The next week or Two! Big Cold! & Big Snows????? (SECS?)

[Guest]

Get ready those of you East of the rockies as things are about to take a turn for colder and yes even snowier in some cases.

Snow Threat's! If and i do say IF the 12z models verify, GFS, UK, GGEM, we could be looking at a big snow threat for parts of the OV, MA, and the NE on or about the 15th???
The UK is the most inland solution and the GFS the most SE with the ggem right in between. Wouldnt mind seeing the EC jump on board either but for that we will have to wait and see what the 00z rolls out.

Here is what each says.

GFS. at 132 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_132.shtml

UK at the same time.


GGEM AT 144 (OOz)


The thing about this system is it seems to be a ene mover meaning there is a chance it may not make it around the bend at the eastern seaboard (More or less a turn up the coast????Have to wait and see on this one. That could have affects on snow amounts in the NE??????

If i was to stick my head out right now i would say that IN, OH, KY, WV, VA, MD, DE, PA, NJ and even to a degree se NY and sne has the best shot at this system and large amounts of snow............Have to wait and see. Just know the POTENTIAL is there.


As for what happens after this snow potential......Cold and lots of it..............Probably the coldest we have seen in years for some parts of the eastern US/GL and upper midwest with the clippers taking over for a while with the first one right behind our bigger event looking the best for right now putting out a nice swath of snow in the midwest especially and into the OH Valley to a degree...............This pattern looks to hold for atleast the next week or two with maybe a slight warm up towards the end of the month as the cold may visit the western us to a degree and more so the center of the nation.............This pattern is ripe for lots of storm potential so keep a watch full eye out on it.

Stay tuned for further details on this up comming potentail snowstorm for the eastern us.

Share your thoughts on it............[/url]

[Johnny]

Very good discussion. I hope y'all get it.


What about us here in the Deep South?

[Guest]

Expect the cold to pay you all a visit as well which i mentioned towards the end of the discussion. For wintry precip timming will be a big issue here which i think you and everyone else down that way knows however the chances are better then average for those areas of seeing some kind of wintry event. Thats all i can say about that for now because its simply to far out yet to make a for sure call on. Another good thing going is the sw will be on the increase which could help out as well. Just have to wait and see.

[Anonymous]

Looks really good---the potential is definately there-----And, I am taking NO chances, I am gonna pray like a fanatic that this system REALLY CRANKS out the HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS!!!!!!!!


C'MON, 36 INCHES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



-ARCTIC BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!! WE'RE READY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[therock1811]

I for one am ready as far as being prepared for a big snow... one that strands me for 3 weeks...will not be fun traveling if I do any, so likely would not...

[breeze]

Jeremy, I keep asking you to push
a little of that white stuff south
to me, buddy!

[therock1811]

I keep trying breeze...you get any the last two days?

[Colin]

Great discussion, KOW...I agree 100% with it.

[Lowpressure]

KOW another solid post, I will be looking forward to further discussion as the event date gets closer.

[breeze]

We just got rain, this round.

February is a more likely time for snow
in my area. Thanks for the post, King!
I'll be watching...!

[Stephanie]

Right now it is 15 degrees, going down to a low of 7 degrees. This will be the coldest night yet and we're only in the beginning of the cold wave.

Next week's models do look very promising not only for the 15th, but on the 18th - 19th as well - a double whammy perhaps??

[Anonymous]

Right now it is 15 degrees, going down to a low of 7 degrees. This will be the coldest night yet and we're only in the beginning of the cold wave.

Next week's models do look very promising not only for the 15th, but on the 18th - 19th as well - a double whammy perhaps??

I'd LOVE that!!! A One-Two Punch of heavy snows!!!!

Bring It!!!!


-ARCTIC FREEZE JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[vbhoutex]

Right now it is 15 degrees, going down to a low of 7 degrees. This will be the coldest night yet and we're only in the beginning of the cold wave.

Next week's models do look very promising not only for the 15th, but on the 18th - 19th as well - a double whammy perhaps??

Looks like a good possiblity of a 1-2 punch looking at the models that KOW posted. The cold should stay in place long enough. I've read elsewhere that the 2nd one may be the bigger, but I haven't taken time yet to really check out th emodels and gather my thoughts.

[FLguy]

Right now it is 15 degrees, going down to a low of 7 degrees. This will be the coldest night yet and we're only in the beginning of the cold wave.

Next week's models do look very promising not only for the 15th, but on the 18th - 19th as well - a double whammy perhaps??

Looks like a good possiblity of a 1-2 punch looking at the models that KOW posted. The cold should stay in place long enough. I've read elsewhere that the 2nd one may be the bigger, but I haven't taken time yet to really check out th emodels and gather my thoughts.

right now BOTH events look promising...though if i had to pick the system with the best potential to become a MAJOR/WIDESPREAD east coast snow event it would be the system progged for the weekend of the 17th.

[Guest]

Right now it is 15 degrees, going down to a low of 7 degrees. This will be the coldest night yet and we're only in the beginning of the cold wave.

