ECMWF VERY INTERESTING for Southland/Southeast in MR...

[Stormsfury]

Just noticed that the 1024 mb high in the Mid-Atlantic (Day 7) would serve to continue to keep cold air in the Carolinas, and although, the 850mb temperatures warm across the lower South Carolina region, CAD may keep the moisture as freezing/frozen depending on the depth of the colder SFC air.

SF

probably...since the models dont handle it that well...but with 850 temps above 0C and impossible to tell the depth of the cold (or below freezing) layer theres no way to tell precip type.

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

but with 850 temps of only +2C across southeast SC theres a good chance that P-type would probably be FRZRA or sleet. but is really hard to say based on the low-resolution EC and the long range. were talking about 7 days out here.

And given my experience, the ECMWF has a slight warm bias in the MR (like during the PDS of 2003, the temperatures trended colder and colder as we neared the event ... and also, according to the EC, the moisture initially has to overcome some VERY dry air in the Southeast beforehand ... so evapo cooling will play some role as well ...

SF

[FLguy]

Watch it guys.

PAC JET is a 6-letter very very very bad word.




-JEB

and i have no idea why you say that its "high time to say no to el nino" if it wasnt for the el nino last winter you wouldint have had half as much snow as you did. so you may want to seriously consider changing that to something more like

"its high time to say YES to El Nino"

[Anonymous]

Watch it guys.

PAC JET is a 6-letter very very very bad word.




-JEB

and i have no idea why you say that its "high time to say no to el nino" if it wasnt for the el nino last winter you wouldint have had half as much snow as you did. so you may want to seriously consider changing that to something more like

"its high time to say YES to El Nino"

You got it, FLguy!!!

I will change that RIGHT NOW!!!

Thanks for the lesson; I will definately take it under permanent advisement!



-JEB

[FLguy]

Just noticed that the 1024 mb high in the Mid-Atlantic (Day 7) would serve to continue to keep cold air in the Carolinas, and although, the 850mb temperatures warm across the lower South Carolina region, CAD may keep the moisture as freezing/frozen depending on the depth of the colder SFC air.

SF

probably...since the models dont handle it that well...but with 850 temps above 0C and impossible to tell the depth of the cold (or below freezing) layer theres no way to tell precip type.

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

but with 850 temps of only +2C across southeast SC theres a good chance that P-type would probably be FRZRA or sleet. but is really hard to say based on the low-resolution EC and the long range. were talking about 7 days out here.

And given my experience, the ECMWF has a slight warm bias in the MR (like during the PDS of 2003, the temperatures trended colder and colder as we neared the event ... and also, according to the EC, the moisture initially has to overcome some VERY dry air in the Southeast beforehand ... so evapo cooling will play some role as well ...

SF

which should imply at least a period of mixed precip in most area to start and where soundings are isothermally near 0C thru a deep layer...snow may be favored initially

but we must also remember the origin of this system...its loaded with moisture and going to put down a hell of alot of precipitation north of its track but with that comes warm air. the warm advection from a system like this can wreak havoc with precipitation types in the face of a weak ageostrophic component moreso than a coastal system in the mid-atlantic or northeast would. so while i think mixed precip is a good bet to start its hard to tell what goes on thereafter. if the high is stronge rthe CAD stronger and a more impressive ageostrophic component is present then its possible. and that said i dont think that coastal sections will hold the frozen precip.

but lets hold off on the speculation for now. for some reason it always seems we get caught up in this material which shgould be saved for the SR 7 days out. lets concern ourselvs moreso with the synoptic set-up to first make sure this is all possible.

yes i know i at times encourage it...lol

[Anonymous]

I have been reading this thread tonight, and I can see that the development of El Nino may well play a role in the Mid Atlantic getting more snow before this winter is over!!!!!!!

C'MON EL NINO!!!!! Help me get my precious 36 INCHES of snow in one storm here in Woodbridge, VA!!!!!!!



