12Z GFS prompts VA Winter Screw Watch

Scott_inVA · #1 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 11:35 am

First, a serious note...IMO NWS min/max Th/Fr are overcooked. I ranted in our email Update last night that progged Tmins and max will come down. They have. B'burg has lowered Friday Tmax's one cat and that is still too high. Curiously, they probably are too high Th/Fr and too LOW Sat/Sun.

While generally on board for 3-5" along eastern slopes of Apps into C VA, the 12Z GFS pretty chokes it out in VA. Hence, a GFS induced Winter Screw Watch will be posted if the 0Z trends the same. Not much 7H RH and very limited QPF in VA... I am not sold on this (apparently NCEP isn't either).

Scott

JCT777 · #2 Postby **JCT777** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 11:44 am

I will be surprised if the 12z ETA and 12z GFS depiction of a further north system verifies. Thus I believe the storm will be further south than these model runs depict, and a little stronger.

Suzi Q · #3 Postby **Suzi Q** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 11:58 am

Further south? Should this Houston snow goose start honking again?
HONK HONK HONK

#4 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 12:11 pm

eb4480 wrote:Further south? Should this Houston snow goose start honking again?
HONK HONK HONK

I don't know if the honks are in order yet, but we are already setting up for a wet and later in the week possibily cold rain at a minimum. Look MW and SW(like MX) on the radar and you will see. Taking a much closer look at the models this evening to see if there is anything to honk about in our area!

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 2:22 pm

Winter Screw Watch!

ROFLMBO!!!!!!!! ROFLMBO!!!!!!!!!

-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

wrkh99 · #6 Postby **wrkh99** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:20 pm

Props to Buckeye at wwwb for ths pic

JCT777 · #7 Postby **JCT777** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:29 pm

By further south, I was referring to the Wednesday/Thursday event for the midwest/Northeast. A track as far north as some of the 12z models indicate would rip the storm to shreds, and I would think the storm will travel along a more favorable route ala the 0z runs.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 4:00 pm

wrkh99 wrote:

Props to Buckeye at wwwb for ths pic

Nice map!

ROFL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-JEB

Scott_inVA · #9 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 4:41 pm

Jeb wrote:
wrkh99 wrote:

Props to Buckeye at wwwb for ths pic

EXCELLENT!

Buckeye, I like this map however that west-east screw into VA needs to go south... that way you can make an actual Screw Watch Box Area. I think that would be priceless.

However, we shouldn't do that until an official Winter Screw Warning is issued. At this time we only need an SPS which of course is a Screwed Potentiality Statement.

Just for everyone unaware, here's the criteria:

WS WATCH: Conditions are favorable for a given locale to get screwed out of a winter storm. Storm was previously progged to produce 3+ inches, which now appears in serious jeopardy. Typically, a WS WATCH is issued 36 hours before the potential screw job; this is primarily done to caution people against rushing out to buy unnecessary milk and bread.

WS WARNING: Warned area *now* getting screwed out of a progged winter storm, or, the screw job is eminent. Those not currently experiencing screw job conditions should hurry plans to completion as the screw job is approaching.

Scott

wrkh99 · #10 Postby **wrkh99** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 4:46 pm

JCT777 · #11 Postby **JCT777** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 5:22 pm

Scott - LOL! SO I guess it is only a WS Watch now, but the warnings would likely go up Wednesday morning. :wink:

12Z GFS prompts VA Winter Screw Watch

12Z GFS prompts VA Winter Screw Watch

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