Upton Being a bit Conservative?

[mathias1979]

Granted, I don't have much experience with clippers, but I just think Upton is being a tad conservative. They're calling for 2-4" in NYC. Everything I've seen (ETA, GFS, MM5) see points to about 0.20-0.25" QPF for NYC. With temperatures down around 15F, I'd have to think that's easily a 20:1 ratio, wouldn't even be surprised to see 25:1. Right there you've got yourself an easy 4-6". I'm still thinking 3-6" for the city. North of the city up into my area, QPF generally 0.10"-0.20". Still, with a ratio approaching 25:1, that's 2-4". They've got 1-3". Maybe I'm just nitpicking at this point, but that would bump us up to advisory criteria. I just think a 3-6" in the city with 2-4" in their northern zones makes more sense. That's my call anyway. Any thoughts?

-Matt

[li-mike]

I agree with your thoughts, plus OKX is not even putting into play what happens when this little bomb gets off the coast. Most if not all of Ern LI will trump whatever the city gets by another 3 inches and it is possible that the usually left out Mountauk will get the biggest hit here although measuring snow out there is a nightmare with the drifting and blowing snow. Somewhere on ERN LI => the Cape will get 7-8 Inches out of this.

Mike

[JCT777]

Mathias - I agree with your numbers. 3 to 6 in NYC, a little less up in your area (2 to 4).