J.B. is Honkin' Again..........

Winter Weather Discussion

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Anonymous

J.B. is Honkin' Again..........

#1 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 20, 2004 3:30 pm

I got this article from the Netscape news, NOT J.B.'s Column.


Check it out. What I'd like to know is, Can I believe it? I'd LOVE severe cold for another 3 weeks AFTER I get a good snow, that would set me up for many, many excellent jebwalks in the snow!! :)


Extreme Cold Expected Over Next 2-3 Weeks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The United States east of the Rocky Mountains will see extreme cold in the next two to three weeks with at least one forecaster calling it the coldest in 25 years, meteorologists said on Tuesday.

"In the next six to 10 days, it will be colder than normal north of a line from Washington, D.C. to Denver," said Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather. "In the next 15 to 20 days, everybody is extremely cold including freezes into Florida and Texas.

"In the worst-case scenario, in much of the energy consuming areas of the country, from the Rockies to New England, can look at the coldest 10- to 20-day periods since the winters of 1977 and 1978," Bastardi said.

Oil and heating oil prices were up partly on colder forecasts than last Friday when the markets were last open, oil industry analysts said on Tuesday. Heating oil futures hit $1.0230 a gallon, up 4.3 percent with crude oil hitting a high of $36.20 a barrel, up 3.2 percent.

Natural gas futures hit a high of $6.315 per million British thermal units, up 5.2 percent, with the link to weather more clear, said energy traders and analysts.

And forecasters agree.

"Everybody is waking up to this," Bastardi said of the extreme cold forecasts for the next 10- to 15 days. "Natural gas is surging like crazy this morning."

Bastardi points out that he correctly predicted that New England several weeks ago would experience its lowest temperatures since 1994 or 1996, and that proved correct.

Chris Hyde, meteorologist with EarthSat forecasters, also said the next two to three weeks will be colder than normal, but he did not say whether temperatures will be as low as 1977 or 1978.

"The more notable change versus last week's forecast is across the Midwest," Hyde said. "The Boston-to-Washington D.C. corridor will continue to hang tough with the chilly readings with little volatility."

The National Weather Service is predicting that Friday the Midwest and Northeast will have temperatures 8 F to 12 F below normal, with Jan. 27 still showing below normal temperatures for northern New England and with temperatures near normal for New York City.

Forecaster Meteorlogix said the five-day outlook for the Northeast shows up to 12 F below normal by Wednesday and up to 15F below normal by Saturday. In the same time period, the Midwest will be up to 10 F below normal Wednesday and up to 4 F below normal on Saturday.

The six- to 10-day forecast shows "below normal" temperatures for the Northeast and northern part of the Midwest, Meteorlogix said on Tuesday.

Florida's citrus and vegetable growers probably not have to worry about frost in the next two weeks, Hyde said.

For the citrus-growing area from Orlando southward, EarthSat is calling for "seasonal" temperatures in its 11-15 day forecast.

"Overall, these cold air masses are not penetrating that far south," said Hyde.

Bastardi added that there will be significant snowfall over much of the Eastern United States in the next three weeks.

"Snow lovers are going to have storms and rumors of storms," Bastardi said.

"This could be one of the top five coldest Januarys in New England, in the last 50 years anyway," Bastardi said.




This article can be found at:
http://channels.netscape.com/ns/weather ... 40113NY413


Let the discussion begin!!!!!!

-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#2 Postby JCT777 » Tue Jan 20, 2004 3:35 pm

Joe B loves to hype cold and snow. At least it looks like the cold part will be correct. Hopefully, the snow part is correct too.
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#3 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 20, 2004 3:37 pm

Joe B is honking cold. Okay, does this cold he's honking about have anything to do with the Greenland Block and the NEG NAO?





-JEB
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#4 Postby Lowpressure » Tue Jan 20, 2004 3:53 pm

NWS D.C says that future shifts may need to change the Sunday snow event to a mixed precip event if models continue to get warmer. Somebody is missing something here. This is two totally different trains of thought.
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#5 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 20, 2004 4:01 pm

Lowpressure wrote:NWS D.C says that future shifts may need to change the Sunday snow event to a mixed precip event if models continue to get warmer. Somebody is missing something here. This is two totally different trains of thought.





I am treating the "weekend snow event" with a good deal of caution. It would certainly be nice, and I would even be satisfied with a mere 3 inches and sleet and drizzle of frzra, but this winter is certainly not cutting the MA any deals.

So I treat all these "possibilities" with a good dollop of caution.

Probably the models will trend colder by Friday or Saturday.

