic. Models are already trending north. CAD will be having a hard time setting up. I am only trying to soften what for most of us here in the Virginia region and south could well turn out to be yet another tough, tough disappointment. Remember the trends this winter folks! Remember the trends! The Mid Atlantic wants snow..............But it may NOT be in the cards for us this winter.

That is my official position.

If you live north of Maryland then I confidently forecast 6 to 9 inches of snow, with possibly a changeover to IP, ZR or even SHRA before ending.

If you live in VA, be very, very cautious!!! Remember the trends this winter! The trends have always been north!!! The CAD, if any, will be negligible to none!!! Don't forget the TREND!!!

It's always North. 2003-2004 will be remembered for this. Mark this well.


-JEB

[Guest]

I must respectfully disagree with your map. I'd shift the heavier snow axis south about 150 miles or so with an ice threat for NW NC into southern VA. Doubt you'll see 6" in NC.. maybe not in southwestern VA. In events like this I wouldn't call 6" to a mix at the end mixed precip… I'd save that for areas that would be a mix the majority of the time (1-2" of slop max), such as an area from Raleigh to Greensboro to just north of Charlotte.

Even though I disagree with you at this time, NICE design!!

Umm thanks but as i clearly stated above this could shift 50 miles or so i have serious doubts that it will shift 150 farther south "Possible but not likely imo anyways" And as i said about that 6 i did say that those in areas closer to the Blue which is all snow would be the ones to possibly see that which means less as you head farther south. I will admit that it wouldnt suprise me to see some sort of mixed precip into se VA towards the Tidewater but they shouldnt see much in the way of that slop as the precip should quickly change to Rain down that way out to about i95 and as well the same could be said for most of eastern NC from about i95 on east. Western/Central NC into SW/Southern VA especially areas west of the Bay towards Richmond i will admit is a very tough call. I will say that i wouldnt make any plans on traveling up or down i85 from Richmond, VA south to about Charlotte, NC.

Anyways thanks For the comments SacyrdDreams time will tell!!!! And as well as i already said im almost certain the map above will change but shouldnt be a drastic change either of more then 50 miles or so.

[yoda]

What do you think about N. VA King? Will the D.C. area finally see snow of 6"+ with this storm IF it stays on cuurent track and your predictions are correct?

[Guest]

Right now its looking good yoda!

[donsutherland1]

KOW,

Looks good to me. I'm thinking 3"-6"/locally 8" from DCA to Philly (including nothern VA) but I usually err on the conservative side from this far out.

[2001kx]

hey you have the heavy snow line dipping right under me that cant be right-lol....im just kidding ya.
good job on the map.ill take the 0-4 inches and be happy with that,theres more hope on the horizon so ill wait patiently....

[2001kx]

but if it does shift make sure it shifts north

[Colin]

Meh...looks like a general 1-3" for me...oh well. Maybe next time.

[Stormchaser16]

Dec 5th......... last weeks clipper......... the storm after the clipper

Havent you had enough times?

[Anonymous]

Yup, just one of those 4 inch 'times' would have been enough for me, followed by a week of highs near 30, lows near 27 so I could enjoy it, then 60s all the rest of the winter.

Way things are lookin' VA will NOT even see ONE of those 'times'.




-JEB

[Guest]

Jeb i think you will be pleasently suprised come Sunday Night/Monday. Even if its not all now i think you will see a decent amount of snow from this system.

[Colin]

I guess, but it's just annoying that the biggest storm of the season may miss me...ah well. That's how it goes I guess.

[Anonymous]

Jeb i think you will be pleasently suprised come Sunday Night/Monday. Even if its not all now i think you will see a decent amount of snow from this system.

OKAY KOW, IF you are wrong I will still know you are a professional forecaster and one of the best ( and I MEAN that from the very bottom of my heart) BUT IF you are wrong and I get that inch to inch and a half of plain jane rain I am forecasting, I promise you I will go to OBX no fewer that 5 times this late summer and fall and stay in OBX mode all next winter LOL!!!



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

I guess, but it's just annoying that the biggest storm of the season may miss me...ah well. That's how it goes I guess.

Hey Colin you are in a snow favored region. Climo is good for you right through mid March, you will be digging out from snow while we are liming and fertilizing my lawn LOL!!

You have plenty of time for the BIG snow, and you'll get it. Trust me, you'll be crying for spring soon enough!! You will be TIRED of shoveling snow!



-JEB