HELLO! ... Day 8-10 3 day average EURO!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
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therock1811
- Category 5
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- Location: Kentucky
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You know what's interesting is how the GFS cannot handle this sort of thing at all (it always has trouble with it). The Euro is hinting at it, and I think the narrow-minded Meteorologists who only look at the GFS will be blindsided by the changes that are going to occur in that timeframe for that model as we get closer.
Chances are if it crosses the border, the GFS will not see it until about 72 hours or less away. The Euro and UKMet will see it coming a little further away.
This may catch the people in the Midwest off guard since the long range (GFS only) forecasts that are available to the public on sites like accuweather and weather.com haven't a single hint at this thing.
Once it starts hammering down and the blocking goes on, late January to early February may be a repeat of 1996 or 1994.
At the very worse it could be an 1985 repeat but I don't to go that far and jinx it.
Chances are if it crosses the border, the GFS will not see it until about 72 hours or less away. The Euro and UKMet will see it coming a little further away.
This may catch the people in the Midwest off guard since the long range (GFS only) forecasts that are available to the public on sites like accuweather and weather.com haven't a single hint at this thing.
Once it starts hammering down and the blocking goes on, late January to early February may be a repeat of 1996 or 1994.
At the very worse it could be an 1985 repeat but I don't to go that far and jinx it.
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Chris the Weather Man
- Category 2
- Posts: 746
- Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:49 pm
- Location: NJ
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Anonymous
I WANT IT!!! I WANT THAT EXTREME COLD!!! BRING IT!! BRING IT!!! YEAH!!! I WANT A HIGH OF 2 DEGREES AND ANOTHER LOW OF -14, ONLY THIS TIME I WANT THE TEMPS 15 DEGREES COLDER!!!! I WANT 30 TO 50 MPH WINDS TOO!!!!! I LOVE CROSS-POLAR FLOW!!! BRING IT!!! BRING IT!!!! I WANT KILLING COLD SO SEVERE, IT BREAKS ALL THE EXISTING RECORDS FOR VIRGINIA, AND THOSE TEMPS OCCUR RIGHT IN DALE CITY WHERE I LIVE!!!!!
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-SIBERIAN COLD EXPRESS JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-SIBERIAN COLD EXPRESS JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Chris the Weather Man
- Category 2
- Posts: 746
- Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:49 pm
- Location: NJ
OH MAN JEB! YOU WANT THAT COLD! EH?! LOLJeb wrote:I WANT IT!!! I WANT THAT EXTREME COLD!!! BRING IT!! BRING IT!!! YEAH!!! I WANT A HIGH OF 2 DEGREES AND ANOTHER LOW OF -14, ONLY THIS TIME I WANT THE TEMPS 15 DEGREES COLDER!!!! I WANT 30 TO 50 MPH WINDS TOO!!!!! I LOVE CROSS-POLAR FLOW!!! BRING IT!!! BRING IT!!!! I WANT KILLING COLD SO SEVERE, IT BREAKS ALL THE EXISTING RECORDS FOR VIRGINIA, AND THOSE TEMPS OCCUR RIGHT IN DALE CITY WHERE I LIVE!!!!!
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-SIBERIAN COLD EXPRESS JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Anonymous
Chris the Weather Man wrote:OH MAN JEB! YOU WANT THAT COLD! EH?! LOLJeb wrote:I WANT IT!!! I WANT THAT EXTREME COLD!!! BRING IT!! BRING IT!!! YEAH!!! I WANT A HIGH OF 2 DEGREES AND ANOTHER LOW OF -14, ONLY THIS TIME I WANT THE TEMPS 15 DEGREES COLDER!!!! I WANT 30 TO 50 MPH WINDS TOO!!!!! I LOVE CROSS-POLAR FLOW!!! BRING IT!!! BRING IT!!!! I WANT KILLING COLD SO SEVERE, IT BREAKS ALL THE EXISTING RECORDS FOR VIRGINIA, AND THOSE TEMPS OCCUR RIGHT IN DALE CITY WHERE I LIVE!!!!!
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-SIBERIAN COLD EXPRESS JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yep!!!
I definately want it THAT COLD in Woodbridge/Dale City where I live!!!
In Winter:
1) It can NEVER BE TOO COLD FOR JEB.
2) There is NEVER TOO MUCH SNOW.
3) I love zero-visibility, whiteout 50mph blowing and drifting snow conditions.
4) I love to shovel snow, and for the winds to blow and drift the snow back over all my work so I then get to shovel it all over again.