-SNOW BLITZ JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stormsfury]

That's right, Jeb ... UNLESS it's a 1982/1983 or a 1997-1998 (early) event, this enhances the chances of southern systems ... 1982/1983 and 1997-1998, the SBJ (and the overall pattern) was so overwhelming that there wasn't any possible way to bring down the necessary cold air, especially for the Southeast, which was plagued by many bouts of thunderstorm activity in January 1998 ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

which should imply at least a period of mixed precip in most area to start and where souindings are isothermally near 0C thru a deep layer...snow may be favored initially

but we must also remember the origin of this system...its loaded with moisture and going to put down a hell of alot of precipitation north of its track but with that comes warm air. the warm advection from a system like this can wreak havoc with precipitation types in the face of a weak ageostrophic component moreso than a coastal system in the mid-atlantic or northeast would. so while i think mixed precip is a good bet to start its hard to tell what goes on thereafter. if the high is stronge rthe CAD stronger and a more impressive ageostrophic component is present then its possible. and that said i dont think that coastal sections will hold the frozen precip.

but lets hold off on the speculation for now. for some reason it always seems we get caught up in this material which shgould be saved for the SR 7 days out. lets concern ourselvs moreso with the synoptic set-up to first make sure this is all possible.

yes i know i at times encourage it...lol

Damn, that early Saturday morning snow last Saturday has got me ready for a good storm ... LOL ... yep, we're definitely getting carried away, especially given the MR horrors this year ...

SF

[FLguy]

which should imply at least a period of mixed precip in most area to start and where souindings are isothermally near 0C thru a deep layer...snow may be favored initially

but we must also remember the origin of this system...its loaded with moisture and going to put down a hell of alot of precipitation north of its track but with that comes warm air. the warm advection from a system like this can wreak havoc with precipitation types in the face of a weak ageostrophic component moreso than a coastal system in the mid-atlantic or northeast would. so while i think mixed precip is a good bet to start its hard to tell what goes on thereafter. if the high is stronge rthe CAD stronger and a more impressive ageostrophic component is present then its possible. and that said i dont think that coastal sections will hold the frozen precip.

but lets hold off on the speculation for now. for some reason it always seems we get caught up in this material which shgould be saved for the SR 7 days out. lets concern ourselvs moreso with the synoptic set-up to first make sure this is all possible.

yes i know i at times encourage it...lol

Damn, that early Saturday morning snow last Saturday has got me ready for a good storm ... LOL ... yep, we're definitely getting carried away, especially given the MR horrors this year ...

SF

MR horrors...its more like the firey pits of hell for us.

[Anonymous]

Too bad it's not the frozen pits of heck full of 3 feet of wind-driven snow.
LOL LOL LOL Just Kidding guys

I just want my 36 inches of snow so bad LOL



-JEB

[Chris the Weather Man]

That's right, Jeb ... UNLESS it's a 1982/1983 or a 1997-1998 (early) event, this enhances the chances of southern systems ... 1982/1983 and 1997-1998, the SBJ (and the overall pattern) was so overwhelming that there wasn't any possible way to bring down the necessary cold air, especially for the Southeast, which was plagued by many bouts of thunderstorm activity in January 1998 ...

SF

I do not want that! Although, I would take another Blizzard of 1983......

[Stormsfury]

MR horrors...its more like the firey pits of hell for us.

...hahaha...Ah yeah, sounds like the week I'm having ...

SF

[Chris the Weather Man]

1983 Blizzard was Amazing, My pa said that his area got 22 inches of snow in 24 hours!

[Anonymous]

The Blizzard of 1983.

I remember the Blizzard of 1983. February 11, 1983.

That morning the snow began, we were 19 degrees.

Such a sweet storm, it dropped our temps to 11 degrees by 5pm; we received 17 inches of snow. I was digging snow for days. My neighbors were paying me to dig snow; I could hardly believe I was getting paid to have so much fun!!! I made close to 400 dollars in a week.

-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!