First Outlook Map For 1-15 / 1-16 System!

[Guest]

Well here is my early idea of who will see the heaviest snows etc. I will add that areas on the southern edge in the lighter blue will have some mixed precip as well and has a greater chance then the areas on the northern Lighter bluee in the NE of seeing heavier snows. The Dark blue is who has the greatest chance of heavier snows. Still way way to early to even get into how much anyone will se at this point!

[therock1811]

Looks good!

[Stormchaser16]

GREAT map and i COMPLETELY agree. The 18Z GFS changes MOST if not ALL of VA over to RAIN, gimme a friggin break. It sticks the 850 low over PITT while the barocycloniuc zone is in KY...... does that make ANY sense? With such arctic air the 850 low will NOT be that far north of the barocyclonic zone. Thus making its temp profiles WAY off. I also think that from NVA through central NJ has the BEST chance of 6+" because the SFC low may also take an ENE trajectory once off the coast, thus allow it to be almost like a SECS. The EURO shows this well, because of the elongated PV that would allow for a SECS situation, while the GFS has a consolidated PV which keeps a MOSTLY W-E trajectory. Im inclined to go with the Euro though. AND 6+ is in by NO means out of the question especially because of the HIGH ratios(20:1+?) that would be in effect, with -10 to -18 850 thermals for much of the area from NVA through NYC. JUST .1" of QPF COULD mean 2-3" of snow. The GFS shows the area that KING has in heaviest snows with .5-.75" of QPF. WITH a 10:1 ratio that is 5-8" WITH a 20 to 1 ratio that is 10-18"..... EURO shows just about the same if not MORE then the GFS because the EURO does NOT have such a strong consolidated PV which would allow for MORE amplifcation.

[Dave C]

In SE New England we tend to get "ocean enhancement" as the NE winds come in off the ocean. With a new batch of arctic air in place this could be VERY interseting!

[Guest]

In SE New England we tend to get "ocean enhancement" as the NE winds come in off the ocean. With a new batch of arctic air in place this could be VERY interseting!

Which is part of the reason why i have that area shaded in the darker blue Dave.

Nice response Stormchaser16. Agreed.

And thanks Rock!!!

[Colin]

This is excellent...great job KOW and all the other great forecasters here!

[greg81988]

The map looks excellent the only thing is the new NOAA maps tonight at 7:30 look to spread heavy mositure farther south. You may want to expand the heavy snow a little farther south. Please dont take this as criticism just a suggestion. They also have the Low sitting right off the NC/VA coast.

[Guest]

Yes they do and thats a reflection of tonights 18z gfs run which have the higher qpf up into Michigan on over into the NE and farther north then is shown on my map which most agree and them it wont be that far north. Trust me i read the full discussion. And my map does to a degree take into account for precip farther south with that light blue which on the southern end also implies a Mixed precip threat. Anything below that will more then likely be mostly rain with some mixed precip perhaps and ending as a little snow at best!!!!

[greg81988]

hey king of the weather or anyone that reads this what is yalls aim sn so we can chat?

[verycoolnin]

alright, I'll take a crack at this

http://www.geocities.com/verycoolnin/

click on thursday snow for my prediction

[greg81988]

looks good

[FLguy]

Yes they do and thats a reflection of tonights 18z gfs run which have the higher qpf up into Michigan on over into the NE and farther north then is shown on my map which most agree and them it wont be that far north. Trust me i read the full discussion. And my map does to a degree take into account for precip farther south with that light blue which on the southern end also implies a Mixed precip threat. Anything below that will more then likely be mostly rain with some mixed precip perhaps and ending as a little snow at best!!!!

king...dont put so much stock in the exact details (location of heaviest QPF...how much QPF...RN/SN/mix lines...ect) regarding the op GFS runs... just pay the most attention to the overall synoptic set-up FOR RIGHT NOW. wait until monday to start concerning yourself where the position of those features are.

[FLguy]

agreed overall when it comes to the map king...and nice job as well.

[verycoolnin]

I just thought of something, it would be a mix, not light snow in the southern band of light snow... I'll change that.

[greg81988]

If I was you I would put a very thin line of mixed precip at teh bottom but not too much.

[Guest]

Yes they do and thats a reflection of tonights 18z gfs run which have the higher qpf up into Michigan on over into the NE and farther north then is shown on my map which most agree and them it wont be that far north. Trust me i read the full discussion. And my map does to a degree take into account for precip farther south with that light blue which on the southern end also implies a Mixed precip threat. Anything below that will more then likely be mostly rain with some mixed precip perhaps and ending as a little snow at best!!!!

king...dont put so much stock in the exact details (location of heaviest QPF...how much QPF...RN/SN/mix lines...ect) regarding the op GFS runs... just pay the most attention to the overall synoptic set-up FOR RIGHT NOW. wait until monday to start concerning yourself where the position of those features are.

Thanks and i do agree. Just trying to put a point across that some here have a better undertsanding of. Not sure how well they know about the Synoptic set up or what it means. BTW dont anyone take offence to that. Doesnt apply to all. Kinda why i try to keep it simple for those who dont understand the more complex stuff about the weather.

[verycoolnin]

done, well... on the tail side of the low preasure some of the rain changes to snow... it's not that much.

[Anonymous]

Well here is my early idea of who will see the heaviest snows etc. I will add that areas on the southern edge in the lighter blue will have some mixed precip as well and has a greater chance then the areas on the northern Lighter bluee in the NE of seeing heavier snows. The Dark blue is who has the greatest chance of heavier snows. Still way way to early to even get into how much anyone will se at this point!

That's a nice map......................

I rather like where you have the heavier snows, though it would make me feel a tad better if you would move the heavier snow about 60 miles farther south.

Then I would feel a little more assured of substantial snows.


ARCTIC SNOW BLAST JEB!!!!!!! I SAY, BRING IT!!!!!!! C'MON, 36 INCHES!!!!

[verycoolnin]

I have stated on this board that I believe this system will take a track simular to the Friday storm, but maybe 50 or so miles north. I do not believe the majority of the snow with be from Penn to Northern VA. If your track does occur I'll be the first one to say that I was wrong.

[Guest]

I have stated on this board that I believe this system will take a track simular to the Friday storm, but maybe 50 or so miles north. I do not believe the majority of the snow with be from Penn to Northern VA. If your track does occur I'll be the first one to say that I was wrong.

All i ask is for YOU to give us a explaination as to why you believe this.

Thanks.