Forecast for the clipper 1/15

[Stormchaser16]

It does NOT look like a big deal at this point though it does have the potential to be a quick hitting heavy hitting bowling ball type clipper. Most of the snow will be oriented in a W-E manner and not a typical coastal solution manner. Due in part to a few things:

1: It is a clipper not a southern stream coastal storm
2: STRONG Pv to the north will NOT allow for a turn up the coast

Model analysis:

12Z UKMET: Todays 12Z Ukmet switched from a very suppressed system to one of the more northern models. It shows a fairly strong low centered over NVA. This would pretail the heaviest snows in PA and NJ. Most of the snow will be focused 50-100 miles north of the center of the low in this situation give or take a few miles. (And that is in general) The UKMET has an amazingly strong PV yet it is elongated so its northern solution is acceptable given the fact that the s/w should NOT get ripped apart in this case.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... hour=108hr
You can see the low slides out to sea without a turn up the coast and it bombs out fairly quickly. IMO the UKMET is a hard hit for much of the northern midatlantic and the lower NE. HOWEVER those expecting snows in central and southern VA and areas south would NOT see good snows if the UKMET were to be correct, because with clipper situations, like noted, the snows would be NORTH of the SLP center.

JMA: You will not see many people accepting this model as a main forecast tool, however i find it readily available and useful in forecasting situations. I am a supporter of this model and i utilize it in my analyses. The JMA is a similar albeit slightly weaker solution then the UKMET. The heaviest snows would likely be a tad further south, say SE PA, central PA, southern and Central Jersey. And with its solution, these areas could be in store for 3-6" +. Whereas the UKMET would imply 4-7"+.

GFS: The GFS has a good looking solution, albeit too far north. IF the s/w where this far north then the PV COULD rip it to shreds.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... hour=096hr
Slightly weaker then the UKMET, however precip plots indicate that .25-.5 inches of QPF may fall from NVA upto and around NYC.

Tonites EURO: Shows a quick hitter for the same areas that the rest do, but has the low further south. The most acceptable solution by far that i have seen. And i will discuss that later. It would set the heaviest snows up for CNJ and back into eastern and cetral PA, with snows further south and also up to and around NYC and possibly SNE as well.

Now that we have discussed that let me list some pros and cons of this storm:(start with the bad and work towards the good)

CONS:
1: NO 500 MB low, fortelling a weaker system altogether
2: The s/w MUST be further south for it to survive, which it will, however if you are in SNE this is not the best thing.
3: STRONG PV has potential to rip the s/w to shreds if it comes further north
4: VERY dry air to overcome, dewpoints fell subzero in much of the NE recently
5: It's moving at like mach speed
6: Its a clipper
7: Can NOT turn up the coast

PROS:
1: VERY cold air in place eliminates dreaded r/s line situation in the MA
2: Will allow for VERY high ratios on the orders of 15-20+ to 1, meaning .25" of QPF COULD= about 5" of snow
3: SHOULD be further south so that the PV can NOT rip it apart

I think it would make sense for the low to ride the arctic front. Should be right around the -10C thermal line and will be on a w-e trajectory and then head harmlessly out to sea. This situation would however provide for a decent quick hitting but heavy snow for areas in the N midatlantic up to and around NYC. This is NOT a major event although as the system is rolling through conditions could deteoriate RAPIDLY with a STRONG pressure gradient that will allow for icy winds and very cold temperatures. And the snow could become quite heavy in the areas hardest hit. BUT it is VERY quick moving and the snow should last no longer then 4-8 hours. The GFS and most other models would indicate about .25-5" of QPF for hardest hit areas. With the ratios i am thinking that is about 5-10" of snow, althoguh i just DONT see that occuring. Granted some areas could see that much snow, but since there is so much dry air to overcome, it is better to stick with the real QPF output in essence about 3-6" of snow for the hardest hit areas.

If you want snowfall amounts for your area then let me know: but here are some amounts:

DCA: 2-5" (Could be higher if low tracks further south, but DCA doesnt look to be in that golen 50-100 mile northern area from the SLP)
PHL: 3-7" (In a good spot as it stands)
TTN: 3-6"
NYC: 2-4"
BOX: T-2"
PITT: 3-6" or possibly up to 7"

[JCT777]

Excellent analysis, stormchaser. Sounds good to me.

[Stormchaser16]

Thanks John.....

Could be a nice decent little event, and quite heavy snow and harsh conditions for a short amount of time. Hey we havent seen snow since early December for crying out loud, so we are snow starved here!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yep, Nice Analysis! And, I would love to see 4-8 inches of snow....

[RuggieWeather]

Stormchaser looks very like what I'm thinking also, but could be general 4 to 8 here in Delaware Valley with some spots seeing up to 10" near coastal NJ with quick coastal development and 15:1 or 20:1 Ratios.


How about them EAGLES !!!!

[Wannabewxman79]

So you are saying that we are going to get lucky and not see snow again down here in Raleigh then? Whew I don't think I can handle 2 snows in just a few days.

Panthers say: "Who are the Eagles?"

[RuggieWeather]

Hey wannabe you will get no snow in Raliegh and Who are the Eagles you say !!! How about the best team in the NFC and headed for the Superbowl !!! Panthers please Moe !!!! Get with it son !!!

[TamaquaWX]

What a snowgasm.. nice