January Update: Severe Cold and Snow Likely Down the Road

[donsutherland1]

Jeb,

The coldest I ever experienced was -38F up in Chibougamou in Quebec.

[Anonymous]

Jeb,

If the pattern meets its full potential in going to extremes, I believe Woodbridge might well see a day where highs are in the 18-23 range. For now, that's a big "if" but I do believe that the worst of the cold (or best if one really loves the cold) will not be this week or weekend.

Thanks, Don. If it doesn't come to pass, what we are enjoying now is pretty cool, crisp winter weather here in the N VA region. But a really good cooldown, even more so than what we are partaking of now, would be very exciting and invigorating.

If we do get it, I will be savoring every millisecond of my jebwalk.



-ARCTIC FREEZE JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bring It!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

Jeb,

The coldest I ever experienced was -38F up in Chibougamou in Quebec.

That's some pretty chilly weather.




-ARCTIC FREEZE JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bring It!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[donsutherland1]

Jeb,

Enjoy the cold but don't take it for granted. Make sure you avoid frostbite if you're going to spend an extended period of time outdoors. I've spent a winter up in the Quebec province and under bright sunshine, the subzero cold does not seem bad--in fact, if one were to take off one's gloves, one's hands might not feel all that cold with the sunshine reflecting off the snow. Nevertheless, there is real danger of frostbite if one does so for any appreciable period of time.

[donsutherland1]

It's so cold and because the streets are not heavily-traveled, outside the little town, the streets are covered by packed snow that has hardened into ice.

[Anonymous]

Jeb,

Enjoy the cold but don't take it for granted. Make sure you avoid frostbite if you're going to spend an extended period of time outdoors. I've spent a winter up in the Quebec province and under bright sunshine, the subzero cold does not seem bad--in fact, if one were to take off one's gloves, one's hands might not feel all that cold with the sunshine reflecting off the snow. Nevertheless, there is real danger of frostbite if one does so for any appreciable period of time.

I'll keep that in mind, Don. I cover up pretty good, but then this jebwalk around the Outer Rim of Potomac Mills Mall is 1.7 miles and it takes me about 30 to 40 minutes.

Last night was a little chilly but it was a walk in the park. It was downright enjoyable. I am probably getting used to the weather during my jebwalks by now, since I have been doing these jebwalks all last fall and now into the winter.

Thanks for the advice.



-ARCTIC FREEZE JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

We just cooled down to 17 degrees, dewpoint 9 degrees.

The crisp winter weather continues here in N VA




-ARCTIC FREEZE JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[JCT777]

Great discussion, Don. I hope your forecast works out.

[donsutherland1]

In this second part of the update, I'll focus on the Southwest and Pacific Northwest, which has been the center of winter storm activity for the first week of 2004 with the recent memorable storm.

Based on a combination of analogs, model guidance, ensembles, and teleconnection indices, I believe the next few weeks will see some big changes.

First the week now underway, as anticipated, will see temperatures moderate. Overall, I believe that the Northwest should see near normal to perhaps somewhat above normal readings while the Southwest sees near normal readings.

A welcome drying should also begin.

However, it does appear that the Southern Jet will become more active shortly so the precipitation could begin to return during the January 15-21 period or late in the current period.

Notice the latest satellite imagery:

<img src="http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif">

During the January 15-21 period, it would not surprise me if the cold tried to return, particularly to the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. There is both analog support and support in the ensemble guidance concerning the PNA for this.

However, I believe that the cold's presence, if it arrives, will be of a passing nature and probably will not be sustained for more than a few days. At this time, it is possible that the storm track could be into southern California or split with one track leading into BC and the other to southern California. Will this mean phasing opportunities down the road in the central part of the Country?

After January 22, I expect the remainder of the month to see readings average near normal to above normal in the Northwest and near normal in the Southwest. Storminess could return to the Pacific Northwest as the month nears an end.

All said, I expect temperatures in this region to average somewhat above normal by the time the month comes to an end.

My overall confidence in this is moderate.

[FLguy]

agreed. and nice discussion.

remember what we discussed yesterday with the SOI now heading back to negative and the enhanced convection with the MJO east of 120E...

the STJ will begin to undercut the PNA ridge...developing the split in the jet with the sub-tropical trough east of hawaii and allowing for the potential of heavier precipitation further south along the west coast than where we have been seeing it lately.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html

[FLguy]

the only problem that i do see is...when dealing with pattern retrogression...there is always the chance that toward the last week of JAN the ridge shifts off the west coast and the trough gets re-established in the west.

