.....can we have an arctic outbreak such as this, and mild up in only 24 hours, and have an excellent prognosis for a mix/rain event.
Arctic air.......
This arctic outbreak is definately SEVERE in the Northeast. However, in the central MA and points south, it is only a glancing blow that's rapidly sliding east. For example, we hit 12 last night. Today we were progged to top out at 28. Now that's been changed to 30. Tonight, 17 for a low. Tomorrow....HELLO? 35 for a high.
Possible storm......
Need to see the latest model runs to be sure, but as I was saying......Only in Virginia, is it indeed possible, to have arctic air in place, and mild up, in only 24 hours, and not even have consolation flurries out of the warm advection process. In the Northeast, when they have a warmup, it comes with snow showers. At least they get something.
When and if we do get a storm tomorrow night or Sunday, we'll have no problem at all receiving rain or a sleet frzra mix to rain, with no accumulation. Like I said folks, Virginia is downright LEGENDARY for losing arctic airmasses in 24 hours or less, without any snow or squat in the process. We can well be 25 for a high one day, and 45 the next, without so much as a single cloud, let alone a lone flurry or two to mark the transition. Virginia has everyone in the CONUS at this latitude beat at "Mild Capital of the United States lol"
When and if we do get a storm of any description Saturday night into Sunday and/or Monday, I will wager you that this arctic airmass will leave us so effortlessly just before the event, that we will hop aboard the legendary Red/Green Line and ride it for free to a glum, grim, washed-out destination where we will never find so much as a pile of rain-beaten slush. The ground will be barren of snow, and the accompanying bare soil/atmospheric feedback loop issues will certainly assure all of us here in hapless Virginia, of milder weather with the 100% promise of rain, and soaking rains at that. Climatic changes have long ago robbed us of the bygone days when we actually used to get about 6 inches of snow, then changed to sleet, frzra then rain. That is something that does not happen here, not anymore, let alone a decent, 6 to 8 inch snow that stays all snow throughout the event here in Virginia. Virginians DREAM of these things folks, but we might as well live in the fine city of Houston, Texas, or the fine location of Miami, Florida, for all that ever transpires here in northern Virginia lol.
I don't know how Mother Nature does it here in the MA. That is a real mystery. How the Northeast enjoys severe arctic cold, and RECORD-BREAKING arctic cold at that, and here in Virginia, we get ordinary, ho-hum, we've seen this before, hey I'm yawning and falling asleep arctic cold. Our low of 12 was chilly to be sure, but what of our old progged high of 28 today, which has been raised 2, to 30? Hey this is no poker game lol. Here in Virginia we are beginning to witness an alarming trend of arctic airmasses which will cool us down for a week, two weeks, then in only 24 hours, give way to significantly milder weather which will, 9 times out of ten, set the stage for rain or a sloppy mix to all rain.
Climatic change is serious stuff, it's real, and it is happening to real people, right here in Virginia.
If you folks freezing your @sses off in the Northeast want relief, go no farther than Virginia. This is your promised land, flowing with plenty of clean water and mild, balmy breezes. No arctic occupation or significant snow here folks.
-JEB
Only in Virginia.......
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Anonymous
Only in Virginia.......
Last edited by Anonymous on Fri Jan 16, 2004 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Anonymous
Yup, when arctic air occupies the MA, and there is some moisture present, say from overrunning WAA, there is always the dry-column issues. Sometimes we get very lucky and the dry air will be moistened up and we will see snow at the SFC.
Seems that we need arctic air to have significant snow here in the MA, but the problem is, then we have to get enough moisture to moisten up the dry column. Trouble is, with increased moisture comes warmer-air issues, and THAT folks is where all the would-be winter storm tears are shed by eager snow lovers here.
It's as though we have to strike a very, very, very fine balance here in the MA between cold arctic air and moisture to even see snow at the surface. It's when that ever-elusive balance is reached over the MA and maintained, that you will hit the jackpot with a Feb 19 1979 type storm.
On late Feb snows: Yes, that is when we do tend to get them here. I think one factor playing into that late Feb climo are the admittedly colder ocean temps off Va at that time of the year. Thus the oceanic air problem is terrible, but not near as bad as we have to deal with in say, December, when the ocean temps are significantly warmer and a would-be snowstorm over VA changes to rain from oceanic air at the mid-level issues.
But the one BIG, BIG, BIG caveat associated with these famous late February snowstorms is this:
CLIMO: It bites us right in the *ss!
