WOW.....

[-=BTC=-PROFESSOR]

The gulf is really opening the flood gates look at the bow in ths line......look how much precep is in tenn and wv.....

[verycoolnin]

I noticed that, I'm not sure why NWS snow predictions are so low.

[Stormsfury]

It's called a VERY DRY Lower Atmosphere ... Doppler Radars are extremely sensitive and the overrunning moisture HAS to first saturate, and as the atmosphere saturates thru evap cooling, then the lower levels can sustain more moisture.

CHS soundings indicate that the atmosphere is VERY DRY below the 780 mb level, and although, there have been substantial dark patches (possible sleet mixed in, there haven't been any reports of sleet, and none here either) ... Overrunning events are very predictable and unpredictable in their nature.

The predictable nature is that the initial moisture returns will be overdone from the radar depiction to the actual SFC reports ... in other words, a virga storm. And this is something I fully expected and counted on. Cooler than progged temperatures, but less than progged QPF's due to such a fact ...

SF

[Anonymous]

It's called a VERY DRY Lower Atmosphere ... Doppler Radars are extremely sensitive and the overrunning moisture HAS to first saturate, and as the atmosphere saturates thru evap cooling, then the lower levels can sustain more moisture.

CHS soundings indicate that the atmosphere is VERY DRY below the 780 mb level, and although, there have been substantial dark patches (possible sleet mixed in, there haven't been any reports of sleet, and none here either) ... Overrunning events are very predictable and unpredictable in their nature.

The predictable nature is that the initial moisture returns will be overdone from the radar depiction to the actual SFC reports ... in other words, a virga storm. And this is something I fully expected and counted on. Cooler than progged temperatures, but less than progged QPF's due to such a fact ...

SF

We have virga over Woodbridge at the present time. SFC temps is 29, dewpoint is 24, and relative humidity is 81 percent.

You think we might see some flurries now?


-JEB

[FLguy]

It's called a VERY DRY Lower Atmosphere ... Doppler Radars are extremely sensitive and the overrunning moisture HAS to first saturate, and as the atmosphere saturates thru evap cooling, then the lower levels can sustain more moisture.

CHS soundings indicate that the atmosphere is VERY DRY below the 780 mb level, and although, there have been substantial dark patches (possible sleet mixed in, there haven't been any reports of sleet, and none here either) ... Overrunning events are very predictable and unpredictable in their nature.

The predictable nature is that the initial moisture returns will be overdone from the radar depiction to the actual SFC reports ... in other words, a virga storm. And this is something I fully expected and counted on. Cooler than progged temperatures, but less than progged QPF's due to such a fact ...

SF

Virga...

until the vertical column can become saturated it doesnt matter how intense the reflectivity is on the nexrad returns. bright banding can indicate sleet mixing with rain or wet snow which is melting on the way down.

[Stormsfury]

Jeb, there are several s/w's across the boards ... the one tomorrow should increase 850mb WAA and moisture which should eventually overcome the very dry atmosphere, and yes, you should get a small accumulation from this system ...

I've decided to leave my discussion AS IS on my website for the Carolinas, and GA ... as it appears to be looking pretty much on track based on the recent observations I've seen ... though, I should have added the threat for ZR/IP as well in locations and at the onset of precip ... otherwise, it looks fine.

SF

[Scott_inVA]

It's called a VERY DRY Lower Atmosphere ... Doppler Radars are extremely sensitive and the overrunning moisture HAS to first saturate, and as the atmosphere saturates thru evap cooling, then the lower levels can sustain more moisture.

CHS soundings indicate that the atmosphere is VERY DRY below the 780 mb level, and although, there have been substantial dark patches (possible sleet mixed in, there haven't been any reports of sleet, and none here either) ... Overrunning events are very predictable and unpredictable in their nature.

The predictable nature is that the initial moisture returns will be overdone from the radar depiction to the actual SFC reports ... in other words, a virga storm. And this is something I fully expected and counted on. Cooler than progged temperatures, but less than progged QPF's due to such a fact ...

SF

and those returns are low. Aside from a small blob south of Tusc (~.70"),
there is very little apparently reaching SFC.

AL-GA 700mb RH remains low (< 70%). Still a very dry atmos...WV showing dry wedge under s/w well into OK-AK.

ZZZzzz

Scott

[Stormsfury]

Exactly the point, Scott ... thanks for the additional info., and sorry about having to see you lose the avatar, guess the wife went postal ..

[verycoolnin]

we already have a dusting in Tabb

[liltwilite2004]

We are having freezing rain right now........although they say it will change over to snow after while, we have gone from a dusting or less to 2-4 inches. Tomorrow it will be something different lol.

[verycoolnin]

Cheasapeke, VA is at 4in and still snowing.