[donsutherland1]

FLguy,

Very important points. I'm wondering also whether there will be a trough in the West-ridge in the East configuration once the pattern breaks later this month. It's definitely a concern.

If so, my ideas for toward the end of the month will be in trouble with respect to the West. Overall, I'm more confident about the East than the West at this time.

[FLguy]

im not going to get bent out of shape yet just going by that...but like i said it does make me wonder if we are on the right track.

until more data supports it im going to stick to my previous ideas which are pretty much along the lines of yours. but it is suspect given the retrogression.

and the JAN 15-22 period is looking very active and quite interesting from the southern plains to new england.

[Anonymous]

That pattern retrogression could be a biiig fly in our winter ointment if the retrogression leads to a western trough and an eastern ridge. If that happens we could end up with a generally rotten February.......rain and seasonable, which for us will mean........40s and 50s and the occasional rainy storm.

I really hope that does not happen. It would be a true bummer.




JEB

[donsutherland1]

With regard to possible severe cold next week, if the 1/9/2004 0Z run of the GFS is accurate, that will be an understatement.

Check out the 850 mb temperatures:

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=166598">

Conservatively-speaking:

Boston: around -28C
New York City: around -25C

With some snowcover, that's easily subzero cold ( perhaps -10F to -7F for Boston and -5F to -2F for NYC).

I'm not so sure that things will go to that extreme, but this latest run only strengthens the argument that air even colder than that likely for Saturday may lie ahead late next week.

To borrow from Avril Lavigne, if the GFS is right--SECS or not--Winter 2003-04 is screaming out, "I want to be anything but ordinary please..."

[FLguy]

With regard to possible severe cold next week, if the 1/9/2004 0Z run of the GFS is accurate, that will be an understatement.

Check out the 850 mb temperatures:

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=166598">

Conservatively-speaking:

Boston: around -28C
New York City: around -25C

With some snowcover, that's easily subzero cold ( perhaps -10F to -7F for Boston and -5F to -2F for NYC).

I'm not so sure that things will go to that extreme, but this latest run only strengthens the argument that air even colder than that likely for Saturday may lie ahead late next week.

yep...along the lines of JAN 1994 and 1996.

the 0z operational GFS backed off on the WED-FRI event --- the PJ is too strong (courtesy of the intense 486 DM PV displaced well to the south) so the s/w coming through the flow is never given a chance to phase.



but notice the STJ energy sitting in the southwest. that may become VERY critical in determining what takes place the in the JAN 16-19 timeframe as it relates to the threat for a major snow event across the EUS. eventually that energy will get out of there and MAY have the chance to phase with a s/w digging into the rockies as we head toward the weekend of the 17th. among other complications.

[sertorius]

This is a great thread-thanks for all the information-I was just wondering (I'm a Latin/History teacher who likes to play with weather maps in class as a diversioin-my students like it!!!) if any of this cold air will make it to the central plains-It seems to be by some models it will (Like I said, my model reading is similar to the Kansas City Chief's play off record-Horrible) but a local met here today says we will have two days next week in the upper 30's, then a return to the 50's and possibly 60's for the rest of the week into the following week-he sees no threat of artic cold or snow (or rain for that matter-the dry slot continues!!) for quit a while if at all. I guess in the end, the weather will do what it wants!!! Thanks in advance if you get a chance to respond-have a great day!!

[donsutherland1]

Great post.

I'm still not yet ready to write off the 1/15-16 as a possible one for a good snowfall but we'll have to see how the later model runs handle it. Certainly the idea of 1994-style cold in the East continues to look increasingly good.

[donsutherland1]

Sertorius,

I believe that the cold will return to the Central Plains at least for a time, particularly during the January 15-21 period. However, I'm not sure that it will reach or make it much farther west than Dodge City for any sustained period.

[sertorius]

Thanks so much for your response-I live in Lawrence so I'm pretty far East-hopefully it will lock in on us for a time-I notice that the 8-10 day GFS (it is the GFS!!!) has us in some very cold air-The local met out of Kansas City just got me thinking a little and I had to post my thoughts-thanks again!!!