NWS Sterling VA AFD, update mentioning potential coastal s..

[Cheesy_Poofs]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 130129
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
830 PM EST MON JAN 12 2003

.DISCUSSION...
TWO STORMS TO MONITOR IN THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST...

FOR THE SHORT TERM. CLOUDS ON THE DECREASE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS
LOOK FINE. TOMORROW SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN PARTLY
CLOUDY MOVES IN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT ROLLS THROUGH.

AFTER CHECKING THE TENDS AND THE LATEST 12Z AND 18Z GFS VERSUS LAST
NIGHTS LONG RANGE 00Z GFS...DID SOME ADJUSTING TO THE FORECAST. TWO
STORMS TO MONITOR OVER THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

FIRST UP IS A CLIPPER THAT WILL BE BLASTING QUICKLY DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ETA AND GFS BOTH IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND POSITION
WHICH IS SOMEWHAT SURPRISING WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE WED EVENING THRU ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. PATH OF THE CLIPPER GOES RIGHT DOWN THE POTOMAC...SO
MARYLAND HAS A GOOD SHOT AT A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW. MOST OF THE
TIME...LOCATIONS ALONG THE PATH OF THE CLIPPER GET SNOW...WHILE
SOUTH OF THE PATH GETS MUCH LESS. SO WILL HAVE THE GRADIENT RUN NE
TO SW. WILL KEEP JUST UNDER LIKELY IN THE NE SINCE THE TREND HAS
BEEN MORE NORTH AND MUCH MORE OF A NORTHERLY TRACK WILL START
LIMITING OUR CHANCE OF SNOW. SW WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS. AT THIS
POINT LOOKS LIKE DC...MARYLAND...AND VA AND WV COUNTIES CLOSE TO THE
POTOMAC GET ONE TO THREE WHILE FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO VA AND WV GET
AN INCH OR LESS. ALSO HAVE IT AS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. ALWAYS A THREAT SOUTH OF THE LOW PATH...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
EVENING START TIME.

BY THURSDAY THE STORM IS OUT TO SEA. MAY STILL BE AFFECTING
NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE AROUND SUNRISE...BUT MAINLY
ALL PRECIP IS OUT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FLOWS IN THURSDAY WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN.

THAT COLD CENTRAL CANADIAN HIGH VERY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE
STATES AND IS CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THEN.
PAST THAT GETS A BIT MORE DICEY.

BY THE TIME SUNDAY AND MONDAY ROLL AROUND THINGS START TO LOOK
INTERESTING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE GULF COAST. GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND
THE TIME OF YEAR THAT WE ARE IN...THE SET UP AT THE MOMENT LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR A COASTAL SNOW STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 18Z GFS
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE THAN THE OLD 00Z DID. THE OLD GFS HAD THE
STORM SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH AND A NON FACTOR...WHILE THE NEWER RUN
FOLLOWS A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL ROUTE AND HAS THE STORM AROUND NEW
ORLEANS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEWER RUN ALSO HAS A WEAKER AND
SLOWER COMPETING NORTHERN STREAM LOW. ALSO HAS A WEST COAST RIDGE
AND A 50N/50W LOW WHICH ARE FAVORABLE TELECONNECTIONS FOR COASTAL
STORMS.

THEN AGAIN...DAY 7 IS CERTAINLY A LONG WAY FROM NOW. IF THE NORTHERN
STREAM REVERTS TO BEING THE DOMINATING STREAM THEN THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT WITH THE CLIPPER FLOWING ALONG IN THAT...AT
THE EXPENSE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM. SOMETHING TO WATCH NONE
THE LESS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
STRONG

[WXBUFFJIM]

It beats monitoring nothing at all. Good to hear from you Jassi. It was a cold one in central Maryland this past weekend. Here in Essex, 7 degrees Saturday morning, 21 Saturday afternoon, 7 Sunday morning, 32 Sunday afternoon. It was 30 this morning, and the high is right now at 47 degrees at 9 pm.

Some inland rivers just away from the Chesapeake Bay froze over in thin ice over the weekend. The ice is basically gone for the time being. Bay temp at Thomas Point Light was 34 yesterday. It's 36 now.

The clipper Wednesday evening into Thursday morning looks very minor at this point. But any snow cover will enhance the cold Thursday night through Friday. Then we'll focus on Sunday into Monday with a possible coastal storm setup. Conditions favor it. But we're 7 days out, so plenty of time to monitor this for newer trends or changes.

Jim

[Anonymous]

With regard to the clipper tracking along the Potomac River, I live 4 miles from the Potomac River.

Hmmmmmmm.............................


I will go with 3 to 6 flurries for now.

Concerning snow, Caution is always my game, and I'll be darned if I'm gonna stop playing it now. Caution always pays.



-JEB

[WeatherGQ]

It beats monitoring nothing at all. Good to hear from you Jassi. It was a cold one in central Maryland this past weekend. Here in Essex, 7 degrees Saturday morning, 21 Saturday afternoon, 7 Sunday morning, 32 Sunday afternoon. It was 30 this morning, and the high is right now at 47 degrees at 9 pm.

Some inland rivers just away from the Chesapeake Bay froze over in thin ice over the weekend. The ice is basically gone for the time being. Bay temp at Thomas Point Light was 34 yesterday. It's 36 now.

The clipper Wednesday evening into Thursday morning looks very minor at this point. But any snow cover will enhance the cold Thursday night through Friday. Then we'll focus on Sunday into Monday with a possible coastal storm setup. Conditions favor it. But we're 7 days out, so plenty of time to monitor this for newer trends or changes.

Jim

Going to school in CCBC I see those rivers all the time and know what you are talking about. Its cool to see those rivers freeze.