My view on the next few weeks...

[Colin]

Well, for one, it's going to be very cold...although there may be a brief warmup before a second arctic blast moves in for mid to late next week. Low temperatures through the Northeast will range from -40°F in some places to 0° - 20° in other areas. Wind Chill values will be MUCH worse. Highs on Saturday may only be in the teens for the Northeast. But after that is when the potential warmup may occur, with highs getting back to about normal. But it will not last long at all, expect arctic air to move back in by the 13th.

Now for the potential storms. The 12-14 storm is pretty much cancelled, although we do have a possibility the 14th to the 16th. Models have trended nicely today, brings a storm back into the picture for around that time, but right now, I'm pretty doubtful on that one.

The next, and most important threat, is around the 20th, with the potential three-stream phaser. Now these events are very rare, but some models are showing it as a possibility, so it needs to be watched. If something like that would develop, it'd definitley be like '96 or even '93.

So some active times ahead...stay tuned, as we have some great discussions going on here!

[JCT777]

Colin - nice update. Cold is a definite over the next 10 to 14 days, with a few storm potentials.

[Lowpressure]

Agree we are setting up for major storm potential around the 21st. Plenty of cold air in place.

[d]

we do have a possibility the 14th to the 16th. Models have trended nicely today, brings a storm back into the picture for around that time, but right now, I'm pretty doubtful on that one.

Good post, I don't agree with your assessment on the 14th-16th event however. why are you doubtful on that one??

[SnowWeatherMan]

Remember... he uses his feelings to forecast...

GFS has had the 14-16 for three consecutive runs now with a significant event for the MA/NE. Yes I know it's the GFS, but the UKMET has some substantial support with it too. EC and GGEM have it, but weaker. Latest trend has the s/w becoming increasingly stronger closer to the event, so i suspect it will continue.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_144m.gif

[d]

[quote="SnowWeatherMan"]Remember... he uses his feelings to forecast...

GFS has had the 14-16 for three consecutive runs now with a significant event for the MA/NE. Yes I know it's the GFS, but the UKMET has some substantial support with it too. EC and GGEM have it, but weaker. Latest trend has the s/w becoming increasingly stronger closer to the event, so i suspect it will continue.
[url]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_144m.gif[/url][/quote]

on 12z it doesn't make it past NYC so I don't no about NE. PV to strong on this run to get anything significant across NYC with sharp cutoff. take into consideration we are 5-6 days out but odds are good for some type of event IMO.

[Colin]

I actually didn't go with my feelings on this one, FYI...

[d]

[quote="Colin"]I actually didn't go with my feelings on this one, FYI... [/quote]

Ok, then what did you go with?? certainly couldn't have been Gfs/Ukmet/GGEM??

[Colin]

it was just my thoughts...have anything else to say?

[d]

[quote="Colin"]it was just my thoughts...have anything else to say?[/quote]

Yeah, your thoughts or LC's thoughts?? I just asked for some interpretation after your post which was well written in my opinion, but if it's to much to ask then fine.

[Guest]

I wouldnt mind knowing where you have gotten these ideas as well Colin. Im not trying to pick on you but like anyone else when you put up a forecast like this i would like to hear the reasoning behind it is all.

[Colin]

It's just what I've been hearing lately...and put my twist on it. That's all...

[d]

[quote="Colin"]It's just what I've been hearing lately...and put my twist on it. That's all...[/quote]

I don't know if you've heard lately but the models are showing something for the 14-15 time frame, which could be very,very significant. If the Euro shows it tonight take it to the bank there will be an event next week.

[JCT777]

I don't know if you've heard lately but the models are showing something for the 14-15 time frame, which could be very,very significant. If the Euro shows it tonight take it to the bank there will be an event next week.

Agreed, d. I am anxious to see what the Euro shows for this event. Looks like an event at this point, the question is where (Tenn Valley to Southeast? Lower Ohio Valley to mid-Atlantic? Great Lakes/ Upper Ohio Valley to Northeast? etc.)

[Colin]

I'll post my thinking on this later......right now I'm thinking that this may be a pretty good event for NYC south.......

[Heady Guy]

Keep the faith Collin. I remember a week or two ago, you were ready to cancel winter. lol I have a strong feeling we will have a layer of white by this time next week.

[Colin]

I sure hope!

[Guest]

Yes isnt it nice to see some wintryWX potential. Nice to have some things to track over the next few weeks perhaps. Looks like most everyone will sahre in the action which makes it even better.