As you can see, I have the Ohio valley and parts of the MA in pink...indicating that this forecast may go either way! Stay tuned!
My first call! 1-15-04 530pm
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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therock1811
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My first call! 1-15-04 530pm
As you can see, I have the Ohio valley and parts of the MA in pink...indicating that this forecast may go either way! Stay tuned!
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verycoolnin
- Tropical Storm
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- Location: yorktown, va
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FLguy
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Right now I think its mainly a mid-Atlantic event…but there is still a chance that something tries to come up. There will be one piece of energy which goes out to sea this weekend and affects MAINLY the MID ATLANTIC states with snow and ice. The second event **IF** there is to be one depends on the following things:
1) The trough in the northern branch splits with one piece going out while a second is left behind.
2) If the trough splitting occurs…the front running piece of energy MUST be WEAKER and the second piece must be stronger in order for it to dig in instead of just be carried east. In the case that the trough split does occur but the front running piece of energy is stronger the jet will be stronger so the piece which is coming in behind is just carried east southeast without digging.
3) The front running piece of STJ s/w energy which comes out this weekend must be weaker with a stronger s/w lagging back.
With whats left of the PV exiting North America at 84hrs the fait of the phasing potential for the first part of next week will depend on which PJ s/w is stronger. If the split occurs and it’s the front running energy…the s/w that gets left behind is weaker and will not be able to dig. So all in all yes this is a very complicated pattern.
If the trough split occurs…the front running PJ s/w is WEAKER with the energy stronger further back there is a MUCH better chance for the s/w to dig…and only some of the STJ s/w energy comes out with the first system with a stronger s/w hanging back then its more likely that phasing will occur but even still this is NO GUARANTEE. And I would not get my hopes up either given the complexity of the pattern.
18z ETA 500mb valid 06z 1/19:
As you can see the ETA is only taking some of the STJ energy out and keeps a stronger more amplified s/w further back to the west which would imply that the initial system this weekend is weaker. That said the ETA has NO signs of the trough splitting and bundles all the energy into one package which feeds in with the PV exiting Newfoundland. In this situation the jet would be too strong and NO PHASING would occur.
Now if we look at the 18z run of the GFS valid at the same time:
Similar to the ETA…the GFS is stronger further back with the STJ s/w energy and DOES have the trough splitting in the PJ. However because it puts too much emphasis on the front running piece of PJ s/w energy (notice the closed ---- double contoured (510 DM) H5 low entering New England) the …the piece behind is weaker and NOT allowed to dig and phase.
And we notice that by 1/20 the piece of the PJ s/w left behind is weaker and just heads out harmlessly w/o any digging or phasing. The piece of STJ energy hanging back is well out to sea and the threat to the east coast is negated.
What may however be more important is the STJ energy entering the western US at 120hrs. Notice also that the PV is becoming re-established in a more climatologically normal position across the Davis Strait between BI and Greenland.
This is significant of a pattern which is becoming MORE FAVORABLE for the prospects of a major east coast snow event down the road. And yes that STJ energy entering the western US may have to be watched for trouble down the road.
1) The trough in the northern branch splits with one piece going out while a second is left behind.
2) If the trough splitting occurs…the front running piece of energy MUST be WEAKER and the second piece must be stronger in order for it to dig in instead of just be carried east. In the case that the trough split does occur but the front running piece of energy is stronger the jet will be stronger so the piece which is coming in behind is just carried east southeast without digging.
3) The front running piece of STJ s/w energy which comes out this weekend must be weaker with a stronger s/w lagging back.
With whats left of the PV exiting North America at 84hrs the fait of the phasing potential for the first part of next week will depend on which PJ s/w is stronger. If the split occurs and it’s the front running energy…the s/w that gets left behind is weaker and will not be able to dig. So all in all yes this is a very complicated pattern.
If the trough split occurs…the front running PJ s/w is WEAKER with the energy stronger further back there is a MUCH better chance for the s/w to dig…and only some of the STJ s/w energy comes out with the first system with a stronger s/w hanging back then its more likely that phasing will occur but even still this is NO GUARANTEE. And I would not get my hopes up either given the complexity of the pattern.
18z ETA 500mb valid 06z 1/19:
As you can see the ETA is only taking some of the STJ energy out and keeps a stronger more amplified s/w further back to the west which would imply that the initial system this weekend is weaker. That said the ETA has NO signs of the trough splitting and bundles all the energy into one package which feeds in with the PV exiting Newfoundland. In this situation the jet would be too strong and NO PHASING would occur.
Now if we look at the 18z run of the GFS valid at the same time:
Similar to the ETA…the GFS is stronger further back with the STJ s/w energy and DOES have the trough splitting in the PJ. However because it puts too much emphasis on the front running piece of PJ s/w energy (notice the closed ---- double contoured (510 DM) H5 low entering New England) the …the piece behind is weaker and NOT allowed to dig and phase.
And we notice that by 1/20 the piece of the PJ s/w left behind is weaker and just heads out harmlessly w/o any digging or phasing. The piece of STJ energy hanging back is well out to sea and the threat to the east coast is negated.
What may however be more important is the STJ energy entering the western US at 120hrs. Notice also that the PV is becoming re-established in a more climatologically normal position across the Davis Strait between BI and Greenland.
This is significant of a pattern which is becoming MORE FAVORABLE for the prospects of a major east coast snow event down the road. And yes that STJ energy entering the western US may have to be watched for trouble down the road.
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verycoolnin
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http://www.geocities.com/verycoolnin/ alright, I went bust with the last system... lets see how I do with this one.
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