At 180 hours the GFS Says The Cold is Leaving...

[donsutherland1]

...winter must therefore be over.

Stop! Arrêt! Anschlag! ¡Parada!

Don't let a temporary respite lull you into an embarrassing ambush from Old Man Winter that should be avoided.

It's only January 12. Pattern fluctuations occur several times each winter. There's plenty of time for more winter weather even after the current cold pattern finally breaks.

Climatological odds--not to mention analogs--strongly favor at least several additional episodes of cold and snow.

Yes, forecasts can be wrong--and I've certainly eaten my share of crow (fortunately a trip to Hong Kong a few years ago prepared me for this delicacy that I would still prefer to avoid). Nevertheless, one highly likely error that can and should be avoided is that of proclaiming the death of winter before winter is anywhere close to being finished.

Think of how many times Winter 2003-04 has been written off already. Let's take a look at four examples here--and one can find similar outbreaks of panic in many other weather forums--and what later transpired:

<i>1. Still think the Northeast is going to have an early winter? As of today...I don't think so.</i>

<i>2. It's been in the 70's and 80s for most of October and november and I don't see anything to change the pattern here in the East, at least not more than a one or 2 day cooldown toward normal. Does' anyone really have hope for a cold snowy day in December?? How about a January? I'm beginning to think we got our nice winter last year, and now its back to the extreme warmth of the 90's (for the most part).</i>

Ten to twelve days later a record early-season blizzard buried Southeastern New York and New England under more than a foot of snow.

<i>3. Tomorrow we are forecast to see highs in the mid to upper 50s followed by lows in the low 40s... This is the pattern we can expect to see most of January and February. In February it will get milder as the month progresses. I believe that January will actually turn out no chillier than December was in N VA. It could even be a little milder.</i>

<i>4. It's over. I give up. I know it's only December 31, but so many people are saying that this winter will be nothing but sh-t.</i>

Six to nine days later, a major pattern change occurred. In this pattern, which is still ongoing, Arctic air sent readings in Boston to -3F, Providence -1F, New York City 1F, and +8 at Washington, DC. A fresh surge of bitter air is imminent.

These examples were taken to illustrate the point that one should do one's best to avoid the sometimes great temptation to pronounce the death of winter when winter may well be resting but far from over.

All said, once this cold pattern breaks, the milder pattern is likely to be temporary. Winter will almost certainly return.

Vive l'hiver 2003-04!

[JCT777]

Great post, Don. And by milder, are we talking temps much above normal - or simply temps with 5 degrees of normal? "Milder" and "mild" are two different things. Temps within 5 degrees of normal in my area are still cold enough to be considered wintry, and could still allow for snow.

[donsutherland1]

John,

The heading was used for rhetorical purposes, only. There is a trend toward milder weather but nothing resembling much above normal warmth. I still believe the overall pattern will last until around 1/25 before it breaks for a time.

[JCT777]

Thanks for clearing that up, Don. I agree.

[Stephanie]

We usually go through a "January thaw". It'll be enough of a tease for me to say, "okay, bring on Spring!!".

[Valkhorn]

Why have the blinders on and only look at the GFS? That's meteorological suicide.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Why have the blinders on and only look at the GFS? That's meteorological suicide.

Good Point!