Raleigh NWS discussion

[Weather4Life23]

Hey guys. This is from the KRAH area discussion about this coming weekend possibilities of weather.

A shortwave trough in the northwest flow
will bring some middle level clouds on Saturday...followed by another
shot of cold air Saturday night. Closed low in the southern stream
over the Baja California ejects northeast Friday and approaches North Carolina as an open trough on Sunday. GFS shows a wedge/coastal front pattern and Miller b cyclogenesis...indicating cad and frozen precipitation are a possibility on Sunday. Given timing issues with this type of pattern and potential model bias...it is way too early to forecast anything but
rain at this point...but it will bear watching if the models show
consistency. Up to this point...consistency is absent with latest
12z GFS just out showing a dry scenario and suppressing
precipitation well south.

To me this is reminding me of the discussion they had with the ice storm of 2002 and even the jan 2-3 snowstorm of the same year. Also, these dates in January are historically known for winter storms in NC and along the east coast. Im really interested to see what the models will be showing in the coming days.

[FLguy]

the GFS 12z run may have been a hiccup

[Weather4Life23]

We will see in a couple of hours what the 18z GFS shows.

[Lowpressure]

Model performance as of late has been less than desirable. Forecasting D.C. for up to 4 inches last Wed getting zero with clipper staying North and much deeper giving Penn up to 9 inches when only forecasted 2-4. Not much confidence in models 12 hours out, never mind 7-10 days. Clippers should be easy to forecast, big potential B storms are much trickier especially in the heart of January.

[JQ Public]

our local met mentioned smthg about this too, but also said that this is waaaaaaaaaay waaaaaaaaaay too far out!

[Stormsfury]

The 18z GFS is starting to catch onto the CAD idea ... the 12z GFS was an obvious burp ...

Anyway, the GFS again, doesn't fully latch onto the idea of CAD, however, DOES have a general 1024-1028mb HIGH in Eastern Canada, and somewhat teleconnects ok with the overall pattern, BUT it's wanting to build a small SFC poke (high) out ahead of the s/w ... and too aggressively warms thickness schemes out ahead of the shortwave and also has the isobar contours orientated NNW/SSE across the normally favored damming regions... doesn't quite make sense.

Also, on this run, the s/w energy is ejected quite nicely by another s/w diving over the top of the PNA ridging out west, and acts to push out the 1st vort lobe....

SF

SF