? Blizzard Next Weekend For The East ?

Guest · #21 Postby **Guest** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 5:16 pm

You guys are wareing me out chasing these threads. LOL

Right now the UK is the outlier of all the models. Which i think you all know. Just incase those who dont know well now they do. UK took a big jump from the north yesterday now to the south as the other models become in better agreement on this system farther north!!!!!!!

Nice discussion guys!!!

Anonymous · #22 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 5:18 pm

king of weather wrote:You guys are wareing me out chasing these threads. LOL

Right now the UK is the outlier of all the models. Which i think you all know. Just incase those who dont know well now they do. UK took a big jump from the north yesterday now to the south as the other models become in better agreement on this system farther north!!!!!!!

Nice discussion guys!!!

This is a nice, exciting weather board!! We wouldn't want you to miss out, King!!!

-ARCTIC FREEZE JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

verycoolnin · #23 Postby **verycoolnin** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 5:58 pm

You guys are wareing me out chasing these threads. LOL

It's wearing me out too.

The latest GFS does have the storm north but until there's a trend of that I still believe it will hit NC and VA, the trough in the east should be digging pretty deep Wedenday after a reinforcing shot of cold air on Tuesday night.

greg81988 · #24 Postby **greg81988** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 5:59 pm

wat about teh storm on the 18-20???

verycoolnin · #25 Postby **verycoolnin** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 6:05 pm

Nothings certain for the system that should hit on the 18th. It does have the potential to be a nor-easter. But the latest GFS models don't have this system hitting land, we'll just have to wait and see.

Anonymous · #26 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 6:44 pm

For those of you in VA who are sick and tired of this cool weather, weather.com is progging N VA with a high of 51 on Monday and 49 on Tuesday. (Talk about a SHARP warming trend!!) Hmmm......wonder if that influx of milder values could allow a storm to track much farther north.......

-ARCTIC BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

verycoolnin · #27 Postby **verycoolnin** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 6:51 pm

yes, it will warm up on Monday and Tuesday but a reinforcing shot of cold air will come in Tuesday night.

Guest · #28 Postby **Guest** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 7:33 pm

I hate to tell you this verycoolin but i think the heavier snows will be to your north. More or less on a line from Richmond, VA across to Chincoteague, VA on north. You still may get a few inches but the heavier stuff does look to be farther north in VA. The heaviest looks to fall from IA, IL, IN, OH, N.KY, WV, PA, MD, DE, NJ and northern VA. The Southern NE coast and se NY should do well as well from this system.

greg81988 · #29 Postby **greg81988** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 7:37 pm

how much does it look like right now for richmond,va?

verycoolnin · #30 Postby **verycoolnin** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 7:59 pm

The exact track is still very far off, I'm still confident the heaviest precip will stay south.

Guest · #31 Postby **Guest** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 8:05 pm

verycoolnin wrote:The exact track is still very far off, I'm still confident the heaviest precip will stay south.

Mind giving us a solid good reason as to why you think this?

therock1811 · #32 Postby **therock1811** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 8:09 pm

king of weather wrote:I hate to tell you this verycoolin but i think the heavier snows will be to your north. More or less on a line from Richmond, VA across to Chincoteague, VA on north. You still may get a few inches but the heavier stuff does look to be farther north in VA. The heaviest looks to fall from IA, IL, IN, OH, N.KY, WV, PA, MD, DE, NJ and northern VA. The Southern NE coast and se NY should do well as well from this system.

Oh boy! Me and Jeb could get our big snow, huh?

#33 Postby **FLguy** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 8:22 pm

king of weather wrote:
verycoolnin wrote:The exact track is still very far off, I'm still confident the heaviest precip will stay south.

Mind giving us a solid good reason as to why you think this?