Today we hit 28 for a high, yesterday it topped out at 29. Too bad we can't do that over the weekend thru Monday. Seems like the good winters for snow for the MA, we see SO MUCH snow, but during winters like the present one, we can't buy a snow shower.

I know winter is FAR from over, but I am already beginning to think about my spring planting. You know, the one great thing about spring here in these parts is, spring always comes. Nothing ever has to come together for the MA to enjoy spring. Spring is to the Mid Atlantic as snow is to Atlantic Canada LOL!


-JEB!!!! :)
Last edited by Anonymous on Tue Jan 20, 2004 4:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#6 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 20, 2004 4:04 pm

Then again, you never know what will happen when that PAC Jet and the good 'ole Greenland Block and NEG NAO get together and Party!!!!!

We might just wake up one morning with three feet of snow and bitter cold temps and 30 to 50mph arctic advection and a two-week-long digging-out session!!!!!



-JEB
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#7 Postby 2001kx » Tue Jan 20, 2004 4:27 pm

We might just wake up one morning with three feet of snow and bitter cold temps and 30 to 50mph arctic advection and a two-week-long digging-out session!!!!!


i wouldnt count on that jeb... :cry: [/quote]
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#8 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 20, 2004 4:31 pm

2001kx wrote:
We might just wake up one morning with three feet of snow and bitter cold temps and 30 to 50mph arctic advection and a two-week-long digging-out session!!!!!


i wouldnt count on that jeb... :cry:
[/quote]



AGREED on that................NWS discussion is already saying this weekend will be warmer, and next week will be in to 40s if not milder.


-JEB
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#9 Postby TNSnowbunny » Tue Jan 20, 2004 4:45 pm

My NWS doesn't agree with JB...they're forecasting 40's for highs. That's not cold to me :)
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#10 Postby Guest » Tue Jan 20, 2004 4:50 pm

Right now im a little more worried about a big icing event for these areas especially for the southern OV over into the MA for next week. Either way the stormy days are back again for the next couple of weeks atleast as i said in my other thread.
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#11 Postby therock1811 » Tue Jan 20, 2004 5:02 pm

I think that might be bad for me...hope for no ice, but I do want snow...
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#12 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Jan 20, 2004 5:17 pm

JB said last week that snow was a good chance for the far south, Texas eastward.....NOT :D
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#13 Postby JCT777 » Tue Jan 20, 2004 5:18 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:JB said last week that snow was a good chance for the far south, Texas eastward.....NOT :D


Maybe he meant there was a good chance sometime between now and next January. :wink:
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rainstorm

#14 Postby rainstorm » Tue Jan 20, 2004 6:34 pm

JCT777 wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:JB said last week that snow was a good chance for the far south, Texas eastward.....NOT :D


Maybe he meant there was a good chance sometime between now and next January. :wink:


lol!!
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#15 Postby timNms » Tue Jan 20, 2004 7:17 pm

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#16 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jan 20, 2004 7:46 pm

Unfortunately JB isn't forecasting this extreme cold to penetrate too far south so our mild deep south winter will likely continue and end that way :(
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more realisitic view

#17 Postby Guest » Tue Jan 20, 2004 9:46 pm

so how was last weeks DC to BOSTON blizzard? anyone get a blizzard?

http://www.wxrisk.com/meteopage.html
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#18 Postby rainstorm » Tue Jan 20, 2004 9:49 pm

southeast ridge is great news!!
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Re: more realisitic view

#19 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Tue Jan 20, 2004 9:53 pm

DT wrote:so how was last weeks DC to BOSTON blizzard? anyone get a blizzard?

http://www.wxrisk.com/meteopage.html



You were right again! Mr DT..... I have great respect for your forecasting abilties..... :wink:

No one got a Blizzard.............. NONE.
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#20 Postby Stormchaser16 » Tue Jan 20, 2004 9:54 pm

DT! :D Great to see ya, I know you hate me lol.... but great discussion on your website tonight.

1 Question though: 50/50 low and -NAO will not allow for a SE ridge to develop, i think the heights on the euro tonight are off because of the low traversing through the central plains into MN (which is unlikely given the euro's bias to hold the energy back), which allows the western tough to amplify and the northern stream s/w pulls into the country very early and phases with the STJ s/w. Unlikely given the fact that the trough will be progressing east of Hawaii. Which brings up my next point. Let us assume the trough does shift into the west, once again i still cant see strong SE ridge developing(which i know that you do not either), the trough east of Hawaii should eventually allow that to pull back out east.
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