Winter Weather Outlook for Southern NJ

[Stephanie]

Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service

...ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ- CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA- COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA- DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ- INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ- MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD- SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD- WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ- 1154 AM EST MON JAN 12 2004
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY.

TWO THINGS ARE IMPORTANT FOR FORECASTING HOW MUCH SNOW COULD FALL WITH THIS LOW. THE FIRST IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE SECOND IS HOW FAST THE LOW CAN PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

IF THE LOW MOVES AS FORECAST... DELAWARE, NORTHEAST MARYLAND, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW. AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH INCLUDING THE POCONOS... LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WOULD HAVE LESSER AMOUNTS....

[WXBUFFJIM]

It seems the models are backing of on snow somewhat at last check. But this maybe a one run type of deal. Snow is still expected. But the next run may come back and say yes we see over 6 inches of snow from DC over to southern Jersey including Philadelphia as opposed to a dusting or 1-3 like we're seeing now. The bottom line is whether we see significant snow or even a dusting, it will be much colder by the middle and latter part of the week. Also with the snow cover, it will likely feel even colder than it would be if there was no snow cover. The key to this snow outlook is #1 how much moisture gets pumped in from the Atlantic, #2 the track of this storm, and #3 the intensity of the storm. All of these factors will play a role in the evolution of this clipper.

Something to keep an eye on Wednesday night through Thursday with the snow, then the brutal cold snap part 2 at the same time. There may also be a chance of snow showers mixed with rain on Saturday with the next coastal system.

Jim

[hurricanedude]

how about no snow....this seems more likely than not