The new EC has a 1001mb low sitting along the VA capes...which supports the GFS 12z and 18z runs...the GGEM 12z and JMA. that said I dont think it comes all the way up the coast. but since the PV is getting the hell out of SE canada the s/w associated with the PV lobe will be allowed to dig into the GL more as the jet weakens...phasing with the energy over the mid atlantic.

this is looking like more of a problem for PHL...DCA...NYC (with PA...MD...DE...N VA...SE NY...CT...RI..SE MA and the cape under the gun)

Guest · #34 Postby **Guest** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 8:24 pm

FLguy wrote:
king of weather wrote:
verycoolnin wrote:The exact track is still very far off, I'm still confident the heaviest precip will stay south.

Mind giving us a solid good reason as to why you think this?

The new EC has a 1001mb low sitting along the VA capes...which supports the GFS 12z and 18z runs...the GGEM 12z and JMA. that said I dont think it comes all the way up the coast. but since the PV is getting the hell out of SE canada the s/w will be allowed to dig into the GL more as the jet weakens...phasing with the energy over the mid atlantic.

this is looking like more of a problem for PHL...DCA...NYC (with PA...MD...DE...N VA...SE NY...CT...RI..SE MA and the cape under the gun)

Agreed FLguy! And on the other side of the apps its like i said in this thread i think and the other ones as well. I have a thread with a map on it for a better idea!

#35 Postby **FLguy** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 8:37 pm

king of weather wrote:
FLguy wrote:
king of weather wrote:
verycoolnin wrote:The exact track is still very far off, I'm still confident the heaviest precip will stay south.

Mind giving us a solid good reason as to why you think this?

The new EC has a 1001mb low sitting along the VA capes...which supports the GFS 12z and 18z runs...the GGEM 12z and JMA. that said I dont think it comes all the way up the coast. but since the PV is getting the hell out of SE canada the s/w will be allowed to dig into the GL more as the jet weakens...phasing with the energy over the mid atlantic.

this is looking like more of a problem for PHL...DCA...NYC (with PA...MD...DE...N VA...SE NY...CT...RI..SE MA and the cape under the gun)

Agreed FLguy! And on the other side of the apps its like i said in this thread i think and the other ones as well. I have a thread with a map on it for a better idea!

yep...and its also discounting the UKMET solution even more...which given the model consenseus right now i would say the UK solution is a load of BS. the EC has done the best with major east coast snow events MOST of the time this winter (it has been off in a few cases though) however its been consistent in the past two runs...the GFS/GGEM/JMA are in pretty good agreement so i see where the trend is heading.

let me clarify though...i DO NOT expect this to come all the way up the coast...it should move from the VA capes...east northeast or northeast passing just southeast of the benchmark.

this could end up being a big ticket item for eastern PA...eastern MD...Southeast NY...NJ...DE...NYC...SE new england as ATL moisture gets drawn into the very cold air. snow to liquid ratios will be running very high given the cold air in place so its likely that we will see very good snowfall growth and precipitation efficiency.

IOW...more bang for your buck as it relates to how much snow can fall in relation to QPF totals.

we SHOULD NOT however get hung up on totals right now. wait until later in the week. its TOO EARLY.

greg81988 · #36 Postby **greg81988** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 8:39 pm

Are you thinking that central Virginia will be in for a good time storm also?

#37 Postby **FLguy** » Sat Jan 10, 2004 8:40 pm

also EXCELLENT job on the maps king.

hurricanedude · #38 Postby **hurricanedude** » Sun Jan 11, 2004 12:06 am

SE VA MAY NOT DO TO BAD EITHER!!

Guest · #39 Postby **Guest** » Sun Jan 11, 2004 12:12 am

hurricanedude wrote:SE VA MAY NOT DO TO BAD EITHER!!

Not trying to be a wise guy. But may i ask what your reasoning is behind what you say?????

I will say i guess it as well depends on what you think isnt so bad for se va? If your talking 1 - 4 type event. Then ok that looks possible. Other then that if you think higher i would like to know why?

Thanks.

hurricanedude · #40 Postby **hurricanedude** » Sun Jan 11, 2004 12:29 am

no i was thinking 2-4......if so that would put us at or slightly above our seasonal total, and its still just early January.....so NOT BAD!!!!
AGREE??

? Blizzard Next Weekend For The East ?

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