? Blizzard Next Weekend For The East ?

[Anonymous]

I have read several posts and other weather sites and they all seem to agree that there will be some kind of strong storm the 18 through the 20. I know its 8 to 10 days out, but none the less it could be the BIG one. What are your thoughts on this one and also the storm this week in the Mid-Atlantic?

[Colin]

it's possible...

[Anonymous]

it's possible...

I know that, so many times it has been "possible" and so many times there was nothing but a few flurries. Does this one have any more potentile than any others? WXRISk has risk with an orange backround, I think there is a little more than a possibility

[thstorm87]

chance, but unforntanely it prob wont happen, I mean first they were saying we could have a storm yesterday, then they were calling for a storm sunday night into monday, now it looks like the one for mid week may stay to the south. Whats to say the one next weekend wont do the same?

[kpantz]

chance, but unforntanely it prob wont happen, I mean first they were saying we could have a storm yesterday, then they were calling for a storm sunday night into monday, now it looks like the one for mid week may stay to the south. Whats to say the one next weekend wont do the same?

I'm by no means an expert, but I'd say that most of these systems are missing because the PV is locked in rather far southeast, and it's doing two things: making it damn cold around here and suppressing systems to the south. This can't keep up. The pattern will eventually shift, and quite often, the pattern shift out of deep eastern cold is accompanied by a major system. It could be that the models are shifting things around in the 8-10 day timeframe, and the ducks might be lining up.

Just my 2 cents...

[Anonymous]

Mabe, but it's still way to far out to say for sure. There is a good chance and many people are saying it, but we just have to wait until wednesday or thursday to be more confident. I think it will happen.

[Colin]

I give it about a 45% chance of occuring.

[Anonymous]

I give it about a 45% chance of occuring.

Really, a 45% chance is good, but I would have to say that it would be more like 50-60% chance. I want my MONSTER BLIZZARD

[Colin]

We should know more by Tuesday or Wednesday...right now, I'm giving it a 45% chance of occuring.

[verycoolnin]

A 50% chance of precip... 20% chance it's a blizzard.

[Anonymous]

all right, I will take those ods, just will have to wait and see

[FLguy]

yes your exactly right kpantz...

its the interaction between the blocking...50/50 low and PV that determines what goes on along the east coast in relation to the potential for a major winter storm.

usually when one sees the PV displaced well to the southeast (and very strong at that ) over SE canada or newfoundland...and s/w that comes through the flow will be shunted to the southeast or sheared apart in the confluence zone.

the GFS 12z run this afternoon depicts a VERY strong PV ( down to 480DM !!!!) thats displaced well to the southeast ---- just to the west of newfoundland. we notice the height rises toward greenland so we have the -NAO but NO 50/50 low.

102hr GFS VT 18z 1/14:



the s/w in question is dropping southeastward across the the midwest. but because of the strong AJ induced by the supressed PV across SE canada...nothing can dig southward and phase with the s/w.

by 120hrs (Valid 12z 1/15) the PV is starting to rotate notheastward... however is still VERY strong (~480 DM) and pretty close to newfounland:



now notice also that the GFS is trying to imply that since the PV is getting out of SE canada and rotating back to the NE...the jet is relaxing and the s/w across the Great Lakes associated with an extention of the PV with is going to try to dig in and phase with the energy across the eastern US. as the trough begins to tilt negative.

and sure enough the GFS beings the surface low to the delmarva at 120hrs.



what IS NOT important here are the QPF values that you see the model printing out. its MUCH too early to be concerned with how much snow will fall and where. its the position of the synoptic features that IS MOST IMPORTANT at this juncture.

by 126hrs the GFS phases the s/w digging into the lakes with the energy over the mid-atlantic...right along the east coast...so the trough tilts negative and and the surface low bombs out off the coast.



the iggest questions we have to answer here (and will in the next few days) are A) can the phasing of the s/w digging into the eastern GL at 120 hrs phase with the s/w coming through the mid-atlantic. B) IF ---- IF --- IF the phasing does occur...when does it take place. the longer the phasing waits the LESS potential there will be for a significant event across the mid-atlantic and southern new england.

right now IMO the JAN 15 event is a bigger problem for KY...TN...NC...VA...DE...SE PA...Central and Southern NJ...perhaps eastern LI and the cape. as compared to the rest of the northeast.

