J.B. is Honkin' Again..........

[Stormsfury]

southeast ridge is great news!!

NO, NO, NO ...

Once again ... the EC's depiction of a SE ridge IMHO, is total and pure crap ... first of all, with such strong Greenland Blocking AND A 50/50 LOW, there's virtually NO chance that the SE ridge pokes up with ANY amplitude ... the EC's bias of hanging/mishandling the Southwestern energy and bombing it into a 990 mb low over MN ... NOT to mention a 1039 mb damming HIGH in Eastern Canada on Day 7 ... what?

SF

[Stormchaser16]

EXACTLY SF!

[Chris the Weather Man]

southeast ridge is great news!!

NO, NO, NO ...

Once again ... the EC's depiction of a SE ridge IMHO, is total and pure crap ... first of all, with such strong Greenland Blocking AND A 50/50 LOW, there's virtually NO chance that the SE ridge pokes up with ANY amplitude ... the EC's bias of hanging/mishandling the Southwestern energy and bombing it into a 990 mb low over MN ... NOT to mention a 1039 mb damming HIGH in Eastern Canada on Day 7 ... what?

SF

1039 mb? That is a strong HIGH!

[Stormsfury]

Here's the ECMWF's depiction of the Day 7 500mb heights .... and look at the blocking structure towards Iceland/Greenland ... PLUS, the 50/50 low (or the NF low) ...

ECMWF Day 7...

ECMWF Day 7 MSLP North American View ... 1039 mb HIGH in Eastern Canada, in a classic position for CAD ...

SF

[Guest]

AS I said in the update


Now that being said let me emphasize that the strong ridge over the SE states is likely overdone given the 50/50 low over Newfoundland. BUT in any event the MEAN trough is back over western US BEFORE THE MONTH IS OUT.


YESa the euro ridge IS over done. Overruning snow and ice into the NE? Looks good to me. But even if there is a -NAO AND A 50/50 you can STILL have the mean trough out west.

THAT is the VERY way you GET the overrunning folks!

BTW that coldest air since 1977 BS is Now on DRUDGE REUTERS AP YAHOO MSNBC CNBC and when that forecast goes inton the crapper.... it will be the smaller forecaster like Me that catches hell from the enery traders.

FEW will remember whom said it which company and who was oppose to it.

southeast ridge is great news!!

NO, NO, NO ...

Once again ... the EC's depiction of a SE ridge IMHO, is total and pure crap ... first of all, with such strong Greenland Blocking AND A 50/50 LOW, there's virtually NO chance that the SE ridge pokes up with ANY amplitude ... the EC's bias of hanging/mishandling the Southwestern energy and bombing it into a 990 mb low over MN ... NOT to mention a 1039 mb damming HIGH in Eastern Canada on Day 7 ... what?

SF

[/b]

[Stormsfury]

AS I said in the update

Now that being said let me emphasize that the strong ridge over the SE states is likely overdone given the 50/50 low over Newfoundland. BUT in any event the MEAN trough is back over western US BEFORE THE MONTH IS OUT.

YESa the euro ridge IS over done. Overruning snow and ice into the NE? Looks good to me. But even if there is a -NAO AND A 50/50 you can STILL have the mean trough out west.

THAT is the VERY way you GET the overrunning folks!

BTW that coldest air since 1977 BS is Now on DRUDGE REUTERS AP YAHOO MSNBC CNBC and when that forecast goes inton the crapper.... it will be the smaller forecaster like Me that catches hell from the enery traders.

FEW will remember whom said it which company and who was oppose to it.

DT, I clearly understand your frustrations and believe me, I'd be seriously pissed also when I would get the blame for sometime that I never progged ... and frankly, it's quite sickening ...

For me, I only do this for hobby ... for you, this IS your bread and butter ... and you've done an outstanding job this year, especially with the overall pattern, and it really pisses me off to no end when people come after YOU for a forecast you NEVER made, or claim you busted when you clearly didn't ...

I've learned a lot from many, including self-teaching myself before I ever joined the messageboards late in 2002. Since I've came to the messageboards, I've learned a ton from you, the HM's, RNS, FLguy, NWP, and many various pro mets that I've corresponded with in person .. from general patterns, model biases, longwave patterns, teleconnections, etc ...

And one of the things I'm VERY familiar with is the CAD/Wedging phenomena living here in the Southeast, and what havoc it plays with the guidance ...

SF

[rainstorm]

the ridge may be overdone, but its better than the unrelenting cold we have now. 50 degrees will sem like a heat wave