We get the nice late Feb blizzard. Hell, it could even dump the 36 inches I want so bad. Trouble is, climo is inescapable, and it has horrific ramifications here in the MA in late February: It is inevitable that about 4 to 11 days after a big late Feb snow event, we will get very mild temps plus heavy, heavy amounts of rainfall to boot. Snow lovers cry as their snow melts, often in only two days, and people in downtown Alexandria begin to prepare for Isabel-like flooding of the very worst kind.
There is another very sad issue that I wanted to address here: The fact that when there is a lot of arctic air in the NE and MA, that storms get suppressed south.
Well, is there any question in anyone's mind on Jan 14-15 of the existence of arctic air in the NE/MA? Of course, there should not have been. Look at some of the crazy snow to liquid ratios over PA and DE, for example.
So, with all that arctic air in place and the Polar Vortex displaced south, then why did we not see suppression in action concerning the track of the Jan 14/15 Clipper? A little suppression would have gone a long way for parts of the MA during that event.
Say, a southern jog of 30 or so miles. That would in all likelihood have given parts of VA at least a couple inches instead of the 94 graupel-like snow pellets that I did see at 130am with that system.
With all the arctic air in place, where was the suppression then? Also, these clippers are probably the best chance that N VA has of seeing a good 2 to 4 inch snow, because with the clippers, there are slim-to-none warm-air issues from the Red/Green Line (The rain/snow line). It is just too bad indeed that we had to miss out on that, because I will wager you that we stand about an overall 95% chance of picking up a good deal of rain (Okay, maybe some sleet mixed in) with these next few southern-stream events. Like N VA really needs more rain-----what we need is to dry out if we don't get snow----but, rain seems to be the Mid Atlantic's biggest pastime of late.
If you love snow then it follows that the Mid Atlantic is one of the very WORST places you could EVER live in. This place DOES get a memorable snow about once every 7 to 12 years, otherwise, some years it gets arctic air, some years it does not get arctic air. Most of the storms do work out to a rain or a mix. If it does snow, there will be 'starved-for-moisture' issues and thus light snow. Thus the 'half-inch-event' syndrome of the last storm that DID manage to hit us. In December we can get snows, but many of those get the 'beaten-down-by-rain' treatment. This is precisely what happened this very past December. On December 4th we got 2 inches of snow, which were promptly beaten down to a quarter-inch by rain, Then we got 2 more inches. Then the next storm was lovely----It dumped 5.5 inches of snow----I danced with joy----Until you guessed it, the RAIN, came in and mercilessly beat that snow down to an inch and a half. I watched that 5 inch snow on the road and sidewalk----that I had wanted to be plowed SO bad so I could go and enjoy my precious jebwalk and look at plowed piles of snow while blasting my Christian music on my CD headphones-------get MELTED to zilch on the roads and sidewalks, by a relentless moderate rain that would NOT let up one little bit. I could not help myself------I sobbed as though my entire family had died (God forbid)-----because I indeed could see exactly all too well what kind of winter we will have this season--what kind of winter we are indeed already having, and will continue to experience this very upcoming weekend. We'll take a ride on the Red/Green Line, and it will be perfectly free folks. This will be a fast ride, and this Line always runs when there is a storm here in the Mid Atlantic. It will be speedy-----and everyone living in the MA always gets a free ticket. On certain special occasions, people in the Northeastern Corridor are also treated to free tickets on the Red/Green Line.
The destination is starkly obvious.
The destination is green grass and brown soil, saturated with rainwater. Watch your step----there will be puddles. I already have a hole in my right shoe from too many jebwalks lol. Watch the muddy ground too. You need to be careful as you gingerly step from this train.
We hope you enjoyed the ride-----And try to have a nice day. Occasional showers are forecast. You'll only need one thin coat. Highs in the 40s are on tap-----enjoy the thaw. It won't take long to thaw out.
Welcome to the Mid Atlantic.
-Mid Atlantic JEB..........IN the Mid Atlantic for LIFE.
Seems that we need arctic air to have significant snow here in the MA, but the problem is, then we have to get enough moisture to moisten up the dry column. Trouble is, with increased moisture comes warmer-air issues, and THAT folks is where all the would-be winter storm tears are shed by eager snow lovers here.
It's as though we have to strike a very, very, very fine balance here in the MA between cold arctic air and moisture to even see snow at the surface. It's when that ever-elusive balance is reached over the MA and maintained, that you will hit the jackpot with a Feb 19 1979 type storm.
