My PRELIMINARY thoughts for the 1/14 - 1/15 storm

Colin · #1 Postby **Colin** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 2:02 pm

Well, really, we're only 4 days away from this potential event, so I thought I'd begin my preliminary thoughts now, and my first forecast will bt out probably Monday afternoon...or Sunday night based on the amount of confidence I have...

First of all, I'm going with a scheme of the UKMET/GGEM ... which may be a bad idea, since UKMET has not been very good this year...

The areas that I believe will see the most snow are:

VA, MD, DE, SE NY, E PA, Most of NJ, and some good accumulating snows may reach to about NYC.

North NC may get in on some of the accumulating snows also.

Parts of the Tenn Valley & Ohio Valley may also see accumulating snows, but I'm not good with forecasting in that area...

Open to ANY criticism because I'm TRYING to learn and TRYING to forecast better...

donsutherland1 · #2 Postby **donsutherland1** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 2:19 pm

Colin,

Your early ideas look reasonable. Certainly, track, development, and speed (probably a fast-moving system) will all be important in trying to pin down the details.

therock1811 · #3 Postby **therock1811** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 2:23 pm

Ok...first off, I think I agre with most of your forecast, except the GGEM has the low well offshore at 144 hours:
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdd_100.gif

Now, that said, I do think parts of the OH/TN valleys do get accumulating snow...one local met predicted last night that we may see 4-6"(he's sticking his neck out). Latest AVN run indicates that that is a good possibility. However, it is way too far out to say how much, however, judging by these:
http://www.meteor.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn/avn_cpres_h108.gif

http://www.meteor.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn/avn_cpres_h114.gif

http://www.meteor.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn/avn_cpres_h120.gif

I'd say that that met is probably right...stay tuned!

EDIT: Could not get UKMET info, will post what I see as soon as I can get to it.

therock1811 · #4 Postby **therock1811** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 2:28 pm

I could only find UKMET out to 72 hours...could anyone find anything going out past there? Thanks.And BTW based on what I do have, I basically agree...

therock1811 · #5 Postby **therock1811** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 2:44 pm

Found one...looks like it bombs off NC at 120 hrs., then combines w/ a cyclone in Canada after that...
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cgi?time=2004011012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Now, based on that, if it verified, your forecast would bust IMO, because it stays offshore...but if it busts like it normally does, then you stand to be right

verycoolnin · #6 Postby **verycoolnin** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 3:12 pm

I think this is going to mainly be a midatlantic event. The heaviest snow being in Northern NC and Southern VA. In a day or two I'll post my preliminary snowfall amounts.

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 3:18 pm

therock1811 wrote:I could only find UKMET out to 72 hours...could anyone find anything going out past there? Thanks.And BTW based on what I do have, I basically agree...

Jeremy, use this link.

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 3:19 pm

According to the UKMET, it's further SOUTH than the other OP globals.

SF

QCWx · #9 Postby **QCWx** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 3:42 pm

Not even to mention it's almost a perfect track for the piedmont of NC.

Skywatch_NC · #10 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 3:45 pm

That'll be nice to get some more snow for my birthday on 1/14!

Eric

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 3:48 pm

Exactly, QCWx. Unfortunately, I don't take a lot of stock in the UKMET at this time. However, with such strength of the progged PV (neighboring 480DM, suppression definitely is a possible solution. 12z GGEM further north as well as the GFS/NOGAPS ...

The NOGAPS bombs the system WELL offshore.

Timing AND placement of the system is crucial for phasing ... and the low actually has a better chance the further south it is, the further north, the more likely it's crushed in the confluent zone of the PV.

SF

Guest · #12 Postby **Guest** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 3:56 pm

Not bad guys however. Consider this. First off notice the sunday/monday minor lakes/ne event and how thats trended farther north??? Get what i am saying here?? Lets not forget as well the trend the models start doing once were within 4 days or so of the event which they have begun!!! I think you all know what i am getting at here which is why i said what i did in my discussion thread about this storm. I think some of you is onto something but as well i dont think it will be from a coastal going up the coast but more of a system that travels farther north as it progresses farther east from the Central Plains to the MA coast moving in a almost due east fashion.
I will say this much as well that the 18zgfs is probably one of the best LOOKING runs i have ever seen.......I would give everything for that run to Completly verify (I know chances are very slim to none atleast past day 7 or so!!!! I know what a pipe dream huh. I can dream!

Anyways have a look at the total QPF from the 18z run for the 14/15 system!

Not saying thats a guarentee that it will happen but its nice to see inside of 4 days of the event which does help the odds out greatly!!!

Skywatch_NC · #13 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 4:08 pm

Well, King...whichever way it tracks...I'll be hopeful for a few flakes...even if it turns out to be just flurries this go-around for northern NC.

Current NWS forecast for my area:

Wednesday:

Increasing clouds. Highs in the lower 40s.

Wednesday Night:

Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 40 percent.

Thursday:

Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow 40 percent.

Colin · #14 Postby **Colin** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 4:13 pm

Eric, you may be in for a few inches of snow...probably on the order of 2-4" maybe more depending on the way it tracks!

Guest · #15 Postby **Guest** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 4:16 pm

Yea Skywatch. i hear you. Still have a few days for the finer details to work themselves out such as QC and SF pointed out. Which means it still could change. I just feel a little more confident right now because my ideas i had about this storm the last several days looks so far to be paning out....

Just check back in because you are riding a fine line where you are located...................NWS here has us in snow for Tuesday into Wednesday.

And dont forget for some the snow ratios will be high as well adding more snow then you would normally get for whoever is in the deeper artic air when this system passes thru!!!!

CINCINNATISUN · #16 Postby **CINCINNATISUN** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 4:26 pm

Eric

,

Hope you have a great birthday next Wednesday !!

Steve

Skywatch_NC · #17 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 4:35 pm

CINCINNATISUN wrote:Eric ,

Hope you have a great birthday next Wednesday !!

Steve

Thank you very much, Steve!

41 here I COME!! :wink:

Eric

therock1811 · #18 Postby **therock1811** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 7:52 pm

That's exactly what I pointed out on my last post...thanks!

My PRELIMINARY thoughts for the 1/14 - 1/15 storm

My PRELIMINARY thoughts for the 1/14 - 1/15 storm

Re: My PRELIMINARY thoughts for the 1/14 - 1/15 storm

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