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the 12z runs are at 144 hours ----
Canadian ... sprawling 1024 mb high over the Southeastern States with a 1011mb low developing in the GOM ...
UKMET ... depicting a damming scenario, and prime conditions for wintry conditions across the Southeast ...
GFS ... has a northern stream s/w well away from the southern stream s/w and out ahead ... absolutely NO chance of phasing and NO high to lock down the cold, hence, the very warm 850mb temperature readings.
ECMWF ... has a dual low structure with a weak 1006 mb low well off the Southeast Coast, and another secondary low in the GOM (1008mb) ... generally a decent setup for wintry weather in the Southeast, but 850mb temperatures are surprisingly fairly warm despite the long fetch of northerly winds from the NE down into the NE GOM around the 2nd low ... the 1034 mb is too far north and west to have any real effect on wedging down some cold air on this run, and also, the EC run as is gives no chance for phasing to occur.
EURO Day 7 MSLP
EURO Day 7 850mb Temperatures ...
NOGAPS ... rather robust in development in the GOM and spreading overrunning moisture across the GOM states and into the Southeast ... and the 850mb 0ºC line stratles through NC .. not bad for no REAL high pressure system depicted on this run ...
Obviously, the 12z globals are much as odds in details with the northern stream features, and less so tonight with the southern stream features....
SF