On late Feb snows: Yes, that is when we do tend to get them here. I think one factor playing into that late Feb climo are the admittedly colder ocean temps off Va at that time of the year. Thus the oceanic air problem is terrible, but not near as bad as we have to deal with in say, December, when the ocean temps are significantly warmer and a would-be snowstorm over VA changes to rain from oceanic air at the mid-level issues.
But the one BIG, BIG, BIG caveat associated with these famous late February snowstorms is this:
CLIMO: It bites us right in the *ss!
We get the nice late Feb blizzard. Hell, it could even dump the 36 inches I want so bad. Trouble is, climo is inescapable, and it has horrific ramifications here in the MA in late February: It is inevitable that about 4 to 11 days after a big late Feb snow event, we will get very mild temps plus heavy, heavy amounts of rainfall to boot. Snow lovers cry as their snow melts, often in only two days, and people in downtown Alexandria begin to prepare for Isabel-like flooding of the very worst kind.
There is another very sad issue that I wanted to address here: The fact that when there is a lot of arctic air in the NE and MA, that storms get suppressed south.
Well, is there any question in anyone's mind on Jan 14-15 of the existence of arctic air in the NE/MA? Of course, there should not have been. Look at some of the crazy snow to liquid ratios over PA and DE, for example.
So, with all that arctic air in place and the Polar Vortex displaced south, then why did we not see suppression in action concerning the track of the Jan 14/15 Clipper? A little suppression would have gone a long way for parts of the MA during that event.
Say, a southern jog of 30 or so miles. That would in all likelihood have given parts of VA at least a couple inches instead of the 94 graupel-like snow pellets that I did see at 130am with that system.
With all the arctic air in place, where was the suppression then? Also, these clippers are probably the best chance that N VA has of seeing a good 2 to 4 inch snow, because with the clippers, there are slim-to-none warm-air issues from the Red/Green Line (The rain/snow line). It is just too bad indeed that we had to miss out on that, because I will wager you that we stand about an overall 95% chance of picking up a good deal of rain (Okay, maybe some sleet mixed in) with these next few southern-stream events. Like N VA really needs more rain-----what we need is to dry out if we don't get snow----but, rain seems to be the Mid Atlantic's biggest pastime of late.
If you love snow then it follows that the Mid Atlantic is one of the very WORST places you could EVER live in. This place DOES get a memorable snow about once every 7 to 12 years, otherwise, some years it gets arctic air, some years it does not get arctic air. Most of the storms do work out to a rain or a mix. If it does snow, there will be 'starved-for-moisture' issues and thus light snow. Thus the 'half-inch-event' syndrome of the last storm that DID manage to hit us. In December we can get snows, but many of those get the 'beaten-down-by-rain' treatment. This is precisely what happened this very past December. On December 4th we got 2 inches of snow, which were promptly beaten down to a quarter-inch by rain, Then we got 2 more inches. Then the next storm was lovely----It dumped 5.5 inches of snow----I danced with joy----Until you guessed it, the RAIN, came in and mercilessly beat that snow down to an inch and a half. I watched that 5 inch snow on the road and sidewalk----that I had wanted to be plowed SO bad so I could go and enjoy my precious jebwalk and look at plowed piles of snow while blasting my Christian music on my CD headphones-------get MELTED to zilch on the roads and sidewalks, by a relentless moderate rain that would NOT let up one little bit. I could not help myself------I sobbed as though my entire family had died (God forbid)-----because I indeed could see exactly all too well what kind of winter we will have this season--what kind of winter we are indeed already having, and will continue to experience this very upcoming weekend. We'll take a ride on the Red/Green Line, and it will be perfectly free folks. This will be a fast ride, and this Line always runs when there is a storm here in the Mid Atlantic. It will be speedy-----and everyone living in the MA always gets a free ticket. On certain special occasions, people in the Northeastern Corridor are also treated to free tickets on the Red/Green Line.
The destination is starkly obvious.
The destination is green grass and brown soil, saturated with rainwater. Watch your step----there will be puddles. I already have a hole in my right shoe from too many jebwalks lol. Watch the muddy ground too. You need to be careful as you gingerly step from this train.
We hope you enjoyed the ride-----And try to have a nice day. Occasional showers are forecast. You'll only need one thin coat. Highs in the 40s are on tap-----enjoy the thaw. It won't take long to thaw out.
Welcome to the Mid Atlantic.
-Mid Atlantic JEB..........IN the Mid Atlantic for LIFE.
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