why is it

[greg81988]

Why is it that none of teh local mets say anything in there forecast about next weekends storm?

[kpantz]

You'll only the the true snowhound mets even mentioning a storm 7 days out. I remember a few in NYC, and now that I'm in the PHL area, I've heard Guarino hint at some "computer data" that shows potential storminess every now and then, but by and large, they stay away from that.

[greg81988]

o ok thanks so when should they mention it

[kpantz]

For the storm that the D+7 EC is suggesting, don't expect to hear mention of that until at least Wednesday methinks; that wouldn't be hitting the MA/NE until the end of the weekend or beginning of the 1/19 workweek. Might turn out that the public hears nothing, since we've got quite a few model runs between now and when they need to start telling everyone about the possibility. Every 12 hours is another opportunity for the numerical models to pick up on something new at initialization and completely fizzle what we thought was going to be a "biggun."

Remember March 2001, and you'll understand the need for caution.

[greg81988]

well noaa is saying snow for friday night adn saturday will there be another storm coming late sunday night or do they have the timing of that one wrong?

[kpantz]

First...what exactly do you mean by NOAA? What office is issuing the forecast? Do you have a link?

[greg81988]

nws

[kpantz]

That much I figured

What local office? Where are you located?

[greg81988]

if you look at their models you see a big storm in teh southeast adn then head northeast it begins to spread moisture into virginia early saturday morning. adn how much snow do you think central virginia will get wednesday night adn thursday?

[greg81988]

o sorry im in the wakefield,va office; however for some reason they dont mention but teh surronding areas do adn so do their models you should take a look at them

[kpantz]

Judging by the speed of the system, I'm going to say that you're probably looking at 6-8" in the sweet spot, which may very well end up in C/N VA. That's just a guess, and unfortunately, the wife is dragging me off to bed before most of the 00Z model data rolls in. I'm up in E PA, and I'm not really expecting much more than a few inches at best.