Next week's models do look very promising not only for the 15th, but on the 18th - 19th as well - a double whammy perhaps??

Looks like a good possiblity of a 1-2 punch looking at the models that KOW posted. The cold should stay in place long enough. I've read elsewhere that the 2nd one may be the bigger, but I haven't taken time yet to really check out th emodels and gather my thoughts.

right now BOTH events look promising...though if i had to pick the system with the best potential to become a MAJOR/WIDESPREAD east coast snow event it would be the system progged for the weekend of the 17th.

Just wondering why you think this? My problem with that theory is the first system robbing the second and as well pushing the second one farther south and more out to sea?????

[Stormsfury]

Looking at the EC tonight, the day 8-10 3 day average implies a BIG THREAT ... on two aspects ...

First, the threat is in the DEEP SOUTH ...



NOTICE on this loop of the 500mb heights on the 1/9/04 EC run, the punching of a s/w in the PJ/AJ in the Central US around the PV - 50/50 low and at the same time, the S/W in the SW states moving east ... We have a VERY STRONG confluent zone setting up and turning fairly WSW across the SE states ... at the same time, the location of the PV and the day 7 progs lead me to believe CAD will become quite a factor with the moisture pooling in TX and spreading east ...

EVEN IF this does not become a SECS/MECS (in which this setup looks PRIME), and yes, we've been through this several times around 10 days out only to have, at best, a minor event ... this is different even if NO MECS/SECS comes to pass.

IMHO, the EC implies a strong OVERRUNNING event over the top of BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR and if anything, it appears there's some fujiwhara effect going on with another vort diving southeast from Canada ... meanwhile, the s/w in the SW States looks a little stronger than previous runs, and MAY induce cyclogenesis in the W GOM ... in response, return moisture flow over the top of the cold air in place COULD become a MAJOR icestorm for the DEEP SOUTH 8-10 days from now ...

Now, if the PV/PJ doesn't shear out the southern s/w in the confluent zone, and TIMING is EVERYTHING with this, this thing could become a MONSTER, maybe phasing from the SBJ, PJ, and maybe an arctic vort getting involved as well ... that is IF everything comes together correctly and could become a historic EC hit. But again, my speculation and pure model interpretation.

SF

[Guest]

Looking at the EC tonight, the day 8-10 3 day average implies a BIG THREAT ... on two aspects ...

First, the threat is in the DEEP SOUTH ...



NOTICE on this loop of the 500mb heights on the 1/9/04 EC run, the punching of a s/w in the PJ/AJ in the Central US around the PV - 50/50 low and at the same time, the S/W in the SW states moving east ... We have a VERY STRONG confluent zone setting up and turning fairly WSW across the SE states ... at the same time, the location of the PV and the day 7 progs lead me to believe CAD will become quite a factor with the moisture pooling in TX and spreading east ...

EVEN IF this does not become a SECS/MECS (in which this setup looks PRIME), and yes, we've been through this several times around 10 days out only to have, at best, a minor event ... this is different even if NO MECS/SECS comes to pass.

IMHO, the EC implies a strong OVERRUNNING event over the top of BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR and if anything, it appears there's some fujiwhara effect going on with another vort diving southeast from Canada ... meanwhile, the s/w in the SW States looks a little stronger than previous runs, and MAY induce cyclogenesis in the W GOM ... in response, return moisture flow over the top of the cold air in place COULD become a MAJOR icestorm for the DEEP SOUTH 8-10 days from now ...

Now, if the PV/PJ doesn't shear out the southern s/w in the confluent zone, and TIMING is EVERYTHING with this, this thing could become a MONSTER, maybe phasing from the SBJ, PJ, and maybe an arctic vort getting involved as well ... that is IF everything comes together correctly and could become a historic EC hit. But again, my speculation and pure model interpretation.

SF

Good catch SF! I was just looking at the GFS at about that time frame and even that catches on to a big eastcoast threat but on day 12 and 13. Which is a start and non the less amazing to see something like this beeing picked up on two models this far out...........Time will tell and as you said timing will be everything! Either way i do like the set up (Would perfer a slightly nw jaunt) . Lots of time to watch this one as well anyways.

[JQ Public]

we may hit 9 tomorrow night due to snow cover and clear skies!!

[Lehigh]

Brother King,

I hope it holds off a bit..........

I have to move in 10 days and these cold snaps are killing
me........LOL

I have still much to do with the move and a BIG SNOW storm
will not help me.

I should have moved back in October when it was allot warmer
and I knew then that my house would probably sell by the end
of December.

Offer came in and settlement is going to take place on the 19th
of this month........LOL

Stupid me..............I knew better.

Oh well........can't change it............I must do what I must do.

I don't know if anyone else went through what I am going
through during the winter months.

I can tell you that it is pure stressful to the max.

Good thread King.............You are usually right on with
your reports and that is why I am concern about any
BIG SNOW storms.

Have a GREAT day and thanks again for the info.

[JCT777]

Good luck on the move, Lehigh. I hope there is no storm on the day that you move. Maybe the storm will be delayed so that you have finished moving before the storm hits.