*sigh*......summer's OVER, back to reality!

[azsnowman]

After 10 days of above normal, near record, record tying weather, it's back to reality....it's a GOOD thing, the tulips, daffy dils, etc, etc we're thinkin', "Hey...it's SPRING, let's BLOOM!" Back to snow shovels, snow blowers and long johns, guess I should put the shorts, flip flops and tee shirts away again


AFDFLG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED JAN 14 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE MOGOLLON
RIM EASTWARD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO. CLOUD SHIELD OVER
NRN MEXICO AND SRN AZ THIS MORNING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND
WOULD EXPECT THIS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE VIRGA SHOWERS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BEST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO THE NWRN PORTIONS.
HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES BY FRIDAY AS THE
MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

COMPACT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EPAC
YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER SERN CALIF AND IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE. ANOTHER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER NRN MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS PHASING TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AND DRAWING THIS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ERN HALF OF AZ. AN EVEN
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OVERNIGHT
AND DROP SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO. THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR WEST AND
SOUTH TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS OR OROGRAPHIC
COMPONENT OVER NRN AZ. ALTHOUGH THE DYAMICS AND OROGRAPHICS
ARE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM...LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MICROPHYSICS ARE POSITIVE FACTORS.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY
MODERATE PCPN AMOUNTS.

.EXTENDED...RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. DB
&&



Dennis

[StormCrazyIowan]

Shorts? Flip flops? Tee-shirts? I'm coming over!! No actually, I can't complain much!! It really hasn't been all that cold (with the exception of a few days)! Far as I'm concerned, it can stay that way!! Christmas is over, I had a good snow, I got sick, I WANT SPRING!

[azsnowman]

I know.....I've been SPOILED by this nice weather, when we were in Sedona it was like "Man....do we HAVE to go back home to the cold, snow etc.?" Honestly, I've been wearing shorts in the daytime here, I even BBQ'D ribs last evening while wearing shorts and drinkin' a ICE, COLD MGD!

Dennis

[StormCrazyIowan]

And I wasn't over for dinner?! *sniffle*

What I wouldn't give for a good grillin'!! Or just to be back outdoors, I hate being crammed in a house all winter!!

Soon.....soon!!

[Stephanie]

Actually, I'm glad to read that report for your area Dennis. I was worried that you were going to have a repeat of last year where you had you one shot of snow and cold and that was it.

After this next week or so, I think I'll end up strangling Punxatawny Phil if he says 6 more weeks of winter!!!

[JCT777]

Hope you get a lot of snow in the coming days, Dennis. Enjoy!