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ECMWF/other globals return storminess to the country in the
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
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I hope I get something out of it...-
Anonymous
Increased storminess in the CONUS does not necessarily mean that we will see snow out of it. Increased storminess means wetter model solutions and thus WARMER AIRMASSES.
Increased storminess does mean more snow to the Rockies and other western mountain ranges, and also more snow in the Northeastern states because they are located farther north and are more climatologically favored for snow.
The increased storminess may indeed mean more chances for storms in the Mid Atlantic, but I have a feeling that along with the increase in storms, the Mid Atlantic will also have to take the milder airmasses as well, which will translate to rain and maybe slop (if we are very, very lucky), but with the overwhelming evidence of models and actual storm tracks this winter tending to trend overwhelmingly NORTH, I can forecast much, much more in the way of rain for the Mid Atlantic in late Jan, all through Feb, and March is a given for rainfall. Another thing folks, concerning the Mid Atlantic, is climo: Every week that passes, we will see the days get longer, the sun angle increasing, and the daytime highs, lows and daily averages are climbing, climbing, and climbing each and every day. This is an unavoidable fact.
In short: The Mid Atlantic has had its chance, and all of us here in the Mid Atlantic have come up short. From this point on in the winter, it is all luck. Each week that goes by, Climo is more and more and more against snow lovers. I have been living in this part of the world for 30 years and I know what I am talking about. It is only going to get milder, particularly after about Feb 10. We are heading into a retrogressive pattern, and we do not have a snowball's chance in hell of getting snow in the Mid Atlantic, not the way things have been going so far. What on earth makes you ever think that we can get a good accumulating snow here in the Mid Atlantic, if we could not do so when we had a Western Ridge and Arctic air in the East?
In December I was a fool, and I may well still be a fool now. I was dead wrong about that "mild winter". But with a Western Trough and an Eastern Ridge, I just don't see how the Mid Atlantic will get a big snow. Heck, we couldn't get it when there WAS a ridge out west and arctic air here in the East.
All I want is the straight truth here folks.
Because I can see, this is NO major winter for the Mid Atlantic.
It will continue to be for the SNE and the NE, for the Rockies, the Great Lakes, and may be to some extent for the upper Midwest and the Central and Northern Plains. This is because of those places' locations, and because of their climatology.
The Mid Atlantic's time is up, and it's obvious.
-JEB.........beginning to dream of his 77/64 OBX jebwalks again........
Increased storminess does mean more snow to the Rockies and other western mountain ranges, and also more snow in the Northeastern states because they are located farther north and are more climatologically favored for snow.
The increased storminess may indeed mean more chances for storms in the Mid Atlantic, but I have a feeling that along with the increase in storms, the Mid Atlantic will also have to take the milder airmasses as well, which will translate to rain and maybe slop (if we are very, very lucky), but with the overwhelming evidence of models and actual storm tracks this winter tending to trend overwhelmingly NORTH, I can forecast much, much more in the way of rain for the Mid Atlantic in late Jan, all through Feb, and March is a given for rainfall. Another thing folks, concerning the Mid Atlantic, is climo: Every week that passes, we will see the days get longer, the sun angle increasing, and the daytime highs, lows and daily averages are climbing, climbing, and climbing each and every day. This is an unavoidable fact.
In short: The Mid Atlantic has had its chance, and all of us here in the Mid Atlantic have come up short. From this point on in the winter, it is all luck. Each week that goes by, Climo is more and more and more against snow lovers. I have been living in this part of the world for 30 years and I know what I am talking about. It is only going to get milder, particularly after about Feb 10. We are heading into a retrogressive pattern, and we do not have a snowball's chance in hell of getting snow in the Mid Atlantic, not the way things have been going so far. What on earth makes you ever think that we can get a good accumulating snow here in the Mid Atlantic, if we could not do so when we had a Western Ridge and Arctic air in the East?
In December I was a fool, and I may well still be a fool now. I was dead wrong about that "mild winter". But with a Western Trough and an Eastern Ridge, I just don't see how the Mid Atlantic will get a big snow. Heck, we couldn't get it when there WAS a ridge out west and arctic air here in the East.
All I want is the straight truth here folks.
Because I can see, this is NO major winter for the Mid Atlantic.
It will continue to be for the SNE and the NE, for the Rockies, the Great Lakes, and may be to some extent for the upper Midwest and the Central and Northern Plains. This is because of those places' locations, and because of their climatology.
The Mid Atlantic's time is up, and it's obvious.
-JEB.........beginning to dream of his 77/64 OBX jebwalks again........
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
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- Location: New York
Re: ECMWF/other globals return storminess to the country in
Very good and informative discussion, SF. Let's see how the opportunities for storms are realized. It will be interesting to see how things unfold in the near-term and also in February.
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Below N.O.
- Tropical Low
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
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- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
Below N.O. wrote:Awesome weather page SF. What is it going to take to bring some of the true Arctic cold all the way down to the New Orleans area?
It would take an inland running phased storm system (something I don't see at this time) to drop arctic air and plunge it DUE SOUTH (ala Blue Norther style) ...
Anyway, just a quick and newer update ... basically, MIGHT be looking pretty decent for NC and VA in regards to wintry weather possibilities in the MR (this weekend) and the storminess potential continues thereafter...also, potential for the cooler weather pattern won't break as soon as expected either.
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