First Outlook Map For 1-15 / 1-16 System!

[verycoolnin]

A push of cold air will come in Tuesday night bringing the jet stream south to about NC (I guess the only determining factor to this is, how far south will the jet stream go?). I'm basing this on the NWS predicted temps for Wednesday and Thursday, and a Unisys Model called MRF (I think it's a Unisys model, it's pretty dependable for long range projections). The low preasure coming in from the west will follow jet stream bringing snow into much of VA.

[verycoolnin]

All four GFS's are in agreement that this system will stay north.

[Stormsfury]

All four GFS's are in agreement that this system will stay north.

I totally disagree with the GFS's assumptions ... first of all, it's flattening out the ridge out West way too aggressively with the Next PAC system, with in turn, raises heights prematurely in the East ... and basically doesn't have any other global model support. In fact, when HPC doesn't prefer using (or really modifying GFS outputs greatly and leans towards the EC/Canadian for more consensus, that in itself states something.

KOW, excellent map and discussion.

SF

[george_r_1961]

Its starting to look more like a sleet'freezing rain event for southeastern VA. Not good. Id rather deal with a foot of snow than an inch of ice.

[Anonymous]

Its starting to look more like a sleet'freezing rain event for southeastern VA. Not good. Id rather deal with a foot of snow than an inch of ice.

Uh-Oh folks..............I have a very baaaaad feelin' about this............I think we're going to be dealing again with that Red/Green Line again, and I'm NOT referring to the Metro either............



I have a deep sinking feeling about that Red/Green Line again.........
Remember, you heard it from Jeb first....................


JEB

[verycoolnin]

I was thinking that too but then I checked the predicted atmospheric temps for Thursday and it's basically colder as you go up. So we'll likely either see snow or rain or both. Right now it looks like both but I'm hoping this system stays south.

[Skywatch_NC]

Well, the snow is now totally out of the forecast for here as of today's NWS update. :-? Oh well, I enjoyed last week's 3 inches!

Eric

[hurricanedude]

LOL Eric....we are hanging on by a thread for snow here also!!
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming cloudy. A chance of snow or mixed rain and snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming partly sunny. A chance of rain or snow. Windy. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent

[Skywatch_NC]

LOL Eric....we are hanging on by a thread for snow here also!!
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming cloudy. A chance of snow or mixed rain and snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming partly sunny. A chance of rain or snow. Windy. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent

Mike, I guess we can blame it on that bloomin' PAC jet! LOL

[Stormsfury]

Eric, that's kinda weird with RAH's AFD compared to Wilmington (ILM), NC's discussion ... and the drastic differences between the two. Wilmington, NC AFD's clearly states "things to get interesting" this weekend in regards to the weekend storm due to some uncertainties, where RAH is committed to rain.

Here's an excerpt from ILM

PARTIAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TODAY AS A RESULT OF SOME
WAA. AFTER SFC INVERSION BREAKS...THIS WAA WILL BE FELT AT THE SFC.
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND/OR DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORY TO AID THE WARM UP TODAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SLATED FOR TONIGHT. FOR TUE...CONTINUED SUNNY
SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. ANY CAA WILL BE COUNTERED BY A DECENT
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD. WILL KEEP MAXES MON AND TUE
WITHIN A CAT FROM ONE ANOTHER. SHULD SEE DECOUPLING OF WINDS TUE
NIGHT WITH A DECENT RAD NITE SETTING UP. WILL GO WITH MINS LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE. FOR WED INTO THU...CLIPPER TYPE UPPER SYSTEM DIVES SE
FROM CANADA. FOR THE ILM CWA...CFP FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR MIDDAY
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF PCPN AHAEAD OF IT. ATLANTIC
MOISTURE DOES GET ENTRAINED INTO THIS LOW...HOWEVER ITS AFFECTS WILL
BE FELT WELL NORTH OF THE FA. MSTLY CLEAR...DRY AND COOL/COLD
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THU NITE INTO SAT. THINGS TO GET INTERESTING
LATE SAT INTO SUN AS SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES ACTIVE. WILL KEEP SAT
AND SUN FCST AS IS UNTIL A FURTHER REFINEMENT BY EXTENDED MODELS
WARRANTS A CHANGE.

SF