Does anybody have any maps??
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Does anybody have any maps??
Does anyone have any maps regarding this upcoming weekends storm?
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donsutherland1
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Re: Does anybody have any maps??
Greg,
It's far too soon for details on this situation.
What looks possible (but is subject to change) based on a very early glance of the model guidance and synoptic pattern could be:
1) largest qpf somewhere from northern VA to southern PA/southern NJ.
2) threat of at least some accumulating snow from DCA to southern New England (probably lighter as one moves into southern New England and northward)--how much, is there a changeover in parts of this area, etc., are all subject to question; threat of at least a period of ice from NC across much of VA.
3) a reinforcing shot of cold should follow this storm
4) another possible storm near or just after midweek next week?
Bear in mind, there has been some shift north with respect to past events, so one should be at least somewhat wary of this recurring to some extent. I do believe that the blocking will prevent the storm from making a sharp turn up the coast but the location of its east-northeast track is somewhat uncertain.
It's far too soon for details on this situation.
What looks possible (but is subject to change) based on a very early glance of the model guidance and synoptic pattern could be:
1) largest qpf somewhere from northern VA to southern PA/southern NJ.
2) threat of at least some accumulating snow from DCA to southern New England (probably lighter as one moves into southern New England and northward)--how much, is there a changeover in parts of this area, etc., are all subject to question; threat of at least a period of ice from NC across much of VA.
3) a reinforcing shot of cold should follow this storm
4) another possible storm near or just after midweek next week?
Bear in mind, there has been some shift north with respect to past events, so one should be at least somewhat wary of this recurring to some extent. I do believe that the blocking will prevent the storm from making a sharp turn up the coast but the location of its east-northeast track is somewhat uncertain.
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Anonymous
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verycoolnin
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Stormsfury
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Anonymous
Stormsfury wrote:The fact of the matter is that the 12z globals are about as different as cheese and wine ... The spread is amazing even past 4 DAYS, let alone next week ... this is a nightmarish split flow pattern and it's only going to get even more complicated as the split flow continues ...
SF
Yep I forgot about the complexity of the split flow............I am trying to figure this weekend system WAY TOO EARLY lol.
We just have to wait...............................
-JEB
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Lowpressure
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
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Re: Does anybody have any maps??
Another day, more runs of the computer models, and the idea from yesterday remains in good shape:
<i>1) largest qpf somewhere from northern VA to southern PA/southern NJ.
2) threat of at least some accumulating snow from DCA to southern New England (probably lighter as one moves into southern New England and northward)--how much, is there a changeover in parts of this area, etc., are all subject to question; threat of at least a period of ice from NC across much of VA.
3) a reinforcing shot of cold should follow this storm
4) another possible storm near or just after midweek next week?</i>
Looking at possible analogs for February (and I'll post on this in more detail probably around Saturday), snows could be in abundance in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. This also ties in very well with the past history regarding December snowfall patterns and an early-season significant snowfall (on or before December 7). Thus, even at this point before I've completed my review of possible analogs for February, my confidence in above normal to much above normal snowfall from Washington, DC to Boston in February is high. The cold does not look to be anywhere near as severe relative to norms as it has been in January.
One can refer to FLguy's two outstanding posts on how he sees things evolving e.g., with respect to ENSO and QBO. A number of the analogs I'm reviewing point to things FLguy had mentioned.
Reference (FLguy's posts):
<b>2nd Half of Winter '03-'04: Part 1</b>
<b>2nd Half of Winter '03-'04: Part 2</b>
<i>1) largest qpf somewhere from northern VA to southern PA/southern NJ.
2) threat of at least some accumulating snow from DCA to southern New England (probably lighter as one moves into southern New England and northward)--how much, is there a changeover in parts of this area, etc., are all subject to question; threat of at least a period of ice from NC across much of VA.
3) a reinforcing shot of cold should follow this storm
4) another possible storm near or just after midweek next week?</i>
Looking at possible analogs for February (and I'll post on this in more detail probably around Saturday), snows could be in abundance in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. This also ties in very well with the past history regarding December snowfall patterns and an early-season significant snowfall (on or before December 7). Thus, even at this point before I've completed my review of possible analogs for February, my confidence in above normal to much above normal snowfall from Washington, DC to Boston in February is high. The cold does not look to be anywhere near as severe relative to norms as it has been in January.
One can refer to FLguy's two outstanding posts on how he sees things evolving e.g., with respect to ENSO and QBO. A number of the analogs I'm reviewing point to things FLguy had mentioned.
Reference (FLguy's posts):
<b>2nd Half of Winter '03-'04: Part 1</b>
<b>2nd Half of Winter '03-'04: Part 2</b>
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