Need Some Help

[aveosmth]

Because you guys were so awesome in helping me w/my snow in Los Angeles thread, I wanted to see if you could help me locate the GFS forecast that the National Weather Service is forecasting.....they are extremely doubtful, but I would just like to see it to see what to look if & when it ever snows in Los Angeles....I copied the weather discussion below

FXUS66 KLOX 161119
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 AM PST FRI JAN 16 2004

.SHORT TERM...
OFFSHORE FLOW HAS QUIT AND MARINE LAYER IS SURGING INTO COAST. NOT
QUITE AN EDDY. DENSE FOG IS LIMITED INDICATING THAT MARINE LAYER HAS
LIFTED A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED. REMOVED MOST WINDS AND INCREASED
STRATUS COVERAGE. INCREASED MARINE LAYER SHOULD COUNTERACT ANY WARMING
CAUSED BY THE INCREASED THKNS. GOOD CLOUD INTRUSION FROM THE SAN
JOAQUIN VLY.

ETA DOES INDICATE AN EDDY TONIGHT AS WELL AS GOOD CENTRAL COAST
STRATUS EVENT. EXPECT A GOOD STRATUS BLANKET TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTS AND VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE INLAND SLO VLY.

SATURDAY WILL BE OK MORE LIKE JUNE WITH SUNNY SKIES AFTER MORNING LOW
CLOUDS. ACTUALLY CLEARING TO THE COAST MAY BE AN OPTION AND SAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE ANALYSE TO SEE IF CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE TOO STRONG TO
BURN OFF. TEMPS WL REAMIN ABOUT THE SAME.

MDLS CONTINUE THEIR CONFUSED DISCORDANT PATTERN FOR SUNDAY NOW
INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EITHER DIE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OR DIVE SOUTH. EITHER WAY CURRENT THINKING IS LESS OF A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND LATER THIS SEEMS GOOD AND IS THE WAY CURRENT FORECAST LOOK SO DID
NOT CHANGE IT.

.LONG TERM...
MDL CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO DID MAKE ANY CHANGES. NEW GFS INDICATES SOME
ENERY AND MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND A FOUR CORNER LOW BUT WOULD LIKE
TO SEE MDL CONSENSUS OR AT LEAST SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTANCY B4
PUTTING IT INTO THE FORECAST. AFTERWARDS IT LOOKS LIKE AN OFFSHORE
EVENT WILL SET UP.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO LIKE INTERESTING FICTION THE 240 HR PANEL OF THE
GFS HAS A MONSTER COLD LOW OVER L.A. WHICH WOULD PROBABLY DROP SOME
SNOW ON BURBANK....

[Stephanie]

Her you go;

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml

The 12z run is probably the one they were talking about. The 18z run would be the 228 hour - as you can see, it's not as impressive.

The NWS has the forecast models for the GFS.

[aveosmth]

Thanks so much!!!

[Stephanie]

No problem!!

[aveosmth]

BTW, im learning so much about weather from you guys.....anyways,

When does a scenario like this become more likely....5 to 7 days out??? Obviously, we can never tell for sure....just curious

TIA,

Aveo

[Stephanie]

I have so much to learn myself. I'd say that when you get 2 -3 days out you can probably feel more comfortable with the forecasts. Also, if the the models are in agreement, then you can feel much more confident about the storm/event occurring.

[Guest]

Thanks Stephanie. Agreed. Best to watch when the event is within 3 days or so.

Thanks aveosmth for the kind words.

[Stephanie]

Thanks Stephanie. Agreed. Best to watch when the event is within 3 days or so.

Thanks aveosmth for the kind words.

See! I'm learning!

[aveosmth]

KOW, Youre very welcome!!!!!

Stephanie, thats what I figured about 3 days or so out.....it looks like it has weakened somewhat, but thicknesses are still looking fairly good....and they are the lowest Ive ever seen in SoCal....

Aveo

[aveosmth]

The 240/00z run of the GFS for today the 16th would be a total dream to us in Los Angeles....wintry precip that would stick......oh well, looks like the bulk of the energy has now shifted to Tucson/Phoenix.....but its such a long way out who knows what will happen....

[Stephanie]

I can't even imagine snow in southern California, let alone Tucson or Phoenix!

[Cumulonimbus]

As far as snow in LA..that would be quite a stretch but it has happened before. I remember just a month ago when everybody on the east coast was moaning and groaning about winter and some had even given up on the idea winter would come...much less arctic air. One thing that is required when watching the weather or the forecasts is patience...LOTS of patience. Even up to the time an event is about to occur...things can and do change.
So here we are a month later and winter did indeed pay the east coast...well the northeast anyway a visit to remember and that "darn se ridge" finally went away. It looks cooler now further south so maybe the folks in the se will get a taste of winter too.
Hang in there Aveo...you never can tell. Not likely to see snow in Burbank but one can ALWAYS hope and that is what makes it all worthwhile!

[aveosmth]

I will definitely keep the faith!!!! I just want a taste of old man winter to come our way.....you guys have a pretty decent winter up there as well.

[Cumulonimbus]

OK-yes we have had winter...December was fairly cold and we even had a good snowstorm in Seattle. Looks like the pattern is beginning to change and we may cool off again. I just take it 1 day at a time and hope that winter pays us another visit. I like snow and cold weather and we seldom get cold enough for it to snow here in Seattle. However we have already had it once so I am glad for what we got. If it happens again that would fun also.

Alex

[ColdFront77]

I can't even imagine snow in southern California, let alone Tucson or Phoenix!

[url=http://www.arizonagolfer.net/weather.htm]
Tucson and Phoenix, Arizona:

Average High/Low Temp. (°F)
Relative Humidity (%)
Extreme Temp. (Days Per Month)
Rain (Inches), Cloudiness (Days Per Month)[/url]


"How cold can it get in Flagstaff?"

[RU848789]

RU848789: all man, right down to my pretty, painted toenails (just kidding on the toenails part)