now in relation to precipitation totals there are a few things of note. this event will have much higher snow to liquid ratio due to the airmass in place than what the past few have had...which means one can see MORE accumulations with LESS QPF. as i said...ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON TOTALS. but we can say that with the higher ratios .... we will have MUCH better precipitation efficiency with this POTENTIAL event than what we did with the mid DEC event.

and for those of you that are absolutely concerned with seeing how much QPF the GFS was spouting off ... heres the 60hr totals for the period ending 18z 1/15:



notice were dealing with general amounts between .25" and .50". but with the higher ratios can lead to some impressive accumulations. and that may even be underdone slightly depending on how much atlantic moisture gets involved and how quickly. especially along the coast...where i know a few others were implying that this has the potential to turn into quite an event.

the 12z run of the GFS ensembels this afternoon have a very interestign scenario as well.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 11012.html

notice the initial system streaking SE into the midwest at 96hrs ( 00z 1/15)...now remember folks this is the average of several different models run at the same time so the potential for extremes in the data is less than what it would be on the operational GFS.

by 126hrs the system is sitting across the mid-atlantic...however the ensembels look as if they are trying to draw the low into the system further to the northeast. which is a very interesting scenario as the operational run did not imply that and attempted to bomb the clipper out off the coast.

but that said notice all the variance indicated...by the orange and red shaded areas across the mid-atlantic...GL and southern new england which is a sign tha tthe individual ensemble members are NOT in good agreement with one another on the position of that low.

heres the individual members (12 panel plot):

500mb height:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f120.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f132.html

Sfc pressure/precip/thickness:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/f120.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/f132.html

[FLguy]

and the 12z run of the UKMET this afternoon takes the system on a FAR supressed track...and bombs it out off the NC coast at 120 hrs. thereafter the UKMET ombines it with the large cyclone in SE canada whereupon forming a HUGE and DEEP ocean low by 144hrs. this idea would sort of support the 12z GFS ensembles BUT the system is allowed to bomb out offshore before being drawn into the large cyclone over SE canada.

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

the

[verycoolnin]

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/5e/mrf_pres_5e.html

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/6d/mrf_pres_6d.html

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/5e/mrf_850_5e.html

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/6d/mrf_850_6d.html

[FLguy]

and in addition to that...the JMA (japanese model) bombs the system out CLOSER to the VA/NC coast than the UKMET:

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/jmatc2.cgi? ... =Animation

the 12z NOGAPS waits MUCH longer than the JMA and is similar in some respects to the UKMET.

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... =Animation

right now the JMA is the most ominous. as it does imply a significant MID ATLANTIC and COASTAL new england snowstorm. LESS inland.

since the 12z GGEM is only out to 72hrs...theres no way to tell what it does with the system.

[therock1811]

and the 12z run of the UKMET this afternoon takes the system on a FAR supressed track...and bombs it out off the NC coast at 120 hrs. thereafter the UKMET ombines it with the large cyclone in SE canada whereupon forming a HUGE and DEEP ocean low by 144hrs. this idea would sort of support the 12z GFS ensembles BUT the system is allowed to bomb out offshore before being drawn into the large cyclone over SE canada.

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

I think that will verify...BTW FLguy, I used this in another thread, hope that's ok...

[FLguy]

and the 12z run of the UKMET this afternoon takes the system on a FAR supressed track...and bombs it out off the NC coast at 120 hrs. thereafter the UKMET ombines it with the large cyclone in SE canada whereupon forming a HUGE and DEEP ocean low by 144hrs. this idea would sort of support the 12z GFS ensembles BUT the system is allowed to bomb out offshore before being drawn into the large cyclone over SE canada.

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

I think that will verify...BTW FLguy, I used this in another thread, hope that's ok...

thats fine...

[therock1811]

Cool...thanks...

[Stormsfury]

12z GGEM fairly ominous ... 991 mb low at 120 hrs, and close to a benchmark 70W. This would imply a decent hit for Cape Cod, and portions of NE, and LI.



SF

[FLguy]

12z GGEM fairly ominous ... 991 mb low at 120 hrs, and close to a benchmark 70W. This would imply a decent hit for Cape Cod, and portions of NE, and LI.

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif

SF

yep...which would go hand in hand with the 12z operational GFS