5) I love snow plows because as they plow my street, they will plow me back into my driveway and I then enjoy the privilege of digging out from the snow all over again.
6) Enjoy the last five rules over and over and over and over and over again, all winter long.
-SIBERIAN CROSS POLAR BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Wannabewxman79
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 181
- Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:53 pm
- Location: Riegelwood, NC (20 miles W of Wilmington)
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
Yes, there's cross-polar flow, and yes, there's a +PNA, -NAO pattern ...
Anyone notice the s/w in the SW? Right now, the ECMWF (among other globals want to hold back that energy ... errorenously IMHO, and the 1st s/w isn't the one to watch (unless you're in NC/VA, and MAYBE SC for the teaser ...) but this HAS possible implications for a decent storm ... first, the positioning of the PV (Hudson Bay Vortex) and MOST of the motherlode of cold air is ON our side of the pole.
Shear speculation of the upcoming pattern would lead me to believe that storminess across the USA is about to pick up and although the SFC details on the GFS are about as useful as an attacking anklebiter to a mail carrier, the GFS's overall depiction is a return to a more active pattern, and this time, it appears that we'll have some DECENT cold air to work with. And the AVERAGE would imply that farther South would get into the act ... probably with good OVERRUNNING and potential for ice ... but the overall ECMWF setup looks VERY NICE for the East.
Now the small print:
(Disclaimer: Maps and depictions are subject to change without warning, and consequences may vary ...
)
SF
Anyone notice the s/w in the SW? Right now, the ECMWF (among other globals want to hold back that energy ... errorenously IMHO, and the 1st s/w isn't the one to watch (unless you're in NC/VA, and MAYBE SC for the teaser ...) but this HAS possible implications for a decent storm ... first, the positioning of the PV (Hudson Bay Vortex) and MOST of the motherlode of cold air is ON our side of the pole.
Shear speculation of the upcoming pattern would lead me to believe that storminess across the USA is about to pick up and although the SFC details on the GFS are about as useful as an attacking anklebiter to a mail carrier, the GFS's overall depiction is a return to a more active pattern, and this time, it appears that we'll have some DECENT cold air to work with. And the AVERAGE would imply that farther South would get into the act ... probably with good OVERRUNNING and potential for ice ... but the overall ECMWF setup looks VERY NICE for the East.
Now the small print:
(Disclaimer: Maps and depictions are subject to change without warning, and consequences may vary ...
)
SF
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
JQ Public wrote:Valkhorn wrote:Can anyone say Cross Polar Flow?
Cross Polar Flow...ok now what does it mean? Cold from siberia will "cross the pole" and come down thru canada?
Cross-Polar Flow is just that ... it's air crossing over the North Pole and straight down into Canada (and sometimes into the US under the right conditions, and the ECMWF average appears to have just that...)
Back in January 1985, such an event occurred and this was an exceptionally cold outbreak ...
Go HERE for details of the January 21st, 1985 Arctic Outbreak and Cross-Polar Flow ... and the list of records set across the Southeast ...
SF
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Anonymous
Stormsfury wrote:JQ Public wrote:Valkhorn wrote:Can anyone say Cross Polar Flow?
Cross Polar Flow...ok now what does it mean? Cold from siberia will "cross the pole" and come down thru canada?
Cross-Polar Flow is just that ... it's air crossing over the North Pole and straight down into Canada (and sometimes into the US under the right conditions, and the ECMWF average appears to have just that...)
Back in January 1985, such an event occurred and this was an exceptionally cold outbreak ...
Go HERE for details of the January 21st, 1985 Arctic Outbreak and Cross-Polar Flow ... and the list of records set across the Southeast ...
SF
The Jan 21 1985 Cross Polar Outbreak smashed into N VA near Jan 21, 1985 with an overnight 2 inches of snow. The temps fell overnight to -2 degrees with 2 inches of snow. That afternoon our high struggled to reach 2 degrees above zero. The following night, we tobogganed downward to -14 degrees.
With this next Cross Polar Outbreak, I would like to experience -10 as a high temperature in Woodbridge, with an overnight low of -24 degrees, with strong winds into the bargain.
I want REAL COLD in here!!! Let's break some records!!!!!
-SIBERIAN CROSS POLAR BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Anonymous
I'm sorry, but I need to ask a question-I'm pretty color blind (ok, totally color blind!!) does this give the central Plains some cold air?? It seems to me that the cold air will go East of us again but I have trouple reading color maps!! Our mets here are pretty much hinting at temps in the 40's 50's for the next 10-15 days-thanks in advance!!
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